Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Prices
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The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices Conventional Versus News Models
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Author : John Vaz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices Conventional Versus News Models written by John Vaz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Stock prices are usually analysed and explained in terms of underlying financial indicators, such as earnings per share or dividend payout ratios. Nevertheless, fluctuations in the conditions of the economy can result in changes in demand, which can impact on profits and dividends. Since macroeconomic variables affect financial indicators it follows that macroeconomic variables affect stock prices. If markets are rational and efficient, then stock prices will reflect all known information regarding macroeconomic factors that are perceived to affect stock prices. It follows that stock prices should not change significantly unless there is a surprise or news about the state of the economy (as reflected in unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables). Intuitively, this implies that models of stock price determination based on news ought to be superior to conventional models that use the levels or changes in variables. The utilisation of news in research on stock prices is very limited. Two approaches have been traditionally used to represent the news in the absence of surveys of expectations: either by assuming announcements are news such as those in event studies or by using an econometric time series approach to extract the news components from total changes in the variables, as is the case with the news model. The majority of studies involving news models have been in the foreign exchange market using news estimated econometrically-very little has been done in estimating and testing a macro news model of stock prices and certainly nothing has been done on stock prices in developed economies such as Australia. Thus this research is motivated by the significant gaps in the literature with respect to the development, estimation and testing of a news model of stock prices. Most of the studies that investigate the relations between macro variables and stock prices have been carried out using conventional approaches by estimating models that use the variables in their levels. Some of the multivariable models of stock prices arise as a result of anomalies found in implementing the capital asset pricing model. Other multivariable approaches such as the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), due to Ross (1976), suggest that macro variables are useful, but APT is silent on the appropriate macroeconomic explanatory variables. Furthermore, there have been limited attempts to examine macroeconomic variables collectively, but not with the aim of developing a macro model of stock prices. This thesis presents the results of research that uses comprehensive econometric procedures to investigate which macroeconomic variables have significant effects on Australian stock prices and whether news about such variables can enhance the performance of conventional stock price determination models. Seven macroeconomic variables are examined: interest rates, inflation, the money supply, economic activity, commodity prices, exchange rates and a foreign stock market index to account for spill-over effects. This provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of the individual effects of macroeconomic variables on stock prices and adds to the limited literature regarding the usefulness of news in models of stock price determination. The results from this research demonstrate that although news is a theoretically sound and intuitively plausible basis for improving macro models of stock prices, in practice there is no ex-ante exploitation possible by estimating news utilising econometric methods. Simply put, news cannot be predicted-this is established by using three comprehensive methods of estimating news, which is the residual of a model fitted to the time series data of a particular variable.
Changes In Macroeconomic Variables And Their Impact On Stock Price Indices A Case Study Of The Financial Times Stock Exchange Ftse And Johannesburg Stock Exchange Jse Indices
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Author : Kudzanai Chakona
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2022-11-07
Changes In Macroeconomic Variables And Their Impact On Stock Price Indices A Case Study Of The Financial Times Stock Exchange Ftse And Johannesburg Stock Exchange Jse Indices written by Kudzanai Chakona and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, Birmingham City University, course: MSc Accountancy and Finance (ACCA), language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes in macroeconomic variables and evaluate the impact on a company’s stock prices, by examining the impact of changes macroeconomic variables, determining which macro-economic variables that have the least and most impact on stock prices and also suggest ways in which the impact on the macroeconomic variables on stock prices can be hedged against using agricultural futures, metal futures or a risk-free asset. The study will use five econometric models to test this impact, these include the Granger Causality test, Johansen Co-Integration test, Vector Error Model, Walt Test statistic, Multiple Regression Model. A review of a number of academic literature by notable analysis for both developed and developing markets will be provided. The FTSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developed markets and the JSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developing markets.
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market
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Author : Dennis Sauert
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2010-10
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
The Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices
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Author : Shivangi Singh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
The Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices written by Shivangi Singh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
The relationship between fundamental macroeconomic variables of the economy and stock markets is an essential one. It affects the perspective of monetary and fiscal policy decisions, portfolio management and economic development. It has been studied that macroeconomic variables can influence investors' investment decisions. Over the world, many researchers have investigated the relationships between stock market prices and various macroeconomic variables. The focus of the current paper is to investigate whether the share price index can be considered as a reflection of economic activities in India. This study investigates the impact of five selected macroeconomic variables on Stock Market Liquidity of S&P CNX Nifty. As a result of this analysis, a simple model of the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals on the stock market index has been suggested. For better stock market performance, policy makers should put in place measures that will ensure a stable macroeconomic environment.
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market
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Author : Dennis Sauert
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2010-10-12
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Prices
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Author : Elangkumaran Periyathampy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Prices written by Elangkumaran Periyathampy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
One of the most enduring debates in economics is whether financial development causes economic growth or whether it is a consequence of increased economic activity. Financial markets play an important role in the process of economic growth and development by facilitating savings and channelizing funds from surplus unit to deficit unit. Stock market plays a significant role in the economic development of a country. A number of studies have been investigated on the causal relationship between economic indicators and stock exchange prices. Many studies have been made from time to time; however, after post-war to find out the causal relationship between the economic variables and stock prices is vital to the policy makers. There are many factors which influence the stock market and ASPI. This study is focused on that how macro economic variables influence the stock prices of CSE in Sri Lanka. For the reason, four macro independent variables i.e. Interest Rate (IR), Exchange Rate (ER), Balance of Payment(BOP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) were taken under consideration to measure influences of these factor on the dependent variable of All Share Price Index (ASPI). For analysis, secondary data was taken for 20 years from 1993 up to 2012. Yearly data was used considering all of the variables. Excel sheet was used to arrange the Data and SPSS was used to analyse the data. The findings revealed that GDP is significantly strong positive correlation with ASPI. Further, there is a significant positive correlation between ER and ASPI whenever negatively correlated with IR. Finally, multi-regression analysis indicates that macroeconomic variables significantly impact on stock prices.
Business Economics Financial Sciences And Management
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Author : Min Zhu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-02-11
Business Economics Financial Sciences And Management written by Min Zhu and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A series of papers on business, economics, and financial sciences, management selected from International Conference on Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management are included in this volume. Management in all business and organizational activities is the act of getting people together to accomplish desired goals and objectives using available resources efficiently and effectively. Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal. Resourcing encompasses the deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources. The proceedings of BEFM2011 focuses on the various aspects of advances in Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management and provides a chance for academic and industry professionals to discuss recent progress in the area of Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management. It is hoped that the present book will be useful to experts and professors, both specialists and graduate students in the related fields.
Macroeconomic Variables Stock Price In Singapore
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Author : MOUAZ ASSAD (TP036174)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Macroeconomic Variables Stock Price In Singapore written by MOUAZ ASSAD (TP036174) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Macroeconomic categories.
Macro Economic Variables And Stock Prices In India
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Author : Mubasher Hassan
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2014-10-31
Macro Economic Variables And Stock Prices In India written by Mubasher Hassan and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-31 with categories.
The government's conduct of macroeconomic policy plays a unique and pivotal role in managing economic stability at the national level.As macroeconomic policies that are properly crafted and implemented help overcome many constraints like information asymmetry and coordination failures amongst regulatory institutions and markets, besides; a stable macroeconomic environment enables financial intermediaries to employ savings in productive activities thereby offering handsome returns to investors. Owing to the growth and development of financial markets across emerging economies, particularly India with its domestic saving on the rise, the policy makers, financial markets professionals, research scholars and academia are faced with unprecedented challenges when it comes to understanding volatility in stock market returns, in this direction this book focuses on the influence of select macroeconomic variables on stock market returns in India and will be helpful for business and economics graduates in understanding interaction between various macroeconomic fundamentals and can also serve as first step for research scholars in the field of financial economics.
Impact Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market In India
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Author : Sanjay Kumar Das
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2021-01-25
Impact Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market In India written by Sanjay Kumar Das and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-25 with categories.
Stock market returns depend on the changes in the stock market index. In India, S&P BSE Sensex is considered as the pulse of the stock market. S&P BSE Sensex is the sensitive index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which is a value- weighted index, composed of 30 largest and most actively traded stocks. There have been limited studies on the linkage between the macro economy and stock prices in India. The purpose of this study is to investigate this linkage between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns with reference to S&P BSE Sensex as well as the linkage between macroeconomic variables and S&P BSE sectoral indices. The study also investigates the linkage between exchange rate and volatility of S&P BSE Sensex Returns.
