Labor And Product Market Reforms And External Imbalances Evidence From Advanced Economies
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Labor And Product Market Reforms And External Imbalances Evidence From Advanced Economies
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-02-26
Labor And Product Market Reforms And External Imbalances Evidence From Advanced Economies written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-26 with Business & Economics categories.
We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroeconomic conditions. Our results are broadly consistent with predictions from recent DSGE models with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions.
Structural Reforms To Accelerate Growth Ease Policy Trade Offs And Support The Green Transition In Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Author : Mrs. Nina Budina
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09-22
Structural Reforms To Accelerate Growth Ease Policy Trade Offs And Support The Green Transition In Emerging Market And Developing Economies written by Mrs. Nina Budina and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-22 with Business & Economics categories.
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Reforms And External Imbalances
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Author : Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-03-28
Reforms And External Imbalances written by Rabah Arezki and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.
World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.
2022 Update Of The External Balance Assessment Methodology
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Author : Mr. Cian Allen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-03
2022 Update Of The External Balance Assessment Methodology written by Mr. Cian Allen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.
2017 External Sector Report
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-28
2017 External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016, with minor shifts adding to the reconfiguration under way since 2013. The fall in commodity prices, uneven cyclical recoveries in systemic economies, and differences in policy responses contributed to the rotation of imbalances. Current account surpluses of oil-exporting economies, as a group, shifted from large surpluses to small deficits, while deficits in emerging and developing economies narrowed markedly. At the same time, surpluses and deficits in key advanced economies widened. These trends were generally supported by real exchange rate movements. Overall excess current account imbalances (i.e., deficits or surpluses that deviate from desirable levels) represented about one-third of total global imbalances in 2016, remaining broadly unchanged since 2013, although increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. In particular, excess imbalances narrowed in emerging and developing economies, led by a smaller excess surplus in China and smaller excess deficits in others (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey). This narrowing, however, was accompanied by a widening of excess imbalances in some advanced economies. The persistence of large excess surpluses in several advanced economies (e.g. Germany, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, Sweden) remains a distinguishing feature of the constellation of imbalances, an issue that is explored in greater detail in this year’s report. Persistent global excess imbalances suggest that automatic adjustment mechanisms are weak. While the rotation of excess imbalances toward advanced economies—with deficits increasingly concentrated in the United States and United Kingdom—likely entails lower deficit-financing risks in the near term, the increased concentration of deficits in a few economies carries greater risks of disruptive trade policy actions. Diverging stock positions coupled with continued overreliance on demand from debtor countries could also pose risks to global growth and raise the likelihood of disruptive adjustments down the road. With nearly-closed output gaps in most systemic economies, addressing external imbalances in a growth-friendly fashion requires a recalibration of the policy mix in deficit and surplus economies alike. Excess deficit countries should move forward with fiscal consolidation, while gradually normalizing monetary policy in tandem with inflation developments. Excess surplus economies with fiscal space should reduce their reliance on easy monetary policy and allow for greater fiscal stimulus. Where monetary policy is constrained from playing a role, as in individual euro area members, fiscal and structural policies to facilitate relative price adjustments should take priority. Meanwhile, structural policies in excess surplus countries should focus on lifting distortions that constrain domestic demand or limit trade competition; while in excess deficit economies, policies should be directed to improving external competitiveness and overall saving. Protectionist and mercantilist policies should be avoided as they are detrimental to global growth.
The Needle In The Haystack What Drives Labor And Product Market Reforms In Advanced Countries
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-09
The Needle In The Haystack What Drives Labor And Product Market Reforms In Advanced Countries written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis-induces-reform hypothesis. Outside pressure increases the likelihood of reform in certain areas: reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.
World Economic Outlook April 2011
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-11
World Economic Outlook April 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-11 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.
World Economic Outlook April 2017
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-04-18
World Economic Outlook April 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.
Globalization And Informal Jobs In Developing Countries
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Author : Marc Bacchetta
language : en
Publisher: World Trade Organization
Release Date : 2009
Globalization And Informal Jobs In Developing Countries written by Marc Bacchetta and has been published by World Trade Organization this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
World trade has expanded significantly in recent years, making a major contribution to global growth. Economic growth has not led to a corresponding improvement in working conditions and living standards for many workers. In developing countries, job creation has largely taken place in the informal economy, where around 60 per cent of workers are employed. Most of the workers in the informal economy have almost no job security, low incomes and no social protection, with limited opportunities to benefit from globalization. This study focuses on the relationship between trade And The growth of the informal economy in developing countries. Based on existing academic literature, complemented with new empirical research by the ILO And The WTO, The study discusses how trade reform affects different aspects of the informal economy. it also examines how high rates of informal employment diminish the scope for developing countries to translate trade openness into sustainable long-term growth. The report analyses how well-designed trade and decent-work friendly policies can complement each other so as to promote sustainable development and growing prosperity in developing countries.
Republic Of Poland
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-04-18
Republic Of Poland written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-18 with Business & Economics categories.
The external sector has an increasing drag on the economy. The current account deficit remains fully financed by FDI, and the underlying balance is consistent with external-debt stabilizing levels. The stock market retrenchment has been severe, but it followed substantial gains since 2006. Stress tests show that resilience of the banking system is well capitalized and highly profitable. Executive Directors stressed that the key to boosting long-term growth will be to increase low labor market participation. The financial supervision authority should give priority to formalizing understandings.