Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty
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Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher: FonCSI
Release Date : 2013-03-01
Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and has been published by FonCSI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Risk Analysis
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Risk Analysis written by Enrico Zio and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Uncertainty
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Author : Millett Granger Morgan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990
Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.
Uncertainty Characterization In Risk Analysis For Decision Making Practice
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher: FonCSI
Release Date : 2012-05-01
Uncertainty Characterization In Risk Analysis For Decision Making Practice written by Enrico Zio and has been published by FonCSI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis Volume 1
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Author : Dan G. Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2003-05-28
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis Volume 1 written by Dan G. Cacuci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-28 with Mathematics categories.
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based
Uncertainty Modelling And Analysis
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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier Publishing Company
Release Date : 1994
Uncertainty Modelling And Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and has been published by Elsevier Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Computers categories.
Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.
Uncertainty Quantification
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Author : Ralph C. Smith
language : en
Publisher: SIAM
Release Date : 2013-12-02
Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and has been published by SIAM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-02 with Computers categories.
The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Applied Research In Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis
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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-12-29
Applied Research In Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-12-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The application areas of uncertainty are numerous and diverse, including all fields of engineering, computer science, systems control and finance. Determining appropriate ways and methods of dealing with uncertainty has been a constant challenge. The theme for this book is better understanding and the application of uncertainty theories. This book, with invited chapters, deals with the uncertainty phenomena in diverse fields. The book is an outgrowth of the Fourth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), which was held at the center of Adult Education, College Park, Maryland, in September 2003. All of the chapters have been carefully edited, following a review process in which the editorial committee scrutinized each chapter. The contents of the book are reported in twenty-three chapters, covering more than . . ... pages. This book is divided into six main sections. Part I (Chapters 1-4) presents the philosophical and theoretical foundation of uncertainty, new computational directions in neural networks, and some theoretical foundation of fuzzy systems. Part I1 (Chapters 5-8) reports on biomedical and chemical engineering applications. The sections looks at noise reduction techniques using hidden Markov models, evaluation of biomedical signals using neural networks, and changes in medical image detection using Markov Random Field and Mean Field theory. One of the chapters reports on optimization in chemical engineering processes.
Uncertainty Reasoning And Representation A Comparison Of Several Alternative Approaches
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Author : Barbara S. Smith
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Uncertainty Reasoning And Representation A Comparison Of Several Alternative Approaches written by Barbara S. Smith and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Expert systems (Computer science) categories.
"Much of the research done in Artificial Intelligence involves investigating and developing methods of incorporating uncertainty reasoning and representation into expert systems. Several methods have been proposed and attempted for handling uncertainty in problem solving situations. The theories range from numerical approaches based on strict probabilistic reasoning to non-numeric approaches based on logical reasoning. This study investigates a number of these approaches including Bayesian Probability, Mycin Certainty Factors, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, Fuzzy Set Theory, Possibility Theory and non monotonic logic. Each of these theories and their underlying formalisms are explored by means of examples. The discussion concentrates on a comparison of the different approaches, noting the type of uncertainty that they best represent."--Abstract.
Science And Judgment In Risk Assessment
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1994-01-01
Science And Judgment In Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-01-01 with Science categories.
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.