Modeling Banking Sovereign And Macro Risk In A Cca Global Var
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Modeling Banking Sovereign And Macro Risk In A Cca Global Var
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Author : Mr.Dale F. Gray
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-23
Modeling Banking Sovereign And Macro Risk In A Cca Global Var written by Mr.Dale F. Gray and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sovereigns, and a GVAR model to combine the banking, the sovereign, and the macro sphere. The CCA indicators capture the nonlinearity of changes in bank assets, equity capital, credit spreads, and default probabilities. They capture the expected losses, spreads and default probability for sovereigns. Key to the framework is that sovereign credit spreads, banking system credit risk, corporate sector credit risk, economic growth, and credit variables are combined in a fully endogenous setting. Upon estimation and calibration of the global model, we simulate various negative and positive shock scenarios, particularly to bank and sovereign risk. The goal is to use this framework to analyze the impact and spillover of shocks and to help identify policies that would mitigate banking system, sovereign credit risk and recession risk—policies including bank capital increases, purchase of sovereign debt, and guarantees.
Euro Area Policies
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-19
Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.
Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models
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Author : Mr.Dale F. Gray
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-09-01
Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models written by Mr.Dale F. Gray and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.
From Fragmentation To Financial Integration In Europe
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Author : Mr.Charles Enoch
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-12-11
From Fragmentation To Financial Integration In Europe written by Mr.Charles Enoch and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe is a comprehensive study of the European Union financial system. It provides an overview of the issues central to securing a safer financial system for the European Union and looks at the responses to the global financial crisis, both at the macro level—the pendulum of financial integration and fragmentation—and at the micro level—the institutional reforms that are taking place to address the crisis. The emerging financial sector management infrastructure, including the proposed Single Supervisory Mechanism and other elements of a banking union for the euro area, are also discussed in detail.
Macro Prudential Stress Test Models A Survey
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Author : David Aikman
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-25
Macro Prudential Stress Test Models A Survey written by David Aikman and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper, we survey the rapidly developing literature on macroprudential stress-testing models. The scope of the survey includes models of contagion between banks, models of contagion within the wider financial system including non-bank financial institutions such as investment funds, and models that emphasise the two-way interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. Our aim is two-fold: first, to provide a reference guide of the state-of-the-art for those developing such models; second, to distil insights from this endeavour for policy-makers using these models. In our view, the modelling frontier faces three main challenges: (a) our understanding of the potential for amplification in sectors of the non-bank financial system during periods of stress, (b) multi-sectoral models of the non-bank financial system to analyse the behaviour of the overall demand and supply of liquidity under stress and (c) stress testing models that incorporate comprehensive two-way interactions between the financial system and the real economy. Emerging lessons for policy-makers are that, for a given-sized shock hitting the system, its eventual impact will depend on (a) the size of financial institutions' capital and liquidity buffers, (b) the liquidation strategies financial institutions adopt when they need to raise cash, and (c) the topology of the financial network.
Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing
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Author : Mr.Ivo Krznar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-06-30
Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Macro-feedback effects have been identified as a key missing element for more effective macro-prudential stress testing. To fill this gap, this paper develops a framework that facilitates the analysis of both the direct effects of macroeconomic shocks on the solvency of individual banks and feedback effects that allow for the amplification and propagation of shocks that can result from bank deleveraging and credit crunches. The framework ensures consistency in the key relationships between macroeconomic and financial variables, and banks’ balance sheets. This is accomplished by embedding a standard stress-testing framework based on individual banks’ data in a semi-structural macroeconomic model. The framework has numerous applications that can strengthen stress testing and macro financial analysis. Moreover, it provides an avenue for many extensions that address the challenges of incorporating other second-round effects important for comprehensive systemic risk analysis, such as interactions between solvency, liquidity and contagion risks. To this end, the paper presents some preliminary simulations of feedback effects arising from the link between the liquidity and solvency risk.
From Banking To Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-22
From Banking To Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Luxembourg
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-08-28
Luxembourg written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This Technical Note reviews the stability of Luxembourg’s financial system. The financial soundness indicators for Luxembourg’s financial system, which plays a key role in the intermediation of financial capital, have remained relatively robust in recent years. Household stress test results suggest that households’ solvency would be significantly affected by a drop in income and housing prices and a rise in unemployment. Bank liquidity displays broad resilience, but would be weakened should wholesale funding dry up or funding stress emerge in foreign currencies. Banks were found to be less vulnerable to direct contagion risk through bilateral exposure; however, most banks have considerable cross-border exposure.
Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 1
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Author : E. Porras
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-06-29
Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 1 written by E. Porras and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-29 with Social Science categories.
Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.
Recent Developments In Asian Economics
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Author : William A. Barnett
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2021-03-01
Recent Developments In Asian Economics written by William A. Barnett and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Recent Developments in Asian Economics is a crucial resource of current, cutting-edge research for any scholar of international finance and economics. Chapters cover a wide range of topics, such as social welfare systems, organizational culture, sustainability, the impact of economic policy uncertainty, and more.