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Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics

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Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics

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Author : George W. Evans
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-01-06

Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-06 with Business & Economics categories.

A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Rethinking Expectations

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Author : Roman Frydman
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013

Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.

This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Expectations Learning And Monetary Policy

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Author : George W. Evans
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

Expectations Learning And Monetary Policy written by George W. Evans and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Interest rates categories.

Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback

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Author : Jan Wenzelburger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-09-22

Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback written by Jan Wenzelburger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-09-22 with Business & Economics categories.

Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.

Rational Expectations And The New Macroeconomics

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Author : Patrick Minford
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1986

Rational Expectations And The New Macroeconomics written by Patrick Minford and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986 with categories.

Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics

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Author : Clifford L. F. Attfield
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985

Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics written by Clifford L. F. Attfield and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Macroeconomics categories.

Individual Forecasting And Aggregate Outcomes

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Author : Roman Frydman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1986-10-02

Individual Forecasting And Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.

The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.

Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics

Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics

Rethinking Expectations

Expectations Learning And Monetary Policy

Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback

Rational Expectations And The New Macroeconomics

Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics

Individual Forecasting And Aggregate Outcomes

The Rational Expectations Revolution In Macroeconomics

Rational Expectations Macroeconomics

Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics

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