Inflation Forecasts
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How To Improve Inflation Forecasting In Canada
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Author : Mr.Troy D Matheson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-13
How To Improve Inflation Forecasting In Canada written by Mr.Troy D Matheson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear to mask large and offsetting errors related to the output gap and the policy interest rate, partly reflecting a tendency to overestimate the neutral nominal policy rate in real time. Faced with these uncertainties, the Governing Council’s gradual approach to changing its policy settings appears to have served it well.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Are Inflation Targets Good Inflation Forecasts
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Author : Marie Diron
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2009
Are Inflation Targets Good Inflation Forecasts written by Marie Diron and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts. Tables and figures.
Inflation Forecast Targeting
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Author : Kevin Clinton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-24
Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Kevin Clinton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.
Simulating Inflation Forecasting In Real Time
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Author : Mr.Jens R. Clausen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-02-01
Simulating Inflation Forecasting In Real Time written by Mr.Jens R. Clausen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.
A Comparison Of Australian Inflation Forecasts
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Author : Ramya Hewarathna
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
A Comparison Of Australian Inflation Forecasts written by Ramya Hewarathna and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Economic forecasting categories.
Setting The Operational Framework For Producing Inflation Forecasts
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Author : Eric Parrado
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2006-05-01
Setting The Operational Framework For Producing Inflation Forecasts written by Eric Parrado and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-01 with categories.
How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management, information gathering, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. It becomes critical how a central bank organizes itself to produce relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor into the process the authorities' policy responses to previous inflation forecasts in order to be consistent with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.
Inflation Targeting And Private Sector Forecasts
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Author : Stephen G. Cecchetti
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010-10
Inflation Targeting And Private Sector Forecasts written by Stephen G. Cecchetti and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? This report studies the degree to which increased info. about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. The authors estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years they find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation.
Expectations Anchoring And Inflation Persistence
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Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-11
Expectations Anchoring And Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Monetary Policy Mistakes And The Evolution Of Inflation Expectations
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Author : Athanasios Orphanides
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010
Monetary Policy Mistakes And The Evolution Of Inflation Expectations written by Athanasios Orphanides and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.