Long Run Growth Forecasting
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Long Run Growth Forecasting
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Author : Stefan Bergheim
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-03-29
Long Run Growth Forecasting written by Stefan Bergheim and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-03-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.
Methods Of Long Term Planning And Forecasting
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Author : T S Khachaturov
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-12-30
Methods Of Long Term Planning And Forecasting written by T S Khachaturov and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Overfitting In Judgment Based Economic Forecasts The Case Of Imf Growth Projections
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Author : Klaus-Peter Hellwig
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07
Overfitting In Judgment Based Economic Forecasts The Case Of Imf Growth Projections written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting.
Forecasting U S Investment
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Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-11-01
Forecasting U S Investment written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a crucial issue for the U.S. and global recovery. On the basis of several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period. The contribution of investment to real GDP growth will be 0.8 percentage points on average over the same period.
Growth
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Author : Giang Ho
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-07-02
Growth written by Giang Ho and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
Measuring Economic Slack
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Author : James Morley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Measuring Economic Slack written by James Morley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Economic Forecasting For Management
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Author : Hans G. Graf
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Release Date : 2002-08-30
Economic Forecasting For Management written by Hans G. Graf and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-08-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Economic And Business Forecasting
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Author : John E. Silvia
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2014-03-10
Economic And Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
How Do National Policies Affect Long Run Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1992
How Do National Policies Affect Long Run Growth written by and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Business & Economics categories.
Long Term Projections Of Power Political Economic And Military Forecasting
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Author : Oskar Morgenstern
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass : Ballinger Publishing Company
Release Date : 1973
Long Term Projections Of Power Political Economic And Military Forecasting written by Oskar Morgenstern and has been published by Cambridge, Mass : Ballinger Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with Political Science categories.
Monograph presenting a critique of long term forecasting techniques operationally useful for predicting the shape of political power and technological capacity in the future - comprises a literature survey of major projections to the year 2000, and examines their relevance to armed forces power, economic systems, environmental problems, research and development efforts, etc. Bibliography pp. 217 to 224, references and statistical tables.