Masters Of Uncertainty
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Masters Of Uncertainty
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Author : Phaedra Daipha
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2015-11-17
Masters Of Uncertainty written by Phaedra Daipha and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-17 with Social Science categories.
Though we commonly make them the butt of our jokes, weather forecasters are in fact exceptionally good at managing uncertainty. They consistently do a better job calibrating their performance than stockbrokers, physicians, or other decision-making experts precisely because they receive feedback on their decisions in near real time. Following forecasters in their quest for truth and accuracy, therefore, holds the key to the analytically elusive process of decision making as it actually happens. In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha develops a new conceptual framework for the process of decision making, after spending years immersed in the life of a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that predicting the weather will always be more craft than science, Daipha shows how forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather. Impressive data infrastructures and powerful computer models are still only a substitute for the real thing outside, and so forecasters also enlist improvisational collage techniques and an omnivorous appetite for information to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. Intent on capturing decision making in action, Daipha takes the reader through engrossing firsthand accounts of several forecasting episodes (hits and misses) and offers a rare fly-on-the-wall insight into the process and challenges of producing meteorological predictions come rain or come shine. Combining rich detail with lucid argument, Masters of Uncertainty advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts into new light how we make decisions in the digital age.
Masters Of Uncertainty
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Author : Rainer Petek
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-10-30
Masters Of Uncertainty written by Rainer Petek and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-30 with categories.
Masters Of Uncertainty
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Author : Simon Langlois-Bertrand
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Masters Of Uncertainty written by Simon Langlois-Bertrand and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Master S Piece
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Author : Rustin Thor Hadfield
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021-02-02
Master S Piece written by Rustin Thor Hadfield and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-02 with categories.
Entries for this book were created during lecture sessions while obtaining a master's degree in higher education. When balancing mental health necessities, educational and work responsibilities, it proved difficult to decipher a path of purpose. This project helped cope with the ever present uncertainty in young adult life. It is my joy to present to you a glimpse of my wandering mind and eager soul. I am optimistic to share creativity with those looking for a place to let their thoughts roam. Master's Piece is an escape from emotional burdens to a place of patience, reflection and simplicity.
Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers
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Author : John Kay
language : en
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Release Date : 2020-03-17
Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers written by John Kay and has been published by W. W. Norton & Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
A Theory Of Uncertainty
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Author : Andreas Klinke
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2024-08-02
A Theory Of Uncertainty written by Andreas Klinke and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-08-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Using sources from classical to modern that broach the phenomenon of uncertainty and its relation to risk, this book creates a novel approach to the recognized but theoretically often unattended issue of uncertainty. Andreas Klinke develops a new, general theory of uncertainty that provides a taxonomy of categories which are deduced from a critical inventory in philosophy, social and natural sciences, and risk research. Comprising six parts, the philosophical grounding of uncertainty sets the stage for the following philosophical and social scientific accounts and explanation of four distinctive guises of uncertainty that form a taxonomic notion and rationale: ontological, epistemological, linguistic-communicative, and teleological uncertainty. The theoretical-conceptual rumination provides a complex, differentiated view of the anatomy of uncertainty and an understanding that can be used in further theoretical and empirical research, as well as socio-political practice. The latter is delineated in the final part addressing the societal domestication of uncertainty. This book will be of great interest to scholars and students in philosophy, social and natural sciences, risk research, as well as inter- and transdisciplinary science fields.
Seeing Systems
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Author : Barry Oshry
language : en
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Release Date : 2007-08
Seeing Systems written by Barry Oshry and has been published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Sales and distribution are the lifeblood of any business; socially responsible businesses are no different. To make a difference in the world, a business has to make its product or service available and get the public to buy it. But how can one compete with businesses for which the bottom line is the only measure of success? You need to get creative! In this practical and inspiring guide, Thompson and Soper draw on real -world examples to show how a values-driven business can establish a foundation from which innovative sales and distribution strategies naturally flow. They lay out concrete steps for communicating a powerful, motivating vision for the business, and for designing sales and distribution strategies that fit the needs, interests, and habits of the target customer. Values Sell will help any socially conscious entrepreneur develop competitive sales and distribution strategies while staying true to his or her distinctive mission.
Precarity
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Author : Shioh Groot
language : en
Publisher: Massey University Press
Release Date : 2017-09-01
Precarity written by Shioh Groot and has been published by Massey University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-01 with Social Science categories.
Leading UK economist Guy Standing has referred to the precariat as a class-in-the-making. The Precariat are our fellow citizens — be they poor, elderly, disabled, homeless, estranged from their cultural communities, refugees, engaged in casual work — who lead lives of uncertainty, dependency, powerlessness, perilousness and insufficiency. They are the outcome of the gradual dismantling of the welfare state and the withering of union representation. They are also the victims of the changing nature of work. This important book moves beyond the world of labour to identify and illustrate other forms of precarity in New Zealand, including the lack of opportunities for cultural expression and the struggle to be safe. It focuses on New Zealand's emerging class, not to further vilify it but rather to place its members' lived experience in plain sight. As the editors say, &‘It is time that all New Zealanders understood the reality of what many of our citizens endure in the struggle to make ends meet and live dignified lives.'
Assembly
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Author : Natasha Brown
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2021-06-03
Assembly written by Natasha Brown and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-03 with Fiction categories.
SHORTLISTED FOR THE FOLIO PRIZE 2022 SHORTLISTED FOR THE GOLDSMITHS PRIZE 2021 SHORTLISTED FOR THE BOOKS ARE MY BAG FICTION AWARD 2021 'Diamond-sharp, timely and urgent' Observer, Best Debuts of 2021 'Subtle, elegant, scorching' Vogue 'Virtuosic, exquisite, achingly unique' Guardian 'I'm full of the hope, on reading it, that this is the kind of book that doesn't just mark the moment things change, but also makes that change possible' Ali Smith 'Exquisite, daring, utterly captivating. A stunning new writer' Bernardine Evaristo Come of age in the credit crunch. Be civil in a hostile environment. Step out into a world of Go Home vans. Go to Oxbridge, get an education, start a career. Do all the right things. Buy a flat. Buy art. Buy a sort of happiness. But above all, keep your head down. Keep quiet. And keep going. The narrator of Assembly is a Black British woman. She is preparing to attend a lavish garden party at her boyfriend's family estate, set deep in the English countryside. At the same time, she is considering the carefully assembled pieces of herself. As the minutes tick down and the future beckons, she can't escape the question: is it time to take it all apart? 'One of the most talked-about debuts of the year . . . You'll read it in one sitting' Sunday Times Style 'Expertly crafted, remarkable, astonishing... A literary debut with flavours of Jordan Peele's Get Out' Bookseller, Editor's Choice 'Virginia Woolf's Mrs. Dalloway meets Citizen by Claudia Rankine... As breathtakingly graceful as it is mercilessly true' Olivia Sudjic 'Bold and original, with a cool intelligence, and so very truthful about the colonialist structure of British society' Diana Evans 'This marvel of a novel manages to say all there is to say about Britain today' Sabrina Mahfouz
Embracing Uncertainty The Essence Of Leadership
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Author : Phillip G Clampitt
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-09-16
Embracing Uncertainty The Essence Of Leadership written by Phillip G Clampitt and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This guide offers a different approach from the misleading formulae for success offered by much self-help business literature. The authors believe that in today's turbulent competitive environment, it is necessary to embrace uncertainty and set more realistic expectations.