Info Gap Decision Theory
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Info Gap Decision Theory
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Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2006-10-11
Info Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-10-11 with Computers categories.
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Info Gap Economics
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Author : Y. Ben-Haim
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-04-09
Info Gap Economics written by Y. Ben-Haim and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Robust Optimal Planning And Operation Of Electrical Energy Systems
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Author : Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-02-06
Robust Optimal Planning And Operation Of Electrical Energy Systems written by Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-06 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.
Bridging The Socio Technical Gap In Decision Support Systems
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Author : Ana Respício
language : en
Publisher: IOS Press
Release Date : 2010
Bridging The Socio Technical Gap In Decision Support Systems written by Ana Respício and has been published by IOS Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Computers categories.
Presents the advances in decision support theory and practice with a focus on bridging the socio-technical gap. This book covers a wide range of topics including: Understanding DM, Design of DSS, Web 2.0 Systems in Decision Support, Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing, Applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and more.
Risk Based Energy Management
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Author : Sayyad Nojavan
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2019-07-20
Risk Based Energy Management written by Sayyad Nojavan and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-20 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Risk-Based Energy Management: DC, AC and Hybrid AC-DC Microgrids defines the problems and challenges of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids and considers the right tactics and risk-based scheduling to tackle them. The book looks at the intermittent nature of renewable generation, demand and market price with the risk to DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids, which makes it relevant for anyone in renewable energy demand and supply. As utilization of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewable generations, demand and market price can put the operation of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids at risk, this book presents a timely resource. Discusses both the challenges and solutions surrounding DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids Proposes robust scheduling of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids under uncertain environments Includes modeling upstream grid prices, renewable resources and intermittent load in the decision-making process of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids
The Dilemmas Of Wonderland
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Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2018-08-30
The Dilemmas Of Wonderland written by Yakov Ben-Haim and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-30 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Innovations create both opportunities and dilemmas. They provide new and supposedly better opportunities, but — because of their newness — they are often more uncertain and potentially worse than existing options. Recent inventions and discoveries include new drugs, new energy sources, new foods, new manufacturing technologies, new toys and new pedagogical methods, new weapon systems, new home appliances and many other discoveries and inventions. Is it better to use or not to use a new and promising but unfamiliar and hence uncertain innovation? That dilemma faces just about everybody. The paradigm of the innovation dilemma characterizes many situations, even when a new technology is not actually involved. The dilemma arises from new attitudes, like individual responsibility for the global environment, or new social conceptions, like global allegiance and self-identity transcending nation-states. These dilemmas have far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and society at large as they make decisions in the age of innovation. The uncritical belief in outcome-optimization — "more is better, so most is best" — pervades decision-making in all domains, but is often irresponsible when facing the uncertainties of innovation. There is a great need for practical conceptual tools for understanding and managing the dilemmas of innovation. This book offers a new direction for a wide audience. It discusses examples from many fields, including e-reading, bipolar disorder and pregnancy, disruptive technology in industry, stock markets, agricultural productivity and world hunger, military hardware, military intelligence, biological conservation, on-line learning, and more.
Shadows Of The Mind
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Author : Roger Penrose
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 1994
Shadows Of The Mind written by Roger Penrose and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Computers categories.
Presents the author's thesis that consciousness, in its manifestation in the human quality of understanding, is doing something that mere computation cannot; and attempts to understand how such non-computational action might arise within scientifically comprehensive physical laws.
Intelligent Computing Techniques For Smart Energy Systems
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Author : Akhtar Kalam
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-12-16
Intelligent Computing Techniques For Smart Energy Systems written by Akhtar Kalam and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-16 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The book compiles the research works related to smart solutions concept in context to smart energy systems, maintaining electrical grid discipline and resiliency, computational collective intelligence consisted of interaction between smart devices, smart environments and smart interactions, as well as information technology support for such areas. It includes high-quality papers presented in the International Conference on Intelligent Computing Techniques for Smart Energy Systems organized by Manipal University Jaipur. This book will motivate scholars to work in these areas. The book also prophesies their approach to be used for the business and the humanitarian technology development as research proposal to various government organizations for funding approval.
Moral Uncertainty
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Author : William MacAskill
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2020
Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Business & Economics categories.
About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.