Model Futures
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Models Of Futures Markets
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Author : Barry Goss
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-05-13
Models Of Futures Markets written by Barry Goss and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume presents an entirely new analysis of the economics of futures markets, that will be of interest to both specialists in the area and the generalist economist seeking a new perspective. Through a combination of theoretical investigation and empirical application, three important themes are explored: the gains from futures trading and the efforts of emerging markets to reap these benefits; rationality and rival hypotheses of trader behaviour, such as noise trading; and the effect of regulatory tools on price formation.
Pricing Options With Futures Style Margining
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Author : Alan White
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-02-04
Pricing Options With Futures Style Margining written by Alan White and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This book examines the applicability of a relatively new and powerful tool, genetic adaptive neural networks, to the field of option valuation. A genetic adaptive neural network model is developed to price option contracts with futures-style margining. This model is capable of estimating complex, non-linear relationships without having prior knowledge of the specific nature of the relationships. Traditional option pricing models require that the researcher or practitioner specify the distribution of the underlying asset. In addition, the methodology is able to easily accommodate additional inputs(something that cannot be preformed with existing models. Since 1973, options on stock have been traded on organized exchanges in the United States. An option on a stock gives the option owner the right to buy or sell the stock for a pre-set price.. Since the introduction of stock options, the options market has experienced tremendous growth and has spawned even more exotic types of derivative securities. Obviously, valuing these securities is an issue of great importance to investors and hedgers in the financial marketplace. Existing pricing models produce systematic pricing errors and new models have to be developed for options with differing characteristics. The genetic adaptive neural network is found to provide more accurate valuation than a traditional option pricing model when applied to the 3-month Eurodollar futures-option contract traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange.
Modeling And Pricing In Financial Markets For Weather Derivatives
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Author : Fred Espen Benth
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2013
Modeling And Pricing In Financial Markets For Weather Derivatives written by Fred Espen Benth and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.
Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables are based on a large data set from Lithuania. The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.
International Futures
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2019-03-20
International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-20 with Mathematics categories.
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Advanced Option Pricing Models
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Author : Jeffrey Owen Katz
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2005-03-21
Advanced Option Pricing Models written by Jeffrey Owen Katz and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-03-21 with Business & Economics categories.
Advanced Option Pricing Models details specific conditions under which current option pricing models fail to provide accurate price estimates and then shows option traders how to construct improved models for better pricing in a wider range of market conditions. Model-building steps cover options pricing under conditional or marginal distributions, using polynomial approximations and “curve fitting,” and compensating for mean reversion. The authors also develop effective prototype models that can be put to immediate use, with real-time examples of the models in action.
Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices
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Author : Mr.David A Reichsfeld
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-11-01
Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices written by Mr.David A Reichsfeld and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Peri Urban Futures Scenarios And Models For Land Use Change In Europe
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Author : Kjell Nilsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-02-05
Peri Urban Futures Scenarios And Models For Land Use Change In Europe written by Kjell Nilsson and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-05 with Science categories.
Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented and illustrated by means of 7 case studies which are at the core of the book. This volume presents a novel, future oriented approach to the planning and management of peri-urban areas with a main focus on scenarios and sustainability impact analysis. The research is unique in that it focuses on the future by linking quantitative scenario modeling and sustainability impact analysis with qualitative and in-depth analysis of regional strategies, as well as including a study at European level with case study work also involving a Chinese case study.
Computing Possible Futures
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Author : William B. Rouse
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2019-09-12
Computing Possible Futures written by William B. Rouse and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-12 with categories.
Mathematical modelling and simulation is an increasingly powerful area of mathematics and computer science, which in recent years has been fuelled by the unprecedented access to larger than ever stores of data. These techniques have an increasing number of applications in the professional and political spheres, and people try to predict the results of certain courses of action as accurately as possible. Computing Possible Futures explores the use of models on everyday phenomena such as waiting in lines and driving a car, before expanding the model's complexity to look at how large-scale computational models can help imagine big scale "what-if" scenarios like the effect self-driving cars on the US economy. The successes and failures of complex real world problems are examined, and it is shown how few, if any, failures are due to model errors or computational difficulties. It is also shown how real life decision makers have addressed important problems and used their model-based understanding of possible futures to inform these decisions. Written in an entertaining and accessible way, Computing Possible Futures will help those concerned about the futurity of their decisions to understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it.
Stochastic Modeling Of Electricity And Related Markets
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Author : Fred Espen Benth
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2008-04-14
Stochastic Modeling Of Electricity And Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.
Data Modeling Of Financial Derivatives
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Author : Robert Mamayev
language : en
Publisher: Apress
Release Date : 2014-02-28
Data Modeling Of Financial Derivatives written by Robert Mamayev and has been published by Apress this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Written in plain English and based on successful client engagements, Data Modeling of Financial Derivatives: A Conceptual Approach introduces new and veteran data modelers, financial analysts, and IT professionals to the fascinating world of financial derivatives. Covering futures, forwards, options, swaps, and forward rate agreements, finance and modeling expert Robert Mamayev shows you step-by-step how to structure and describe financial data using advanced data modeling techniques. The book introduces IT professionals, in particular, to various financial and data modeling concepts that they may not have seen before, giving them greater proficiency in the financial language of derivatives—and greater ability to communicate with financial analysts without fear or hesitation. Such knowledge will be especially useful to those looking to pick up the necessary skills to become productive right away working in the financial sector. Financial analysts reading this book will come to grips with various data modeling concepts and therefore be in better position to explain the underlying business to their IT audience. Data Modeling of Financial Derivatives—which presumes no advanced knowledge of derivatives or data modeling—will help you: Learn the best entity–relationship modeling method out there—Barker’s CASE methodology—and its application in the financial industry Understand how to identify and creatively reuse data modeling patterns Gain an understanding of financial derivatives and their various applications Learn how to model derivatives contracts and understand the reasoning behind certain design decisions Resolve derivatives data modeling complexities parsimoniously so that your clients can understand them intuitively Packed with numerous examples, diagrams, and techniques, this book will enable you to recognize the various design patterns that you are most likely to encounter in your professional career and apply them successfully in practice. Anyone working with financial models will find it an invaluable tool and career booster.