Guide To Economic Projections And Forecasts
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Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Guide To Economic Projections And Forecasts
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Author : United States. Office of Regional Development Planning
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1968
Guide To Economic Projections And Forecasts written by United States. Office of Regional Development Planning and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1968 with Economic forecasting categories.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : G. Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2006-07-14
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.
Uncertainty Bands A Guide To Predicting And Regulating Economic Processes
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Author : Ashot Tavadyan
language : en
Publisher: Anthem Press
Release Date : 2022-06-14
Uncertainty Bands A Guide To Predicting And Regulating Economic Processes written by Ashot Tavadyan and has been published by Anthem Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-14 with Business & Economics categories.
With the increasing role of economic uncertainty, improving the efficiency of forecasts is ever so important. This book makes suggestions on how to evaluate the key economic indicators under uncertainty. It presents the interval method to study economic indicators, which will allow us to understand the possibilities of forecasting and the irregular nature of the economy. It is shown that with the accumulation of negative phenomena in a seemingly stable situation the effect of a compressed spring may snap into action. The book outlines the uncertainty relations in the economy, the minimal uncertainty interval, the effect of an expanding uncertainty band, sensitivity thresholds, as well as the principles of systematization and forecasting of economic indicators. The book presents ways to facilitate economic development, assess the quality of a forecast, and increase the efficiency of forecasts and decision-making in conditions of uncertainty.
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis
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Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-01-04
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
State And Local Population Projections
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Author : Stanley K. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2005-12-21
State And Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-12-21 with Social Science categories.
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
World Economic Outlook October 2020
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-10-13
World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Financial Forecasting Analysis And Modelling
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Author : Michael Samonas
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-01-20
Financial Forecasting Analysis And Modelling written by Michael Samonas and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Newnes
Release Date : 2013-08-23
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Newnes this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics