Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback
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Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback
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Author : Jan Wenzelburger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-09-22
Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback written by Jan Wenzelburger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-09-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Behavioral Rationality And Heterogeneous Expectations In Complex Economic Systems
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Author : Cars Hommes
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-24
Behavioral Rationality And Heterogeneous Expectations In Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Complex Systems Approach To Economic Dynamics
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Author : Abraham C.-L. Chian
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-07-13
Complex Systems Approach To Economic Dynamics written by Abraham C.-L. Chian and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Systems exhibit complex dynamics evidenced by large-amplitude and aperiodic fluctuations in economic variables, such as foreign exchange rates and stock market prices, indicating that these systems are driven far from the equilibrium. Characterization of the complex behavior of economic cycles, by identifying regular and irregular patterns and regime switching in economic time series, is the key for pattern recognition and forecasting of economic cycles. Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor, responsible for economic intermittency.
Pension Systems Demographic Change And The Stock Market
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Author : Marten Hillebrand
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-10-16
Pension Systems Demographic Change And The Stock Market written by Marten Hillebrand and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-16 with Political Science categories.
Due to the accelerating demographic change of the population the reform of the existing pension systems constitutes one of the greatest political challenges in most European countries. A theoretical discussion of different pension reforms must incorporate not only the demographic aspect but also the role of financial market risk and the impact on production and employment. These notes develop a dynamic macroeconomic model which incorporates these aspects within a flexible theoretical framework. The proposed approach provides a large scale population model and features a sound description of the production side as well as of the financial side of the economy and their interactions with the pension system. Within this framework various adjustment policies of the pension system are studied under different population scenarios. The consequences for the economy and the welfare of consumers are analyzed and compared.
Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics
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Author : George W. Evans
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-01-06
Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Economic Evolution And Equilibrium
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Author : Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-06-10
Economic Evolution And Equilibrium written by Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-06-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This work uses various model frameworks to study the evolution of equilibria in an open loop evolving economy in which the model characteristics evolve without any directional restrictions except for continuity. Applying mathematical methods, it is shown that equilibria can always be adapted in a piecewise gradual, non bang-bang way.
Cooperative Systems
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Author : Don Grundel
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-03-21
Cooperative Systems written by Don Grundel and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-03-21 with Business & Economics categories.
Because of the clearly important role cooperative systems play in areas such as military sciences, biology, communications, robotics, and economics, just to name a few, the study of cooperative systems has intensified. This book provides an insight in the basic understanding of cooperative systems as well as in theory, modeling, and applications of cooperative control, optimization and related problems.
Economic Dynamics And Information
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Author : Jaroslav Zajac
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-01
Economic Dynamics And Information written by Jaroslav Zajac and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This book analyzes the existence of equilibria in economies having a measured space of agents and a continuum of agents and commodities. Excessive homogeneity with respect to agent productivity leads to instability and non-uniqueness of a given stationary state and the indeterminacy of the corresponding stationary state equilibrium. Sufficient heterogeneity leads to global saddle-path stability, uniqueness of a given stationary state and the global uniqueness of the corresponding equilibrium.
Risk Averse Capacity Control In Revenue Management
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Author : Christiane Barz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-02
Risk Averse Capacity Control In Revenue Management written by Christiane Barz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book revises the well-known capacity control problem in revenue management from the perspective of a risk-averse decision-maker. Modelling an expected utility maximizing decision maker, the problem is formulated as a risk-sensitive Markov decision process. Special emphasis is put on the existence of structured optimal policies. Numerical examples illustrate the results.
Partner Choice And Cooperation In Networks
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Author : Aljaž Ule
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-01-10
Partner Choice And Cooperation In Networks written by Aljaž Ule and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-01-10 with Psychology categories.
In this book, a social dilemma with partner selection is introduced and studied with the methods of formal game theory, experimental economics and computer simulations. It allows exploration of simultaneous dynamics of the network structure and cooperative behavior on this structure. The results of this study show that partner choice strongly facilitates cooperation and leads to networks where free-riders are likely to be excluded.