Household Debt And House Prices At Risk A Tale Of Two Countries
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Household Debt And House Prices At Risk A Tale Of Two Countries
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Author : Mr.Adrian Alter
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-28
Household Debt And House Prices At Risk A Tale Of Two Countries written by Mr.Adrian Alter and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt.
Housing Household Debt And The Business Cycle
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Author : Amir Sufi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Housing Household Debt And The Business Cycle written by Amir Sufi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with Business cycles categories.
China and South Korea both experienced substantial increases in household debt through 2021, and now both countries face a weakening economy. This essay gleans lessons from the "credit-driven household demand channel" (e.g., Mian and Sufi 2018) to explore how the two economies will fare in the years ahead. On the positive side, neither country is at risk of a severe financial crisis, and both countries have a strong current account position. On the negative side, consumer spending in both countries could be quite weak in the years ahead. For China, the biggest risk is that distortions in the production sector aimed at boosting the property market were a major driver of growth during the boom, and it is unclear how growth can continue to be sustained with the property market stumbling.
Predicting Downside Risks To House Prices And Macro Financial Stability
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Author : Andrea Deghi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-01-17
Predicting Downside Risks To House Prices And Macro Financial Stability written by Andrea Deghi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-01-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Hot Property
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Author : Rob Nijskens
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-06-14
Hot Property written by Rob Nijskens and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Macroeconomic Implications Of Rising Household Debt
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Author : Guy Debelle
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Macroeconomic Implications Of Rising Household Debt written by Guy Debelle and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Consumer credit categories.
Assessing Macro Financial Risks Of Household Debt In China
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Author : Mr.Fei Han
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-27
Assessing Macro Financial Risks Of Household Debt In China written by Mr.Fei Han and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households’ debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.
House Price Cycles
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Author : Man Cho
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
House Price Cycles written by Man Cho and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Housing And The Financial Crisis
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Author : Edward L. Glaeser
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2013-08-19
Housing And The Financial Crisis written by Edward L. Glaeser and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Evidence And Innovation In Housing Law And Policy
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Author : Lee Anne Fennell
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Evidence And Innovation In Housing Law And Policy written by Lee Anne Fennell and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This interdisciplinary volume illuminates housing's impact on both wealth and community, and examines legal and policy responses to current challenges. Also available as Open Access.