How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions
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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions
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Author : Zidong An
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-03-05
How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions written by Zidong An and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Beating The Business Cycle
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Author : Lakshman Achuthan
language : en
Publisher: Crown Currency
Release Date : 2004-05-18
Beating The Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and has been published by Crown Currency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-05-18 with Business & Economics categories.
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Does The Term Structure Predict Recessions
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Author : Henri Bernard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Does The Term Structure Predict Recessions written by Henri Bernard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Economic forecasting categories.
A New Way Of Forecasting Recessions
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Author : Edward E. Leamer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
A New Way Of Forecasting Recessions written by Edward E. Leamer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on a statistical model, the most recent data are then probabilistically inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new method deals with these intra-correlation issues. The one variable that is causing a recession alarm is inflation. The unemployment rate is also alarming if the covid-19 data are omitted. The slope of the yield curve, the three-month Treasury yield, and housing starts are all two or three years from the end of the expansion. A probit model that conducts a "horse race" among these five variables reveals it is the bond market variables that best predict recessions. This leaves the Fed under control, but the 1970s data suggests it takes a recession to combat high inflation.
Economic Modeling In The Post Great Recession Era
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Author : John E. Silvia
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2017-01-04
Economic Modeling In The Post Great Recession Era written by John E. Silvia and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
Business Cycles Indicators And Forecasting
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Author : James H. Stock
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Business Cycles Indicators And Forecasting written by James H. Stock and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Recessions
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Author : Nerea M. Pérez
language : en
Publisher: Nova Science Publishers
Release Date : 2009
Recessions written by Nerea M. Pérez and has been published by Nova Science Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
A critical consideration in understanding business cycles is the amplification and propagation of shocks to the economic system. Many recessions seem to arise without a clearly identifiable cause or at least one of significant magnitude to justify an economy-wide recession. How can a small shock cause large changes in the economy? What are the mechanisms that amplify a modest shock such that a serious recession ensues? Despite the persistent search for a mechanism for business cycle amplification and propagation, much research in business cycles seems to ignore the likely role of the financial system. If a shock to the economy inhibits the capital allocation capability of an economy, then a seemingly mild shock may be amplified through its impact on new investment thereby snuffing out economic growth and causing a recession. This book provides new research on the field of recessions from around the globe.
Using Mixed Frequency Data To Forecast Recessions And Gdp
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Author : Ryan Mitchell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Using Mixed Frequency Data To Forecast Recessions And Gdp written by Ryan Mitchell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This dissertation studies how and if mixed frequency time series data should be used to forecast recessions in the US and Canada, as well as GDP in a selection of OECD countries. The first chapter combines daily and weekly financial data with monthly macroeconomic indicators in a mixed frequency probit (MFP) regression to forecast and nowcast US and Canadian recessions. This chapter adds to the existing literature in multiple ways, including; developing a mixed frequency binary model that could be helpful for topics outside of recession forecasting, examining how higher frequency data should be weighted in the context of recession prediction, as well as a methodology that can nowcast current economic conditions. Overall I find significant improvements in the forecasting and nowcasting accuracy of recessions when using mixed frequency data, compared to a benchmark model that aggregates data into the same frequency. The second chapter extends from the first to apply machine learning techniques to the same problem. I add to the existing literature by incorporating mixed frequency data directly into a classification artificial neural network (MF-ANN) as well as using novel cross validation methods to tune hyperparameters and carry out feature selection with time series data. Overall when comparing US recession forecasting results to the reduced form methodology of Chapter 1, I find mixed results. While some metrics indicate similar performance between the two methods, the ANN makes less extreme forecasting errors on average. The third chapter uses a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) approach with a mixed frequency framework to forecast GDP of 10 OECD countries. This chapter adds to the literature as a way to efficiently include cross country information in GDP forecasting equations, as well as being an effective methodology when the researcher is constrained by small sample sizes. Overall we find that SUR outperforms OLS for the majority of countries and forecasting horizons, however as sample sizes are extended this benefit is reduced.
The Economics Of Recession
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Author : Arturo Estrella
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
The Economics Of Recession written by Arturo Estrella and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Recessions categories.
This timely two-volume set offers a broad selection of important readings from the existing literature addressing several fundamental questions about recessions. These include what a recession is, the causes and effects of recessions, how to identify and predict recessions, and how to manage the associated risks. An original introduction by the editor provides a general overview of the subject, detailed analysis of the readings, discussion of policy implications and acknowledgement of the areas where further research is required. This authoritative collection will be an invaluable source of reference for academics, scholars and practitioners alike.
Futures Past
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Author : Ulrich Fritsche
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Futures Past written by Ulrich Fritsche and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Economic forecasting categories.
"Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis. Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost its importance. Futures Past considers the history and present state of economic forecasting, giving a fascinating account of the changing practices involved, their origins, records, and their implications. By bringing together economists, historians, and sociologists, this volume offers fresh perspectives on the place of forecasting in modern industrial societies, thereby making a broader claim for greater interdisciplinary cooperation in the history of economics"--
