Long Run Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Long Run Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Mr.Karl Friedrich Habermeier
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-04-01
Long Run Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Mr.Karl Friedrich Habermeier and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Long-run movements of real exchange rates are studied using a panel data set comprising 51 economies. The purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP) is examined first using unit root tests. It is found that PPP does not hold for the full sample of countries, but it may hold for the advanced economies, as well as open and high-inflation economies. Using the recently developed mean group and pooled mean group estimators, the paper finds support for the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in both advanced and developing economies; and for the influence of shifts in the terms of trade.
Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle
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Author : Falkmar Butgereit
language : en
Publisher: Diplomica Verlag
Release Date : 2010
Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle written by Falkmar Butgereit and has been published by Diplomica Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Eric J. Pentecost
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 1993
Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Eric J. Pentecost and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This work examines the development of the determinants of the exchange rate system since the mid-1970s. It scrutinises the main theoretical models of exchange rate determination and assesses their empirical validity drawn from recent econometric results (based on cointegration methodology).
Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Jean-OIiver Hairault
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2003-12-12
Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Jean-OIiver Hairault and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This book builds upon the seminal work by Obsfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics and provides a coherent and modern framework for thinking about exchange rate dynamics.
Exchange Rates Dynamics With Long Run Risk And Recursive Preferences
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Author : Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Exchange Rates Dynamics With Long Run Risk And Recursive Preferences written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Foreign exchange categories.
Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond can be traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A long-run risk model with recursive-preferences in which all agents trade in complete global financial markets can generate realistic exchange rate volatility; however, I show that this entails huge international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferences model in which only a small fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, generates realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility.
Real And Nominal Exchange Rates In The Long Run
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Author : Mr.Bankim Chadha
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1991-06-01
Real And Nominal Exchange Rates In The Long Run written by Mr.Bankim Chadha and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper decomposes longer-run movements in (major) dollar real exchange rates into components associated with changes in nominal exchange rates and price levels, and their comovements. Though the decompositions suggest some permanent movements, they imply that there are large transitory components in real exchange rates. These transitory components in real exchange rates are found to be closely associated with those in nominal exchange rates. A stochastic version of Dornbusch’s overshooting model—configured with representative parameter values for the United States and subjected to permanent nominal shocks—can rationalize these transitory comovements of nominal and real exchange rates as well as several other features of the decompositions.
Exchange Rates
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Author : Megan J. Tauline
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Exchange Rates written by Megan J. Tauline and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
An exchange rate is the current market price for which one currency can be exchanged for another. The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate whereas the forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. Exchange rates vary because of changes in the relative demand for different countries' goods and services and because national monetary and fiscal policies are inconsistent with each other. Differences in tax rates and in interest rates cause capital flows which affect a country's balance of payments and, consequently, its exchange rate. An overvalued exchange rate leads to a current account balance of payments deficit and bearish speculative capital movements; an undervalued exchange rate creates a current account surplus and an influx of capital. Volatile exchange rates and volatile interest rates coincide. This book examines important issues in the field.
Exchange Rates And Macroeconomic Dynamics
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Author : P. Karadeloglou
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-02-13
Exchange Rates And Macroeconomic Dynamics written by P. Karadeloglou and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book looks at the PPP persistence puzzle, and econometric aspects of exchange rate dynamics and their implications. It also explores the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the pass-through effects (PTE) and the econometric aspects of the exchange rates dynamics linked to structural shocks on different economies.
Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Jean-OIiver Hairault
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2003-12-18
Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Jean-OIiver Hairault and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-12-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This important new book builds upon the seminal work by Obsfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics and aims at providing a coherent and modern framework for thinking about exchange rate dynamics. With a wide range of contributions, this book is likely to be welcomed by the macroeconomics and financial community.
Asset Market And Balance Of Payments Characteristics
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Author : Mr.Ronald MacDonald
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1995-06-01
Asset Market And Balance Of Payments Characteristics written by Mr.Ronald MacDonald and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper we use an exchange rate model that combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. In contrast to much other empirical exchange rate modeling, our approach explicitly involves the use of a current account sustainability term. Amongst the findings reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for all of the currencies studied; appealing short-run dynamics for two of the currencies; and a finding that the Japanese effective exchange rate closely tracks the long-run exchange rate defined in this paper.