Imf Estimates Of Potential Output

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A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output

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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-07

A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.

The Negative Mean Output Gap

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Author : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-08-23

The Negative Mean Output Gap written by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple New Keynesian model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Using the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias because they assume a zero mean. The bias is especially large in deep recessions when potential output tends to be most severely underestimated.

Imf Estimates Of Potential Output

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Author : Ms.Paula De Masi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-12-01

Imf Estimates Of Potential Output written by Ms.Paula De Masi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.

The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment

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Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-05-04

The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

World Economic Outlook October 2013

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-08

World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Hysteresis And Business Cycles

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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29

Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Staff Studies For The World Economic Outlook 1997

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-01-16

Staff Studies For The World Economic Outlook 1997 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-01-16 with Business & Economics categories.

These studies provide supporting material for the analysis and scenarios in the World Economic Outlook.

World Economic Outlook October 2020

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-10-13

World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-13 with Business & Economics categories.

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Okun S Law Development And Demographics Differences In The Cyclical Sensitivities Of Unemployment Across Economy And Worker Groups

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Author : Zidong An
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12

Okun S Law Development And Demographics Differences In The Cyclical Sensitivities Of Unemployment Across Economy And Worker Groups written by Zidong An and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.

The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The Euro Area And The United States

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Author : Ali Alichi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-01

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The Euro Area And The United States written by Ali Alichi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The authors would like to thank the European Department of the IMF for helpful comments. All errors and omissions are our own.