Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic In Industrialized Economies
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Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic In Industrialized Economies
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Author : James Morley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic In Industrialized Economies written by James Morley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ten industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all ten countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.
Business Cycle Asymmetry And The Stock Market
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Author : Paramsothy Silvapulle
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Business Cycle Asymmetry And The Stock Market written by Paramsothy Silvapulle and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business cycles categories.
Business Cycle Fluctuations And Economic Policy
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Author : Khurshid M. Kiani
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Business Cycle Fluctuations And Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Business Cycles
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Author : Victor Zarnowitz
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-11-01
Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-05-18
The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics written by and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-18 with Law categories.
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty
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Author : David E. Rapach
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2008-02-29
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Forecasting Industrial Production Using Models With Business Cycle Asymmetry
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Author : Chan G. Huh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
Forecasting Industrial Production Using Models With Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Chan G. Huh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business cycles categories.
Crises And Cycles In Economic Dictionaries And Encyclopaedias
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Author : Daniele Besomi
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-03-01
Crises And Cycles In Economic Dictionaries And Encyclopaedias written by Daniele Besomi and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This book aims at investigating from the perspective of the major economic dictionaries the notions of economic crisis and cycle. The project consists in giving an extensive summary of a number of significant entries on this subject, with an introductory essay to each entry placing them (and the dictionary to which they belong) in their context, giving some details on the author of the dictionary entry, and assessing the entry’s (and its author’s) contribution. The broad picture (including the history of these encyclopedic tools) will be examined in the introductory essays.
Complex Economic Dynamics An Introduction To Macroeconomic Dynamics
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Author : Richard Hollis Day
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1994
Complex Economic Dynamics An Introduction To Macroeconomic Dynamics written by Richard Hollis Day and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.
"The two volumes of Complex Economic Dynamics show that, far from being a passing trend in economic research, complex dynamics belongs at the heart of the subject. Although they can be read independently, the volumes follow a logical sequence. Volume 1 contained nontechnical introductions to the basics of economic change and to the mathematical and theoretical tools used to describe them. Volume 2, which is concerned with macroeconomic dynamics, looks at the economy as a whole. Topics include business cycles, economic growth, economic development, and dynamical economic science and policy. The book concludes with the author's reflections on the implications of complex dynamics for economic theory, quantitative research, and government policy."--Pub. desc.
The American Business Cycle
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Author : Robert J. Gordon
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-11-01
The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.