Medium Term Exchange Rate Forecasting
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Medium Term Exchange Rate Forecasting
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Author : Mr.Guy Meredith
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-01-01
Medium Term Exchange Rate Forecasting written by Mr.Guy Meredith and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.
Exchange Rate Determination
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Author : Michael Rosenberg
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2003-05-19
Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data And Implications For The Foreign Exchange Market
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1990-05-01
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data And Implications For The Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Currency Forecasting
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Author : Michael Roy Rosenberg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
Currency Forecasting written by Michael Roy Rosenberg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business & Economics categories.
This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co
Czech Magic
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Author : Kevin Clinton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-02-10
Czech Magic written by Kevin Clinton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper describes the CNB’s experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building of a system for providing the economic information that policymakers need to implement IFT. The CNB’s experience has been very successful in establishing confidence in monetary policy in the Czech Republic and should provide useful guidance for other central banks that are considering adopting an IFT regime.
Handbook Of Exchange Rates
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Author : Jessica James
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-05-29
Handbook Of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
The Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate
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Author : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-05-01
The Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.
Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate Inference From Profitability
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Author : Mr.Damiano Sandri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-12
Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate Inference From Profitability written by Mr.Damiano Sandri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques And Applications
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Author : I. Moosa
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-02-05
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques And Applications written by I. Moosa and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.
Long
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Author : Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-01-01
Long written by Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater than one time period. We also show that in small to medium samples the long-horizon procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates, diagnostic statistics and graphical evidence incorrectly suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable.