How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles
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How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles
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Author : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-11-25
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.
We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls.
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles
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Author : Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles written by Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
How Do Business And Financial Cycles Interact
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Author : Mr.Marco Terrones
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
How Do Business And Financial Cycles Interact written by Mr.Marco Terrones and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.
From Banking To Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-22
From Banking To Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications
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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-30
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Principles
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Author : Ray Dalio
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2018-08-07
Principles written by Ray Dalio and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-07 with Business & Economics categories.
#1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.
Guidelines For Public Debt Management Amended
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-09-12
Guidelines For Public Debt Management Amended written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-09-12 with Business & Economics categories.
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The Liquidation Of Government Debt
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Author : Ms. Carmen Reinhart
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-21
The Liquidation Of Government Debt written by Ms. Carmen Reinhart and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative ½ of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.