Methodological Approaches To Deal With Uncertainty In Decision Making Processes
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Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Methodological Approaches To Deal With Uncertainty In Decision Making Processes
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Author : Alejandro Valdéz López
language : en
Publisher: Infinite Study
Release Date :
Methodological Approaches To Deal With Uncertainty In Decision Making Processes written by Alejandro Valdéz López and has been published by Infinite Study this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Mathematics categories.
The objective of this investigation is to discuss qualitatively the different methodological approaches developed to deal with uncertainty in decision making processes. For its preparation were used mainly the analysis of documents, the historicallogical method and the analytical-synthetic method which allowed an assessment of the state of the art in the topic. It was possible to identify that the phenomenon of uncertainty has two natures: one aleatory and other epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty arises from stochastic processes, while epistemic uncertainty is caused by imprecision, ignorance, credibility or incompleteness in the information necessary to make the decision. Aleatory uncertainty is effectively modeled by probability theory, which constitutes the starting point for maximizing expected utility in decision processes. Epistemic uncertainty is modeled, depending on the characteristic of the information, mainly through fuzzy sets theory, rough sets or gray systems. Each of these approaches has its advantages and disadvantages, so in order to take advantage of their strengths, hybrid models have been created. Nowadays, given the need to make more robust decisions, all these theories are being refined by the scientific community because, although uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated they have shown that it can be dealt with effectively.
Research Methods Concepts Methodologies Tools And Applications
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Author : Management Association, Information Resources
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2015-01-31
Research Methods Concepts Methodologies Tools And Applications written by Management Association, Information Resources and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-31 with Science categories.
Across a variety of disciplines, data and statistics form the backbone of knowledge. To ensure the reliability and validity of data, appropriate measures must be taken in conducting studies and reporting findings. Research Methods: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications compiles chapters on key considerations in the management, development, and distribution of data. With its focus on both fundamental concepts and advanced topics, this multi-volume reference work will be a valuable addition to researchers, scholars, and students of science, mathematics, and engineering.
Proceedings Of The 19th International Conference On Cyber Warfare And Security
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Author : UKDr. Stephanie J. Blackmonand Dr. Saltuk Karahan
language : en
Publisher: Academic Conferences and publishing limited
Release Date : 2025-04-20
Proceedings Of The 19th International Conference On Cyber Warfare And Security written by UKDr. Stephanie J. Blackmonand Dr. Saltuk Karahan and has been published by Academic Conferences and publishing limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security (ICCWS) is a prominent academic conference that has been held annually for 20 years, bringing together researchers, practitioners, and scholars from around the globe to discuss and advance the field of cyber warfare and security. The conference proceedings are published each year, contributing to the body of knowledge in this rapidly evolving domain. The Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security, 2024 includes Academic research papers, PhD research papers, Master’s Research papers and work-in-progress papers which have been presented and discussed at the conference. The proceedings are of an academic level appropriate to a professional research audience including graduates, post-graduates, doctoral and and post-doctoral researchers. All papers have been double-blind peer reviewed by members of the Review Committee.
Decision Making For The Net Zero Transformation Considerations And New Methodological Approaches
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Author : Mark Workman
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2024-02-01
Decision Making For The Net Zero Transformation Considerations And New Methodological Approaches written by Mark Workman and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-01 with Science categories.
Special edition compiled in partnership with Frontiers sponsored by the Clean Air Task Force. The realisation of Net Zero by 2050 will require the ability for strategy developers, operational planners and decision makers to better manage uncertainty, complexity and emergence. The application of the orthodox set of decision support tools and processes that have been used to explore deep decarbonisation options to 2050 have blinded decision makers to uncertainty, complexity and emergence. Tools have often been used which are inappropriate to the types of decisions being made – a competency which has been glaringly revealed during the C-19 Pandemic. This Frontiers Research Topic will highlight the need for an interdisciplinary, mixed methods approach bringing together insights from modelling, decision science, psychology, anthropology, and sociology to form a compendium of current best practice for decision making for the net zero transformation and new research frontiers. Develop greater awareness amongst policymakers, practitioners and academics as to the importance of: • Understanding the nature of uncertainty when dealing with problems associated with the Net Zero Energy System Transformation; • Increasing importance of deliberative processes to map different value sets beyond least cost; • Acknowledging that decision making under uncertainty requires competency-based training leading to a full appreciation of the tasks at hand. Suggested areas within scope are listed in points 1-12 below. Authors are free to choose specific areas of interest, and to combine these where useful. In general, it will be useful to consider practical application of [ideas], e.g • development of `Use Cases’ and `Decision Making Contexts’ may be useful, e.g. National Govt establishing its Carbon Budget; Institution setting up its investment portfolio. • understanding of how decisions are being made within different jurisdictions, political cultures, and types of organizations (public/private). What is the role of `Decision Context' i.e. organisational decision-making structures, cultures, the role of zeitgeist and dominant narratives, or the relation between academic expertise and policy-makers. 1. Decision making from an end-to-end perspective and the need to take a holistic and interdisciplinary perspective [Editorial Cover Article]. 2. Gap between what policy makers and decision makers around net zero climate policy seek to address and what decision support tools can actually do. Why that gap is increasing (if it is)? 3. Understanding the nature of uncertainty when applying the relevant decision support tool and processes. Not all uncertainty can be addressed within the decision support tool itself. Role of optimism bias; potential role of least worst regret approaches etc 4. What different decision support tools can inform decision makers around net zero climate policy and need for a basket of tools. 5. Why parametric decision support tools and models are pre-eminent - the role of consolidative modelling and exploratory modelling. The inertia of modelling approaches: why it is so hard to break modelling paradigms? 6. What decision science informs us about how decisions are actually made - the importance of process, the role of transparency and deliberation with analysis. 7. Processes that address the biases identified in decision science and impact of identity politics on deliberative decision making. 8. Why decision making under deep uncertainty requires competency-based training, deep subject matter expertise and systemic knowledge. 9. Ministerial and policy making and the decision support requirements: US, EU, UK & China 10. The role of narratives and how uncertainty can be communicated to societal audiences. Storylines and other narrative approaches 11. How to develop participatory approaches allow multiple values, diversity of stakeholders in which climate communication and decision making exists in an iterative exchange with policy. We have started the journey e.g. the role of climate assemblies… what next? 12. Decision making under deep (climate) uncertainty by the financial sector We acknowledge the funding of the manuscripts published in this Research Topic by the Clean Air Task Force. We hereby state publicly that the Clean Air Task Force has had no editorial input in articles included in this Research Topic, thus ensuring that all aspects of this Research Topic are evaluated objectively, unbiased by any specific policy or opinion of the Clean Air Task Force.
Best Practices In Manufacturing Processes
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Author : Jorge Luis García Alcaraz
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-09-18
Best Practices In Manufacturing Processes written by Jorge Luis García Alcaraz and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-18 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book reports the best practices that companies established in Latin America are implementing in their manufacturing processes in order to generate high quality products and stay in the market. It lists the technologies, production and administrative philosophies that are being implemented, presenting a collection of successful cases of studies from Latin America. The book describes how the tools and techniques are being integrated, modified and combined to create new technical resources for assisting the decision making process for better economic performance in manufacturing companies. The efforts deployed for assisting the transformation of raw materials into products and services are described. The authors explain the main key success factors or drivers for success of each tool, technique or hybrid combination approach applied to solve manufacturing problems.
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences
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Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-06-17
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Eccws 2023 22nd European Conference On Cyber Warfare And Security
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Author : Antonios Andreatos
language : en
Publisher: Academic Conferences and publishing limited
Release Date : 2023-06-22
Eccws 2023 22nd European Conference On Cyber Warfare And Security written by Antonios Andreatos and has been published by Academic Conferences and publishing limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-22 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
Dynamics Under Uncertainty
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Author : Dragan Pamucar
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2021-09-08
Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Dragan Pamucar and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-08 with Computers categories.
The dynamics of systems have proven to be very powerful tools in understanding the behavior of different natural phenomena throughout the last two centuries. However, the attributes of natural systems are observed to deviate from their classical states due to the effect of different types of uncertainties. Actually, randomness and impreciseness are the two major sources of uncertainties in natural systems. Randomness is modeled by different stochastic processes and impreciseness could be modeled by fuzzy sets, rough sets, Dempster–Shafer theory, etc.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Via Optimization Modelling And Analysis
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Author : Laxminarayan Sahoo
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2025-03-02
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Via Optimization Modelling And Analysis written by Laxminarayan Sahoo and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-02 with Computers categories.
This book focuses on cutting-edge developments in optimal decision-making incorporating modeling and optimization for determining renewable energy sources, supply chain management, and environmental planning under uncertainty. It addresses mathematical models of cost-effective management policies. This book presents the best decision-making practices for solving real-world challenges. This book provides access to an invaluable collection of various decision-making issues that scholars and industry practitioners use as a reference. The readers are able to understand how decision-making problems are formulated under uncertainty and how to use right optimization strategies to fix problems.