Making Climate Forecasts Matter
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Making Climate Forecasts Matter
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1999-05-27
Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-05-27 with Science categories.
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Making Climate Forecasts Matter
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1999-06-27
Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-06-27 with Science categories.
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Seasonal Climate Forecasting And Managing Risk
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Author : Alberto Troccoli
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-02-22
Seasonal Climate Forecasting And Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-22 with Science categories.
Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2010-09-08
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-08 with Science categories.
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Next Generation Earth System Prediction
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Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2016-08-22
Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-22 with Science categories.
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Improving The Effectiveness Of U S Climate Modeling
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2001-05-18
Improving The Effectiveness Of U S Climate Modeling written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-05-18 with Science categories.
Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.
Knowledge Action Systems For Seasonal To Interannual Climate Forecasting
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2005-01-21
Knowledge Action Systems For Seasonal To Interannual Climate Forecasting written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-01-21 with Science categories.
The National Academies' Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability hosted a workshop "Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting" in 2004 to discover and distill general lessons about the design of effective systems for linking knowledge with action from the last decade's experience with the production and application of seasonal to interannual climate forecasts. Workshop participants described lessons they had learned based on their experiences developing, applying, and using decision support systems in the United States, Columbia, Brazil, and Australia. Some of the key lessons discussed, as characterized by David Cash and James Buizer, were that effective knowledge-action systems: define and frame the problem to be addressed via collaboration between knowledge users and knowledge producers; tend to be end-to-end systems that link user needs to basic scientific findings and observations; are often anchored in "boundary organizations" that act as intermediaries between nodes in the system - most notably between scientists and decision makers; feature flexible processes and institutions to be responsive to what is learned; use funding strategies tailored to the dual public/private character of such systems; and require people who can work across disciplines, issue areas, and the knowledgeâ€"action interface.
Facilitating Climate Change Responses
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2010-11-27
Facilitating Climate Change Responses written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-27 with Science categories.
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, understanding the need for policy makers at the national level to entrain the behavioral and social sciences in addressing the challenges of global climate change, called on the National Research Council to organize two workshops to showcase some of the decision-relevant contributions that these sciences have already made and can advance with future efforts. The workshops focused on two broad areas: (1) mitigation (behavioral elements of a strategy to reduce the net future human influence on climate) and (2) adaptation (behavioral and social determinants of societal capacity to minimize the damage from climate changes that are not avoided). Facilitating Climate Change Responses documents the information presented in the workshop presentations and discussions. This material illustrates some of the ways the behavioral and social sciences can contribute to the new era of climate research.
Informing An Effective Response To Climate Change
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2011-01-07
Informing An Effective Response To Climate Change written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-07 with Science categories.
Global climate change is one of America's most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity-especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change-is affecting global average temperatures, snow and ice cover, sea-level, ocean acidity, growing seasons and precipitation patterns, ecosystems, and human health. Climate-related decisions are being carried out by almost every agency of the federal government, as well as many state and local government leaders and agencies, businesses and individual citizens. Decision makers must contend with the availability and quality of information, the efficacy of proposed solutions, the unanticipated consequences resulting from decisions, the challenge of implementing chosen actions, and must consider how to sustain the action over time and respond to new information. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, a volume in the America's Climate Choices series, describes and assesses different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated responses. It discusses who is making decisions (on the local, state, and national levels), who should be providing information to make decisions, and how that information should be provided. It covers all levels of decision making, including international, state, and individual decision making. While most existing research has focused on the physical aspect of climate change, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change employs theory and case study to describe the efforts undertaken so far, and to guide the development of future decision-making resources. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change offers much-needed guidance to those creating public policy and assists in implementing that policy. The information presented in this book will be invaluable to the research community, especially social scientists studying climate change; practitioners of decision-making assistance, including advocacy organizations, non-profits, and government agencies; and college-level teachers and students.
Ocean Weather Forecasting
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Author : Eric P. Chassignet
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-07-08
Ocean Weather Forecasting written by Eric P. Chassignet and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-08 with Science categories.
Progress in a wide range of ocean research and applications depends upon the prompt and dependable availability of ocean information products. The field of physical oceanography has matured to a point where it is now conceivable to combine numerical models and observations via data assimilation in order to provide ocean prediction products on various spatial and time scales. As a result, many nations have begun large-scale efforts to provide routine products to the oceanographic community. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) provides a framework for these efforts, i. e. , a global system of observations, communications, modeling, and assimilation that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans, in a way that will promote and engender wide utility and availability of this resource for maximum benefit to the community. The societal benefit will be an increased knowledge of the marine environment and ocean climate, predictive skills for societal, industrial, and commercial benefit and tactical and strategic advantage, as well as the provision of a comprehensive and integrated approach to the oceans. We therefore considered it timely, given the international context, to bring together leading scientists to summarize our present knowledge in ocean modeling, ocean observing systems, and data assimilation to present an integrated view of oceanography and to introduce young scientists to the current state of the field and to a wide range of applications.