Ignorance And Uncertainty
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Ignorance And Uncertainty
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Author : Michael Smithson
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Ignorance And Uncertainty written by Michael Smithson and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Computers categories.
Ignorance and Uncertainty overviews a variety of approaches to the problem of indeterminacies in human thought and behavior. This book examines, in depth, trends in the psychology of judgment and decision-making under uncertainty or ignorance. Research from the fields of cognitive psychology, social psychology, organizational studies, sociology, and social anthroplogy are reviewed here in anticipation of what Dr. Smithson characterizes as the beginning of a "creative dialogue between these researchers". Ignorance and Uncertainty offers the conceptual framework for understanding the paradigms associated with current research. It discusses the ways in which attitudes toward ignorance and uncertainty are changing, and addresses issues previously ignored.
Ignorance And Uncertainty
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Author : Olivier Compte
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2019
Ignorance And Uncertainty written by Olivier Compte and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Business & Economics categories.
Proposes novel methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling without complex mathematics.
Uncertainty And Risk
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Author : Gabriele Bammer
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2012-05-04
Uncertainty And Risk written by Gabriele Bammer and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.
Subjective Logic
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Author : Audun Jøsang
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-10-27
Subjective Logic written by Audun Jøsang and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-27 with Computers categories.
This is the first comprehensive treatment of subjective logic and all its operations. The author developed the approach, and in this book he first explains subjective opinions, opinion representation, and decision-making under vagueness and uncertainty, and he then offers a full definition of subjective logic, harmonising the key notations and formalisms, concluding with chapters on trust networks and subjective Bayesian networks, which when combined form general subjective networks. The author shows how real-world situations can be realistically modelled with regard to how situations are perceived, with conclusions that more correctly reflect the ignorance and uncertainties that result from partially uncertain input arguments. The book will help researchers and practitioners to advance, improve and apply subjective logic to build powerful artificial reasoning models and tools for solving real-world problems. A good grounding in discrete mathematics is a prerequisite.
Ignorance And Surprise
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Author : Matthias Gross
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2010-05-07
Ignorance And Surprise written by Matthias Gross and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-07 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The relationship between ignorance and surprise and a conceptual framework for dealing with the unexpected, as seen in ecological design projects. Ignorance and surprise belong together: surprises can make people aware of their own ignorance. And yet, perhaps paradoxically, a surprising event in scientific research—one that defies prediction or risk assessment—is often a window to new and unexpected knowledge. In this book, Matthias Gross examines the relationship between ignorance and surprise, proposing a conceptual framework for handling the unexpected and offering case studies of ecological design that demonstrate the advantages of allowing for surprises and including ignorance in the design and negotiation processes. Gross draws on classical and contemporary sociological accounts of ignorance and surprise in science and ecology and integrates these with the idea of experiment in society. He develops a notion of how unexpected occurrences can be incorporated into a model of scientific and technological development that includes the experimental handling of surprises. Gross discusses different projects in ecological design, including Chicago's restoration of the shoreline of Lake Michigan and Germany's revitalization of brownfields near Leipzig. These cases show how ignorance and surprise can successfully play out in ecological design projects, and how the acknowledgment of the unknown can become a part of decision making. The appropriation of surprises can lead to robust design strategies. Ecological design, Gross argues, is neither a linear process of master planning nor a process of trial and error but a carefully coordinated process of dealing with unexpected turns by means of experimental practice.
Elicitation Of Expert Opinions For Uncertainty And Risks
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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2001-06-27
Elicitation Of Expert Opinions For Uncertainty And Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-06-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w
Ignorance And Uncertainty
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Author : Michael Smithson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989-05-01
Ignorance And Uncertainty written by Michael Smithson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-05-01 with categories.
Ignorance
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Author : Stuart Firestein
language : en
Publisher: OUP USA
Release Date : 2012-04-23
Ignorance written by Stuart Firestein and has been published by OUP USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-23 with Philosophy categories.
Contrary to the popular view of science as a mountainous accumulation of facts and data, Stuart Firestein takes the novel perspective that ignorance is the main product and driving force of science, and that this is the best way to understand the process of scientific discovery.
Routledge International Handbook Of Ignorance Studies
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Author : Matthias Gross
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-05-15
Routledge International Handbook Of Ignorance Studies written by Matthias Gross and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Once treated as the absence of knowledge, ignorance today has become a highly influential topic in its own right, commanding growing attention across the natural and social sciences where a wide range of scholars have begun to explore the social life and political issues involved in the distribution and strategic use of not knowing. The field is growing fast and this handbook reflects this interdisciplinary field of study by drawing contributions from economics, sociology, history, philosophy, cultural studies, anthropology, feminist studies, and related fields in order to serve as a seminal guide to the political, legal and social uses of ignorance in social and political life. Chapter 33 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license available here: https://tandfbis.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/rt-files/docs/Open+Access+Chapters/9780415718967_oachapter33.pdf
Living With Uncertainty
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Author : Michael J. Zimmerman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-06-10
Living With Uncertainty written by Michael J. Zimmerman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-06-10 with Philosophy categories.
Every choice we make is set against a background of massive ignorance about our past, our future, our circumstances, and ourselves. Philosophers are divided on the moral significance of such ignorance. Some say that it has a direct impact on how we ought to behave - the question of what our moral obligations are; others deny this, claiming that it only affects how we ought to be judged in light of the behaviour in which we choose to engage - the question of what responsibility we bear for our choices. Michael Zimmerman claims that our ignorance has an important bearing on both questions, and offers an account of moral obligation and moral responsibility that is sharply at odds with the prevailing wisdom. His book will be of interest to a wide range of readers in ethics.