Predicting Downside Risks To House Prices And Macro Financial Stability
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Predicting Downside Risks To House Prices And Macro Financial Stability
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Author : Andrea Deghi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-01-17
Predicting Downside Risks To House Prices And Macro Financial Stability written by Andrea Deghi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-01-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Global Financial Stability Report April 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-04-10
Global Financial Stability Report April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative. As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks. The report attempts to provide a comprehensive assessment of these vulnerabilities while focusing specifically on corporate sector debt in advanced economies, the sovereign–financial sector nexus in the euro area, China’s financial imbalances, volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets, and downside risks to the housing market. These vulnerabilities require action by policymakers, including through the clear communication of any changes in their monetary policy outlook, the deployment and expansion of macroprudential tools, the stepping up of measures to repair public and private sector balance sheets, and the strengthening of emerging market resilience to foreign portfolio outflows. This GFSR also takes an in depth look at house prices at risk, a measure of downside risks to future house price growth—using theory, insights from past analyses, and new statistical techniques applied to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities. The chapter finds that lower house price momentum, overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions predict heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead. The measure of house prices at risk helps forecast downside risks to GDP growth and adds to early-warning models for financial crises. Policymakers can use estimates of house prices at risk to complement other surveillance indicators of housing market vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy actions aimed at building buffers and reducing vulnerabilities. Downside risks to house prices could also be relevant for monetary policymakers when forming their views on the downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. Authorities considering measures to manage capital flows might also find such information useful when a surge in capital inflows increases downside risks to house prices and when other policy options are limited.
Global Financial Stability Report April 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-04-10
Global Financial Stability Report April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative. As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks. The report attempts to provide a comprehensive assessment of these vulnerabilities while focusing specifically on corporate sector debt in advanced economies, the sovereign–financial sector nexus in the euro area, China’s financial imbalances, volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets, and downside risks to the housing market. These vulnerabilities require action by policymakers, including through the clear communication of any changes in their monetary policy outlook, the deployment and expansion of macroprudential tools, the stepping up of measures to repair public and private sector balance sheets, and the strengthening of emerging market resilience to foreign portfolio outflows. This GFSR also takes an in depth look at house prices at risk, a measure of downside risks to future house price growth—using theory, insights from past analyses, and new statistical techniques applied to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities. The chapter finds that lower house price momentum, overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions predict heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead. The measure of house prices at risk helps forecast downside risks to GDP growth and adds to early-warning models for financial crises. Policymakers can use estimates of house prices at risk to complement other surveillance indicators of housing market vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy actions aimed at building buffers and reducing vulnerabilities. Downside risks to house prices could also be relevant for monetary policymakers when forming their views on the downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. Authorities considering measures to manage capital flows might also find such information useful when a surge in capital inflows increases downside risks to house prices and when other policy options are limited.
House Prices And The Macroeconomy
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Author : Charles Goodhart
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2007
House Prices And The Macroeconomy written by Charles Goodhart and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Commercial Real Estate And Financial Stability Evidence From The Us Banking Sector
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Author : Mr. Salih Fendoglu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-26
Commercial Real Estate And Financial Stability Evidence From The Us Banking Sector written by Mr. Salih Fendoglu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This note analyzes the implications of changes in commercial real estate (CRE) prices for the stability of the US banking sector. Using detailed bank-level and CRE price data for US metropolitan statistical areas, the analysis shows that, following a decline in CRE prices, banks with greater exposures to CRE loans perform worse than their counterparts, experiencing higher non-performing CRE loans, lower revenues, and lower capital. These effects are particularly pronounced if the drop in CRE prices turns out to be persistent because of possible structural shifts in CRE demand—for example, because of an increased trend toward e-commerce and teleworking—even after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is over. The impact of a decline in CRE prices is especially true for small and community banks, which tend to have the highest CRE loan exposures. While the US banking sector has remained resilient during the pandemic crisis due to strong capital buffers and massive policy support, these findings suggest that continued vigilance is warranted with regard to potential downside risks to CRE prices amidst ongoing structural shifts in the sector.
Household Debt And House Prices At Risk A Tale Of Two Countries
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Author : Mr.Adrian Alter
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-28
Household Debt And House Prices At Risk A Tale Of Two Countries written by Mr.Adrian Alter and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt.
Singapore
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-15
Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Singapore highlights the attractiveness of Singapore as a financial center is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, sound economic policies, and a sophisticated financial oversight framework. The financial system is exposed to global and regional macrofinancial shocks through significant trade and financial channels but appears resilient even under adverse scenarios. However, banks’ US dollar liquidity is vulnerable to stress conditions. Fintech developments so far have focused on partnerships with existing financial institutions and do not appear to contribute significantly to systemic risk. Singapore authorities should continue to enhance its strong oversight of the financial system. Strengthening the framework for resolution and safety nets, namely by devoting more resources to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’ Resolution Unit; and enhancing the oversight of MAS Electronic Payments System by ensuring more staffing resources are two other important areas for action.
Japan Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note On Systemic Risk Analysis And Stress Testing
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-05-13
Japan Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note On Systemic Risk Analysis And Stress Testing written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The Japanese financial system has remained resilient through a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan’s large and globally well-integrated financial system withstood the pandemic shock, aided by strong capital and liquidity buffers and extensive policy support. Credit provision to the private sector has remained robust since the pandemic, supporting a steady economic recovery.
Germany
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-08-03
Germany written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Germany’s macroprudential policy framework and toolkit are well developed. The FSAP found the institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy to be mostly sound and operating well. Capacity and expertise in risk monitoring is good, thanks to the analytical power and data access of the central bank, and close coordination between the macro- and microprudential arms of the financial supervisory authorities. Germany’s macroprudential toolkit continues to develop. The principal outstanding task is to add powers to set caps on debt-to-income and debt service-to-income ratios on residential real estate loans to the already-established powers over loan-to-value ratios and amortization rates. These additions will place Germany’s toolkit on a par with its peers.
Ireland
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-09
Ireland written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Ireland is a small open economy that is part of a monetary union and has a major financial system. Within the Euro Area (EA), Ireland comprises a relatively small proportion of aggregate GDP (3.4 percent), of which a significant portion is attributable to foreign-owned multinational enterprises (MNEs). Yet, the Irish financial system holds assets of EUR 7.9 trillion, over 18 times GDP. Since monetary policy is carried out by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the entire EA, macroprudential policy has the potential to play a critical stabilizing role for the Irish financial system.