Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-24
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging market and developing economies, like advanced economies, have experienced a remarkable decline in inflation over the past half-century. Yet, research into this development has focused almost exclusively on advanced economies. This book fills that gap, providing the first comprehensive and systematic analysis of inflation in emerging market and developing economies. It examines how inflation has evolved and become synchronized among economies; what drives inflation globally and domestically; where inflation expectations have become better-anchored; and how exchange rate fluctuations can pass through to inflation. To reach its conclusions, the book employs cutting edge empirical approaches. It also offers a rich data set of multiple measures of inflation for a virtually global sample of countries over a half-century to spur further research into this important topic.
Monetary Policy And Food Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-11-23
Monetary Policy And Food Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This book focuses on the impact of monetary policy and food price volatility and inflation in emerging and developing economies. The tendency for food price volatility to blot inflation forecasting accuracy, engender tail dynamics in the overall inflation trajectory and derail economic welfare is well known in the literature. The ability of monetary policy to exact stability in food prices, theoretically, has also been well espoused. The empirical evidence, however, is not only in short supply, but also the studies available have dwelt on approaches that underplay the volatile behaviour of food prices. This book focuses on inflation targeting in emerging economies such as Chile, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, Hungary, Russia, Colombia, South Africa, Indonesia and Ghana, as these are economies with considerable proportion of the consumption basket occupied by food. The book provides the means to understand at first hand the correct way to model food inflation, account for the related policy responses to deviations either in the short or medium to long term, and in market conditions that are subject to excessive variability. Strong evidence is presented that captures deviations of food prices from their trend and the accompanying monetary policy effect in stabilizing such variabilities across distinct frequencies. The novel approach in this book addresses the burgeoning puzzles of asymmetry in monetary policy effect on food prices at high, medium and low episodes of food inflation. In doing so, this book presents a powerful tool for researchers interested in understanding not just the transmission mechanism, but also the magnitudes involved, and to policymakers whose existing tools have failed them. Future studies will do well to deepen the evidence and seek new grounds to which the phenomenon manifests beyond and below emerging markets. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars and policymakers involved in agricultural economics, financial economics, food security and sustainable development.
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective
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Author : Mr.Luis Ignacio Jácome
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-01-01
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective written by Mr.Luis Ignacio Jácome and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of countries covering all regions and a broad range of monetary and exchange rate policy regimes; discusses the underlying causes of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and trade-offs, the uncertainties regarding the nature of the shocks, and the additional challenges brought on by the global financial turmoil; and presents considerations for policy.
Inflation Co Movement In Emerging And Developing Asia The Monsoon Effect
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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-11
Inflation Co Movement In Emerging And Developing Asia The Monsoon Effect written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least.
What Triggers Inflation In Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Ilker Domaç
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2004
What Triggers Inflation In Emerging Market Economies written by Ilker Domaç and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Inflation (Finance) categories.
"Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced a noticeable decline in inflation since the mid-1990s. Whether this stable price environment in EMEs is likely to endure and what kind of policies need to be followed to ensure price stability, however, still continue to be questions of considerable policy relevance. Doma ̇and Ycel investigate the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 EMEs between 1980 and 2001. They use pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. Their empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. Their findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts. This papera product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Regionis part of a larger effort in the region to enhance knowledge on the inflationary process and its policy implications"-- World Bank web site.
Monetary Policy Transmission In Emerging Markets And Developing Economies
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Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-21
Monetary Policy Transmission In Emerging Markets And Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-21 with Business & Economics categories.
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective
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Author : Karl Habermeier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective written by Karl Habermeier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of countries covering all regions and a broad range of monetary and exchange rate policy regimes; discusses the underlying causes of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and trade-offs, the uncertainties regarding the nature of the shocks, and the additional challenges brought on by the global financial turmoil; and presents considerations for policy.
Estimating The Inflation Growth Nexus A Smooth Transition Model
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Author : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-03-01
Estimating The Inflation Growth Nexus A Smooth Transition Model written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.
Inflation Targeting And Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms In Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Ms.Sanchita Mukherjee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-10-01
Inflation Targeting And Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms In Emerging Market Economies written by Ms.Sanchita Mukherjee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper we empirically examine the operation of the traditional Keynesian interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in five potential inflation targeting economies in the MENA region and compare it with fourteen inflation targeting (IT) emerging market economies (EMEs) using panel data analysis. Contrary to some existing studies, our empirical results suggest that private consumption and investment in both groups of countries are sensitive to movements in real interest rates. Moreover, we find that the adoption of IT did not significantly alter the operation of the interest rate channel in IT EMEs. Also, the interest rate elasticities of private consumption and private investment vary with the level of development of the domestic financial market. Finally, capital account liberalization have opposite effects on private consumption and private investment in the two groups of countries.