Modeling And Estimation Of Commodity Price Dynamics
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Modeling And Estimation Of Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Claudio Cina
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Modeling And Estimation Of Commodity Price Dynamics written by Claudio Cina and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Commodity prices exhibit different characteristics than traditional asset classes. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the corresponding price dynamics transferring a time series approach originally proposed by Chan et al. (1992) to the field of commodities. One unrestricted and eight restricted stochastic models are assessed and empirically tested. Besides an incorporated mean reversion feature, the model also allows the volatility to change with the underlying price. Daily data of 22 commodities out of different sectors are taken into consideration. Generic front month future contracts form July 24, 1997 to January 6, 2011 were used for the analysis (3511 observations), further splitting the time series into a bull (2002 - 2006) and bear market regime (2007 - 2008). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) are applied to estimate the unknown parameters and a &u9672 goodness-of-fit test is run to evaluate which models capture best the dynamics of the corresponding commodities for different market regimes. In line with Geman and Shih (2009) we find that the CEV exponent &u947 plays a very important role in the modeling of commodity price dynamics whereas the mean reversion effect disappears for most of the commodities for the different periods under analysis.
Modeling And Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
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Author : Walter C. Labys
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-03-02
Modeling And Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Commodity Prices And Markets
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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2011-03
Commodity Prices And Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Craig Pirrong
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-10-31
Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Commodities
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Author : M. A. H. Dempster
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-11-05
Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development.This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodi
Commodities And Commodity Derivatives
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Author : Helyette Geman
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-09-24
Commodities And Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.
The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV
Price Dynamics In China
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-09-01
Price Dynamics In China written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Chinese inflation, particularly non-food inflation, has been surprisingly modest in recent years. We find that supply factors, including those captured through upstream foreign commodity and producer prices, have been important drivers of non-food inflation, as has foreign demand for Chinese goods. Domestic demand and monetary conditions seem less important, possibly reflecting a large domestic output gap generated by many years of high investment. Inflation varies systemically within China, with richer (and urban) provinces having lower, more stable, inflation, but this urban inflation also influence that in lower-income provinces. Higher Mainland food inflation also raises inflation in non-Mainland China.
Bayesian Risk Management
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Author : Matt Sekerke
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-08-19
Bayesian Risk Management written by Matt Sekerke and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-19 with Business & Economics categories.
A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.
Food Security Food Prices And Climate Variability
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Author : Molly Brown
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-06-05
Food Security Food Prices And Climate Variability written by Molly Brown and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. This book uses a decade of primary research to examine how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in food-insecure regions of the world. The author reviews environmental, economics and multidisciplinary research to describe the connection between global environmental change, changing weather conditions and local staple food price variability. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation’s World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. These datasets are used to describe the connection, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.
The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-05-18
The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics written by and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-18 with Law categories.
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.