A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium
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A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium
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Author : Emanuel Kopp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-15
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium
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Author : Emanuel Kopp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-15
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
United States
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-03
United States written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Unemployment is low, inflation is well contained, and growth is set to accelerate. During the course of this administration, the economy is expected to enter the longest expansion in recorded U.S. history.
Random Walks In Fixed Income And Foreign Exchange
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Author : Jessica James
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2021-06-08
Random Walks In Fixed Income And Foreign Exchange written by Jessica James and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-08 with Business & Economics categories.
The fixed income and foreign exchange (FX) markets have never been as challenging to operate in as they are today. The post-crash combination of reduced liquidity, higher operating costs, low interest rates, flat yield curves and increased regulation means that market makers and investors alike need to work harder to generate value and remain in full understanding of the markets. Random Walks in Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange brings together the best of detailed and original practitioner-orientated market research on many specialist areas of the bond and FX markets. Written by the highly regarded FX and bonds research desk at Commerzbank, the book offers varied and in-depth insight into specific topics of vital important to dealers and investors, including the cross-currency basis and hedging, the yield curve, and overseas issuance conversion factors which will give investors a genuine edge in generating value. Written in accessible text, it is a must-read for all those interested in bonds and FX.
Financial Markets And The Real Economy
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Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2005
Financial Markets And The Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2016
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Author : Martin Eichenbaum
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2017-05-22
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2016 written by Martin Eichenbaum and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior. The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
The Long Good Buy
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Author : Peter C. Oppenheimer
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2020-04-09
The Long Good Buy written by Peter C. Oppenheimer and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-09 with Business & Economics categories.
PRAISE FOR THE LONG GOOD BUY: "Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now." Stephen D. King, economist and author of Grave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History "Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities." Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair, Chatham House "A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns." Keith Skeoch, CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen "This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance." Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics, London Business School "This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed." Huw Pill, Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School "The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists." Lord Brian Griffiths, Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-15
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
A Decade After The Global Recession
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-19
A Decade After The Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space.This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Monetary Policy Alternatives At The Zero Bound
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Author : Ben S. Bernanke
language : en
Publisher: www.bnpublishing.com
Release Date : 2009-03
Monetary Policy Alternatives At The Zero Bound written by Ben S. Bernanke and has been published by www.bnpublishing.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03 with categories.
The success over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently, the average level of nominal interest rates has increased the likelihood that the nominal policy interest rate may become constrained by the zero lower bound. When that happens, a central bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further interest-rate reductions and must rely on "non-standard" policy alternatives. To assess the potential effectiveness of such policies, we analyze the behavior of selected asset prices over short periods surrounding central bank statements or other types of financial or economic news and estimate "noarbitrage" models of the term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some evidence that central bank communications can help to shape public expectations of future policy actions and that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset.