Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity
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Leading Economic Indicators
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Author : Kajal Lahiri
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1991
Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Business & Economics categories.
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity
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Author : Christopher Green
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity written by Christopher Green and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Economic forecasting categories.
The Leading Indicators
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Author : Zachary Karabell
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2014-02-11
The Leading Indicators written by Zachary Karabell and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-11 with Business & Economics categories.
How did we come by the “leading indicators” we place such stock in? We allocate trillions of dollars and make public policy and personal decisions based upon them, but what do they really tell us? “The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.
Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators
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Author : Tahsin Saadi-Sedik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-08-01
Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators written by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
In Search Of Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Germany
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
In Search Of Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Germany written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.
In Search Of Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Germany
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Author : Harm Bandholz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
In Search Of Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Germany written by Harm Bandholz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtainted optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state rgime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.
In Search Of Coincident And Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Argentina
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Author : Mr.Alejandro Simone
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2001-03-01
In Search Of Coincident And Leading Indicators Of Economic Activity In Argentina written by Mr.Alejandro Simone and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.
Yield Spread As A Leading Indicator Of Real Economic Activity
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Author : K. Kanagasabapathy
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2002-05
Yield Spread As A Leading Indicator Of Real Economic Activity written by K. Kanagasabapathy and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-05 with Business & Economics categories.
There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yield spread in the government securities market to movements in the index of industrial production. The results show that yield spread could, inter alia, be considered as a leading indicator of industrial activity in India.
A Policymaker S Guide To Indicators Of Economic Activity
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Author : Charles L. Evans
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
A Policymaker S Guide To Indicators Of Economic Activity written by Charles L. Evans and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Economic forecasting categories.
The Leading Indicator Approach To Economic Forecasting
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Author : Philip A. Klein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
The Leading Indicator Approach To Economic Forecasting written by Philip A. Klein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Business cycles categories.
For many years a system of leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators, first developed in the 1930s by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has been widely used in the United States to appraise the state of the business cycle. Since 1961 the current monthly figures for these indicators have been published by the U.S. Department of Commerce in Business Conditions Digest. Similar systems have been developed by government or private agencies in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and more recently in many other countries. A few years ago the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) set up a working party to develop this type of analysis and most of the member countries participated. The Center for International Business Cycle Research at Rutgers University has given guidance in this field to some fifteen countries during the past three years, in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America. Our purpose in this paper is to explain briefly the theory and rationale underlying this approach to economic forecasting, describe the more important statistical procedures used, and review the evidence on how the indicators have performed in practice. The tests of performance concentrate on data not used in the selection of the indicators, in the United States and nine other countries. We conclude with some suggestions for future research and development, including the application of the approach to the analysis of inflation. [Resumen de autor]