How To Predict Everything
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How To Predict Everything
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2019-06-06
How To Predict Everything written by William Poundstone and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-06 with Mathematics categories.
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?
The Doomsday Calculation
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
Release Date : 2019-06-04
The Doomsday Calculation written by William Poundstone and has been published by Little, Brown Spark this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-04 with Science categories.
From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.
Predictive Analytics
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Author : Eric Siegel
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-01-13
Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-13 with Business & Economics categories.
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
The Simpsons Secret
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Author : Lydia Poulteney
language : en
Publisher: Mango Media Inc.
Release Date : 2021-09-28
The Simpsons Secret written by Lydia Poulteney and has been published by Mango Media Inc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-28 with Humor categories.
Have You Ever Wondered How “The Simpsons” Predict the Future? “Did The Simpsons really, truly predict anything? I predict you’ll have to purchase this book to get the true story.” ―Bill Oakley, Simpsons writer and producer #1 New Release in Animated Movies, Comedy Movies, and Comedy Television Then, The Simpsons Secret is the book for you. Delve into some of the biggest predictions that came true on the show, and just how the Simpsons predict the future. Simpson predictions from three-eyed fish to presidential elections. "The Simpsons" has been predicting major events with scary accuracy for over three decades. From Donald Trump's presidency to Disney buying 20th Century Fox (...years before it happened!). People just can't seem to get enough and are eager to know what they are going to predict next. This book goes behind the scenes of this adored cartoon series, and the family we’ve grown to love. Between Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa, and the rest of the Simpsons family, the show has stolen our hearts, and also left us amazed at how often the Simpsons predict the future! So how do they do it? Is it a crystal ball? A fountain of knowledge? Have the writers gained the ability to travel through time? As shocking as it may seem, the answer is actually a little simpler than that. The cartoon crew is not in a secret society that can see the future, nor have they mastered the art of time travel. In The Simpsons Secret, learn more about: How The Simpsons are able to predict so many major events How the show writers and producers come up with these ideas And so much more about your favorite old-school cartoon family If you enjoyed books like Springfield Confidential, The Simpsons Family History, Friends Forever, or The Office, you’ll love The Simpsons Secret.
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24
Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-24 with Social Science categories.
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
The Signal And The Noise
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Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27
The Signal And The Noise written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year “Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
The Everything Tarot Book
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Author : Skye Alexander
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2006-08-09
The Everything Tarot Book written by Skye Alexander and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-08-09 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.
Realize your psychic potential with the Tarot! Everyone is psychic to one degree or another. And with The Everything Tarot Book, 2nd Edition, you’ll unlock the mysteries of the cards and thus boost your innate psychic abilities. Completely revised, this easy-to-use guide has everything you need to conduct complete Tarot readings for yourself and others. The Tarot deck has been used for centuries to divine the future and as a guide to spiritual development. Now you can learn how to interpret the images on the cards, arrange them into meaningful spreads, and unleash your hidden psychic powers. Each individual card in the Major and Minor Arcana is described in detail, along with the history of the Tarot from ancient times to the present. The Everything Tarot Book, 2nd Edition helps you: -Gain insight into yourself and other people -See into the future and the present more clearly -Understand the effects of the past -Work through personal problems and challenges -Develop your intuition -Enhance your connection with your Higher Self Explore. Engage your curiosity. Use your imagination. Keep an open mind and an open heart. Your future really is in the cards!
Physics Of The Future
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Author : Michio Kaku
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2011-05-05
Physics Of The Future written by Michio Kaku and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05-05 with Science categories.
The international bestselling author of Physics of the Impossible gives us a stunning and provocative vision of the future Based on interviews with over three hundred of the world's top scientists, who are already inventing the future in their labs, Kaku-in a lucid and engaging fashion-presents the revolutionary developments in medicine, computers, quantum physics, and space travel that will forever change our way of life and alter the course of civilization itself. His astonishing revelations include: The Internet will be in your contact lens. It will recognize people's faces, display their biographies, and even translate their words into subtitles. You will control computers and appliances via tiny sensors that pick up your brain scans. You will be able to rearrange the shape of objects. Sensors in your clothing, bathroom, and appliances will monitor your vitals, and nanobots will scan your DNA and cells for signs of danger, allowing life expectancy to increase dramatically. Radically new spaceships, using laser propulsion, may replace the expensive chemical rockets of today. You may be able to take an elevator hundreds of miles into space by simply pushing the "up" button. Like Physics of the Impossible and Visions before it, Physics of the Future is an exhilarating, wondrous ride through the next one hundred years of breathtaking scientific revolution. Internationally acclaimed physicist Dr Michio Kaku holds the Henry Semat Chair in Theoretical Physics at the City University of New York. He is also an international bestselling author, his books including Hyperspace and Parallel Worlds, and a distinguished writer, having featured in Time, the Wall Street Journal, the Sunday Times and the New Scientist to name but a few. Dr Kaku also hosts his own radio show, 'Science Fantastic', and recently presented the BBC's popular series 'Time'.
A Song For A New Day
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Author : Sarah Pinsker
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2019-09-10
A Song For A New Day written by Sarah Pinsker and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-10 with Fiction categories.
WINNER OF THE NEBULA AWARD After a global pandemic makes public gatherings illegal and concerts impossible, except for those willing to break the law for the love of music—and for one chance at human connection. In the Before, when the government didn't prohibit large public gatherings, Luce Cannon was on top of the world. One of her songs had just taken off and she was on her way to becoming a star. Now, in the After, terror attacks and deadly viruses have led the government to ban concerts, and Luce's connection to the world--her music, her purpose—is closed off forever. She does what she has to do: she performs in illegal concerts to a small but passionate community, always evading the law. Rosemary Laws barely remembers the Before times. She spends her days in Hoodspace, helping customers order all of their goods online for drone delivery—no physical contact with humans needed. By lucky chance, she finds a new job and a new calling: discover amazing musicians and bring their concerts to everyone via virtual reality. The only catch is that she'll have to do something she's never done before and go out in public. Find the illegal concerts and bring musicians into the limelight they deserve. But when she sees how the world could actually be, that won’t be enough.
Sensing The Future
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Author : Trish MacGregor
language : en
Publisher: Crossroad Press
Release Date : 2020-05-01
Sensing The Future written by Trish MacGregor and has been published by Crossroad Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-01 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.
Discover Your Untapped Potential to Predict the Future Have you ever had a hunch that became reality? You may be ignoring signs from the universe about what is to come. Trish and Rob MacGregor, authors and founders of the blog Synchro Secrets, explain how to train your brain and recognize signs in order to enhance your innate precognitive abilities. Over 400 years ago, Nostradamus wrote predictions that are still relevant, and even today, there are those who experience dreams and physical symptoms prior to catastrophic events such as 9/11. Whether you have had prophetic dreams about a loved one or wish to learn more about these mysterious abilities, Sensing the Future will show you how to harness the power of your intuition. We all have the ability to predict the future if we open ourselves up to the signs of the universe.