How Useful Is Okun S Law
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How Useful Is Okun S Law
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Author : Edward S. Knotek
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2008-05
How Useful Is Okun S Law written by Edward S. Knotek and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-05 with Business & Economics categories.
From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the U.S. grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% As expected, unemployment during the period fell. Over the course of the next year, average growth slowed to less than half its earlier rate -- but unemployment continued to drift downward. This situation presented a puzzle, who expected the unemployment rate to increase as the economy slowed. This negative correlation between GDP growth & unemployment has been named ¿Okun¿s law.¿ This article considers the usefulness of Okun¿s law for policymakers & economists. Okun¿s relationship can be useful as a forecasting tool -- provided that one takes its instability into account. Charts & tables.
Okun S Law
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-14
Okun S Law written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Time Series Assignment The Significance Of Okun S Law In Forecasting Economic Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2024-03-15
Time Series Assignment The Significance Of Okun S Law In Forecasting Economic Growth written by and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-15 with Political Science categories.
Academic Paper from the year 2022 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 93, University of Cape Town (Commerce), course: Quantitative Methods for Economists, language: English, abstract: This paper aims to analyse the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth in the United States of America (US) which can be explained by the Okun’s law. It uses time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment to test the significance of Okun’s law in forecasting economic fluctuations in the country. With the aid of data analysis and several regressions, this paper finds resounding evidence to conclude that despite the widespread popularity, acceptance and applicability of the Okun’s law, it is not the most effective forecasting tool for economic growth in the US.
Okun S Law Development And Demographics Differences In The Cyclical Sensitivities Of Unemployment Across Economy And Worker Groups
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Author : Zidong An
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
Okun S Law Development And Demographics Differences In The Cyclical Sensitivities Of Unemployment Across Economy And Worker Groups written by Zidong An and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Do Forecasters Believe In Okun S Law An Assessment Of Unemployment And Output Forecasts
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-10
Do Forecasters Believe In Okun S Law An Assessment Of Unemployment And Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
Time Series Assignment The Significance Of Okun S Law In Forecasting Economic Growth
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Author : Anonymous
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2024-02-28
Time Series Assignment The Significance Of Okun S Law In Forecasting Economic Growth written by Anonymous and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Academic Paper from the year 2022 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 93, University of Cape Town (Commerce), course: Quantitative Methods for Economists, language: English, abstract: This paper aims to analyse the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth in the United States of America (US) which can be explained by the Okun's law. It uses time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment to test the significance of Okun's law in forecasting economic fluctuations in the country. With the aid of data analysis and several regressions, this paper finds resounding evidence to conclude that despite the widespread popularity, acceptance and applicability of the Okun's law, it is not the most effective forecasting tool for economic growth in the US.
Equality And Efficiency Rev
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Author : Arthur M. Okun
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 2015-04-30
Equality And Efficiency Rev written by Arthur M. Okun and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Originally published in 1975, Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff is a very personal work from one of the most important macroeconomists of the last hundred years. And this new edition includes "Further Thoughts on Equality and Efficiency," a paper published by the author two years later. In classrooms Arthur M. Okun may be best remembered for Okun's Law, but his lasting legacy is the respect and admiration he earned from economists, practitioners, and policymakers. Equality and Efficiency is the perfect embodiment of that legacy, valued both by professional economists and those readers with a keen interest in social policy. To his fellow economists, Okun presents messages, in the form of additional comments and select citations, in his footnotes. To all readers, Okun presents an engaging dual theme: the market needs a place, and the market needs to be kept in its place. As Okun puts it: Institutions in a capitalist democracy prod us to get ahead of our neighbors economically after telling us to stay in line socially. This double standard professes and pursues an egalitarian political and social system while simultaneously generating gaping disparities in economic well-being. Today, Okun's dual theme feels incredibly prescient as we grapple with the hot-button topic of income inequality. In his foreword, Lawrence H. Summers declares: On what one might think of as questions of "economic philosophy," I doubt that Okun has been improved on in the subsequent interval. His discussion of how societies rely on rights as well as markets should be required reading for all young economists who are enamored with market solutions to all problems. With a new foreword by Lawrence H. Summers
Political Economy Perspectives On The Greek Crisis
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Author : Ioannis Bournakis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-27
Political Economy Perspectives On The Greek Crisis written by Ioannis Bournakis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This book offers a comprehensive guide to the on-going Greek debt crisis. It identifies and explains Greece’s idiosyncratic weaknesses, and highlights the existing rigidities in the EU architecture that make the recovery prospects of the Greek economy challenging. Chapters from expert contributors highlight aspects of the performance of the Greek economy with focus on export performance, labour market conditions, political cycles and regional income disparities. The book then goes on to outline the banking system in Greece in the post-crisis era, and includes analysis that explains how the credit rating score affected Greece’s borrowing capacity prior to the start of the insolvency crisis. The final part analyses and compares alternative scenarios of fiscal consolidation, seeking to identify whether there are alternatives to fiscal austerity and the impact of each one of them. This section also clarifies various misconceptions about the significant determinants of international competitiveness. Despite the focus of the book, the lessons drawn from the chapters are not limited to Greece. This volume will be of interest to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to take a closer look at the Greek debt crisis and learn more about the challenges the Greek economy is currently facing.
Reconstructing Macroeconomics
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Author : Masanao Aoki
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-08-29
Reconstructing Macroeconomics written by Masanao Aoki and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
In this book, the authors reconceptualize existing macroeconomics by treating equilibria as statistical distributions, not as fixed points.
The Financialization Of Gdp
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Author : Jacob Assa
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-08-12
The Financialization Of Gdp written by Jacob Assa and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other statistics based on national income accounting are ubiquitous but rarely understood today. GDP has been criticized for many reasons, including not reflecting well-being, leaving out the costs of environmental pollution, and not counting unpaid work, but on purely economic terms it has been mostly accepted as an indicator of economic performance. In recent decades, however, GDP has diverged dramatically from economic trends such as employment and median income. This book argues that GDP is flawed even as a narrow economic indicator, and traces the problem to the way financial services are measured. The first part of the book is a political history of the practice of national accounting from its beginning in the mid-17th century to present day, and explores how such income estimates were constructed for political reasons. The Financialization of GDP presents the practice of estimating national income as a historically and political contingent craft - driven by power and not only theory - culminating in the rise of the financial sector and the concomitant inclusion of financial services in GDP in 1993.. The second part of the book focuses on the treatment of financial services in national accounting and develops an adjusted measure of output (Final Domestic Product or FDP) – which treats financial revenues as intermediate inputs (or costs) to the economy as a whole. The final part of the book explores the empirical and policy implications of treating finance as an overall cost to the economy. This volume shows that the Great Moderation of volatility was a statistical artefact; Okun’s Law (relating changes in output and unemployment) never died, and even provides early signs for the Great Recession which analysts using standard GDP did not see. This book is of great interest to those who study political economy and macroeconomics.