Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses
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Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses
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Author : Zineddine Alla
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-09
Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses written by Zineddine Alla and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the distress of other entities in the system. This valuation is made possible by a multivariate density which characterizes the asset values of the financial entities making up the system. In this paper this density is estimated using CIMDO, a statistical approach, which infers densities that are consistent with entities’ probabilities of default, which in this case are estimated using market-based data. Hence, SE losses capture the effects of interconnectedness structures that are consistent with markets’ perceptions of risk. We then show how SE losses can be decomposed into the likelihood of distress and the magnitude of losses, thereby quantifying the contribution of specific entities to systemic contagion. To illustrate the approach, we quantify SE losses due to Lehman Brothers’ default.
Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses
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Author : Zineddine Alla
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-09
Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses written by Zineddine Alla and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the distress of other entities in the system. This valuation is made possible by a multivariate density which characterizes the asset values of the financial entities making up the system. In this paper this density is estimated using CIMDO, a statistical approach, which infers densities that are consistent with entities’ probabilities of default, which in this case are estimated using market-based data. Hence, SE losses capture the effects of interconnectedness structures that are consistent with markets’ perceptions of risk. We then show how SE losses can be decomposed into the likelihood of distress and the magnitude of losses, thereby quantifying the contribution of specific entities to systemic contagion. To illustrate the approach, we quantify SE losses due to Lehman Brothers’ default.
Macroprudential Stress Tests And Policies Searching For Robust And Implementable Frameworks
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Author : Ron Anderson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-11
Macroprudential Stress Tests And Policies Searching For Robust And Implementable Frameworks written by Ron Anderson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis policy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative, forward-looking assessments of the resilience of financial systems as a whole, to particularly adverse shocks. Therefore, they are well suited to support the surveillance of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and to inform the use of macroprudential policy-instruments. This report summarizes the findings of a joint-research effort by MCM and the Systemic-Risk-Centre, which aimed at (i) presenting state-of-the-art approaches on MaPST, including modeling and implementation-challenges; (ii) providing a roadmap for future-research, and; (iii) discussing the potential uses of MaPST to support policy.
Handbook Of Financial Stress Testing
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Author : J. Doyne Farmer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022-04-14
Handbook Of Financial Stress Testing written by J. Doyne Farmer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Discover current uses and future development of stress tests, the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises.
Systemic Risk Modeling How Theory Can Meet Statistics
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Author : Mr.Raphael A Espinoza
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-03-13
Systemic Risk Modeling How Theory Can Meet Statistics written by Mr.Raphael A Espinoza and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-13 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.
Stress Testing At The Imf
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Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-05
Stress Testing At The Imf written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests
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Author : Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-30
Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests written by Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.
Measuring Systemic Risk Adjusted Liquidity Srl
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Author : Andreas Jobst
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-01
Measuring Systemic Risk Adjusted Liquidity Srl written by Andreas Jobst and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
The Changing Fortunes Of Central Banking
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Author : Philipp Hartmann
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2018-03-29
The Changing Fortunes Of Central Banking written by Philipp Hartmann and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-29 with Business & Economics categories.
22.3.1 Basic Characteristics
Sovereign Risk In Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing
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Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-06
Sovereign Risk In Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explains the treatment of sovereign risk in macroprudential solvency stress testing, based on the experiences in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). We discuss four essential steps in assessing the system-wide impact of sovereign risk: scope, loss estimation, shock calibration, and capital impact calculation. Most importantly, a market-consistent valuation approach lies at the heart of assessing the resilience of the financial sector in a tail risk scenario with sovereign distress. We present a flexible, closed-form approach to calibrating haircuts based on changes in expected sovereign defaults affecting bank solvency during adverse macroeconomic conditions. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of using extreme value theory (EVT) in this context, with empirical examples from past FSAPs.