Measures Of Fiscal Risk In Hydrocarbon Exporting Countries
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Measures Of Fiscal Risk In Hydrocarbon Exporting Countries
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Author : Carlos Caceres
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-10-30
Measures Of Fiscal Risk In Hydrocarbon Exporting Countries written by Carlos Caceres and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices.
Managing Fiscal Risks In The Middle East And North Africa
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Author : Racheeda Boukezia
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-11
Managing Fiscal Risks In The Middle East And North Africa written by Racheeda Boukezia and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management. The materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG has been driven by macroeconomic shocks, contingent liabilities, and tail-risk events. The region has a track record of volatile economic growth and sharp exchange rate movements. High dependence on hydrocarbon revenue among MENAPEG oil and gas exporters and pervasive universal subsidies generate considerable budgetary exposure to swings in commodity prices. Substantial government involvement in the economy and large state ownership of firms and banks exposes several MENAPEG countries to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the financial sector. Lastly, the region’s history of social unrest and conflicts together with tail-risk events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and climate change, have been important sources of fiscal risks. Many of the factors historically associated with the materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG countries are likely to remain sources of vulnerability in the future, raising the need for robust fiscal risk management frameworks. Policy reform can strengthen fiscal risk management in MENAPEG. This paper describes precedents where progress is made and provides a broad analytical framework for policymakers to build upon to fully embrace fiscal risk management in all its dimensions. Going forward, it is crucial for national authorities to enhance their capacity to identify, quantify, and assess risk factors and their budget’s exposure to them. This should be followed by thorough fiscal risk analysis to inform policy decisions to mitigate risks. Where risks cannot be mitigated or are judged to be acceptable, countries should consider adopting appropriate medium-term fiscal frameworks to build buffers to deal with them.
Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure And Management
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-05-31
Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure And Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-05-31 with Business & Economics categories.
A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region
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Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-06
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable
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Author : Giacomo Luciani
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-30
When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable written by Giacomo Luciani and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-30 with Political Science categories.
This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Volatile international oil markets and the acceleration of the energy transition has challenged the notion that oil revenues are sufficient to sustain oil economies in the near to medium term. But what is the meaning of economic sustainability? The book discusses the multiple dimensions of the concept: economic diversification, continuing value of resources, taxation and fiscal development, labor market sustainability, sustainable income distribution, environmental sustainability, political order (democracy or authoritarianism) and sustainability, regional integration. The overarching message in this book is that we should move on from the simplistic branding of the Gulf economies as unsustainable and tackle the details of which adaptations they might need to undertake.
Learning To Live With Cheaper Oil
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Author : Mr.Martin Sommer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-06-08
Learning To Live With Cheaper Oil written by Mr.Martin Sommer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.
Fiscal Regimes For Extractive Industries Design And Implementation
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-16
Fiscal Regimes For Extractive Industries Design And Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
Fiscal Systems For Hydrocarbons
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Author : Silvana Tordo
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2007-01-01
Fiscal Systems For Hydrocarbons written by Silvana Tordo and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-01-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Although host governments and investors may share one common objective - the desire for projects to generate high levels off revenue - their other goals are not entirely aligned. Host governments aim to maximize rent for their country over time, while achieving other development and socioeconomic objectives. Investors aim to ensure that the return on investment is consistent with the risk associated with the project, and with their corporations' strategic objectives. To reconcile these often conflicting objectives, more and more countries rely on transparent institutional arrangements and flexible, nuetral fiscal regimes. This paper examines the key elements of the legal and fiscal frameworks utilized in the petroleum sector and aims to outline desirable features that should be considered in the design of fiscal policy with the objective of optimizing the host government's benefits, taking into account the effect this would have on the private sector's investment.
Economic Diversification In Oil Exporting Arab Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-29
Economic Diversification In Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Confronting The Curse
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Author : Cullen Hendrix
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2014-04-12
Confronting The Curse written by Cullen Hendrix and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Countries blessed with abundant natural resources often seek financial and political power from their supposedly lucky status. But the potentially negative impact of natural resources on development of poor countries is captured in the phrase "the resource curse." Instead of success and prosperity, producers of gold, oil, rubber, sugar, and other commodities—many in the least developed parts of Africa and Asia—often remain mired in poverty and plagued by economic mismanagement, political authoritarianism, foreign exploitation, and violent conflict. These difficulties and the many challenges they pose for American foreign policy are the focus of this important new book. Marcus Noland and Cullen S. Hendrix review recent developments as poor countries struggle to avoid the "resource curse" but fall too often into that trap. They call for support for international efforts to encourage greater transparency and improved management of natural resource wealth and for new partnerships between the West and the developing world to "confront the curse."