Macro Factors And The Brazilian Yield Curve With No Arbitrage Models
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Macro Factors And The Brazilian Yield Curve With No Arbitrage Models
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Author : Marco S. Matsumura
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Macro Factors And The Brazilian Yield Curve With No Arbitrage Models written by Marco S. Matsumura and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Interest rates categories.
Utiliza um modelo de não arbitragem para estudar a interação entre variáveis macro e a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros (ETTJ), interação que é um elemento crítico para política monetária e para previsão.
Macro Factors And The Brazilian Yield Curve With No Arbitrage Models
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Author : Marcos S. Matsumura
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Macro Factors And The Brazilian Yield Curve With No Arbitrage Models written by Marcos S. Matsumura and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
We use no arbitrage models with macro variables to study the interaction between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. This interaction is a key element for monetary policy and for forecasting. The model was used to analyze the Brazilian domestic financial market using a daily dataset and two versions of the model, one in continuous-time and estimated by maximum likelihood, and the other in discretetime and estimated by Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC). Our objective is threefold: 1) To analyze the determinants of the Brazilian domestic term structure considering nominal shocks; 2) To compare the results of the discrete and the continuous time versions considering adherence, forecasting performance and monetary policy analysis; and 3) To evaluate the effect of restrictions on the transition and pricing equations over the model properties. Our main results are: 1) results from continuous and discrete versions are qualitatively and in most cases quantitatively equivalent; 2) Monetary Authorities are conservative in Brazil, smoothing short rate fluctuations; 3) inflation shock, or slope shock, depending on the model selected, are the main sources of long run fluctuations of nominal variables; and finally, 4) no arbitrage models showed lower forecasting performance than an unrestricted factor model.
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling
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Author : Riccardo Rebonato
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-06-07
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Rebonato provides an authoritative, clear, and up-to-date explanation of the cutting-edge innovations in affine modeling for government bonds, and provides readers with the precise tools to develop their own models. This book combines precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-15
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Exploration Of The Brazilian Term Structure In A Hidden Markov Framework
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Author : Mr.Richard Munclinger
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-01-01
Exploration Of The Brazilian Term Structure In A Hidden Markov Framework written by Mr.Richard Munclinger and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high volatility regime and a low level and low volatility regime. Both regimes are persistent and are explained by the level and the slope of the term structure. The model is estimated using a Bayesian MCM algorithm that produces consistent standard errors and a reliable method for testing the differences between the model parameters.
Riding The Yield Curve Risk Taking Behavior In A Low Interest Rate Environment
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Author : Mr.Ralph Chami
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-03-13
Riding The Yield Curve Risk Taking Behavior In A Low Interest Rate Environment written by Mr.Ralph Chami and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium
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Author : Emanuel Kopp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-15
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities
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Author : Marco S. Matsumura
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities written by Marco S. Matsumura and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Debts, Public categories.
Estimating And Interpreting Forward Interest Rates
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Author : Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1994-09-01
Estimating And Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.
Understanding Global Liquidity
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Author : Sandra Eickmeier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Understanding Global Liquidity written by Sandra Eickmeier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with International finance categories.
