Modelling Operational Risk Using A Bayesian Approach To Extreme Value Theory
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Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference
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Author : Pavel V. Shevchenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-01-19
Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference written by Pavel V. Shevchenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-19 with Business & Economics categories.
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone explosive changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in the operational environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products, and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks which are very different from market and credit risks. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has developed a new regulatory framework for capital measurement and standards for the banking sector. This has formally defined operational risk and introduced corresponding capital requirements. Many banks are undertaking quantitative modelling of operational risk using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) based on statistical quantification of the frequency and severity of operational risk losses. There are a number of unresolved methodological challenges in the LDA implementation. Overall, the area of quantitative operational risk is very new and different methods are under hot debate. This book is devoted to quantitative issues in LDA. In particular, the use of Bayesian inference is the main focus. Though it is very new in this area, the Bayesian approach is well suited for modelling operational risk, as it allows for a consistent and convenient statistical framework for quantifying the uncertainties involved. It also allows for the combination of expert opinion with historical internal and external data in estimation procedures. These are critical, especially for low-frequency/high-impact operational risks. This book is aimed at practitioners in risk management, academic researchers in financial mathematics, banking industry regulators and advanced graduate students in the area. It is a must-read for anyone who works, teaches or does research in the area of financial risk.
Modelling Operational Risk Using A Bayesian Approach To Extreme Value Theory
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Author : María Elena Rivera Mancía
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Modelling Operational Risk Using A Bayesian Approach To Extreme Value Theory written by María Elena Rivera Mancía and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
"Extreme-value theory is concerned with the tail behaviour of probability distributions. In recent years, it has found many applications in areas as diverse as hydrology, actuarial science, and finance, where complex phenomena must often be modelled from a small number of observations.Extreme-value theory can be used to assess the risk of rare events either through the block maxima or peaks-over-threshold method. The choice of threshold is both influential and delicate, as a balance between the bias and variance of the estimates is required. At present, this threshold is often chosen arbitrarily, either graphically or by setting it as some high quantile of the data.Bayesian inference is an alternative to deal with this problem by treating the threshold as a parameter in the model. In addition, a Bayesian approach allows for the incorporation of internal and external observations in combination with expert opinion, thereby providing a natural probabilistic framework to evaluate risk models.This thesis presents a Bayesian inference framework for extremes. We focus on a model proposed by Behrens et al. (2004), where an analysis of extremes is performed using a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the centre and a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for the tail of the distribution. Our approach accounts for all the information available in making inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold included. A Bayesian analysis is then performed by using expert opinions to determine the parameters for prior distributions; posterior inference is carried out through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply this methodology to operational risk data to analyze its performance.The contributions of this thesis can be outlined as follows:-Bayesian models have been barely explored in operational risk analysis. In Chapter 3, we show how these models can be adapted to operational risk analysis using fraud data collected by different banks between 2007 and 2010. By combining prior information to the data, we can estimate the minimum capital requirement and risk measures such as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) for each bank.-The use of expert opinion plays a fundamental role in operational risk modelling. However, most of time this issue is not addressed properly. In Chapter 4, we consider the context of the problem and show how to construct a prior distribution based on measures that experts are familiar with, including VaR and ES. The purpose is to facilitate prior elicitation and reproduce expert judgement faithfully.-In Section 4.3, we describe techniques for the combination of expert opinions. While this issue has been addressed in other fields, it is relatively recent in our context. We examine how different expert opinions may influence the posterior distribution and how to build a prior distribution in this case. Results are presented on simulated and real data.-In Chapter 5, we propose several new mixture models with Gamma and Generalized Pareto elements. Our models improve upon previous work by Behrens et al. (2004) since the loss distribution is either continuous at a fixed quantile or it has continuous first derivative at the blend point. We also consider the cases when the scaling is arbitrary and when the density is discontinuous.-Finally, we introduce two nonparametric models. The first one is based on the fact that the GPD model can be represented as a Gamma mixture of exponential distributions, while the second uses a Dirichlet process prior on the parameters of the GPD model." --
Extreme Value Theory With Applications To Natural Hazards
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Author : Nicolas Bousquet
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-10-09
Extreme Value Theory With Applications To Natural Hazards written by Nicolas Bousquet and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-09 with Mathematics categories.
This richly illustrated book describes statistical extreme value theory for the quantification of natural hazards, such as strong winds, floods and rainfall, and discusses an interdisciplinary approach to allow the theoretical methods to be applied. The approach consists of a number of steps: data selection and correction, non-stationary theory (to account for trends due to climate change), and selecting appropriate estimation techniques based on both decision-theoretic features (e.g., Bayesian theory), empirical robustness and a valid treatment of uncertainties. It also examines and critically reviews alternative approaches based on stochastic and dynamic numerical models, as well as recently emerging data analysis issues and presents large-scale, multidisciplinary, state-of-the-art case studies. Intended for all those with a basic knowledge of statistical methods interested in the quantification of natural hazards, the book is also a valuable resource for engineers conducting risk analyses in collaboration with scientists from other fields (such as hydrologists, meteorologists, climatologists).
Operational Risk Toward Basel Iii
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Author : Greg N. Gregoriou
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-03-03
Operational Risk Toward Basel Iii written by Greg N. Gregoriou and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This book consists of chapters by contributors (well-known professors, practitioners, and consultants from large and well respected money management firms within this area) offering the latest research in the OpRisk area. The chapters highlight how operational risk helps firms survive and prosper by givingreaders the latest, cutting-edge techniques in OpRisk management. Topics discussed include: Basel Accord II, getting ready for the New Basel III, Extreme Value Theory, the new capital requirements and regulations in the banking sector in relation to financial reporting (including developing concepts such as OpRisk Insurance which wasn't a part of the Basel II framework). The book further discussed quantitative and qualitative aspects of OpRisk, as well as fraud and applications to the fund industry.
Encyclopedia Of Quantitative Risk Analysis And Assessment
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-09-02
Encyclopedia Of Quantitative Risk Analysis And Assessment written by and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-02 with Mathematics categories.
Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.
Risk Ruin And Survival
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Author : Ricardas Zitikis
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2020-04-02
Risk Ruin And Survival written by Ricardas Zitikis and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks. The articles in the book were written with a broad audience in mind and should provide enjoyable reading for those with university level degrees and/or those who have studied for accreditation by various actuarial and financial societies.
Quantitative Operational Risk Models
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Author : Catalina Bolance
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2012-02-15
Quantitative Operational Risk Models written by Catalina Bolance and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Using real-life examples from the banking and insurance industries, Quantitative Operational Risk Models details how internal data can be improved based on external information of various kinds. Using a simple and intuitive methodology based on classical transformation methods, the book includes real-life examples of the combination of internal dat
Future Perspectives In Risk Models And Finance
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Author : Alain Bensoussan
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-11-20
Future Perspectives In Risk Models And Finance written by Alain Bensoussan and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a perspective on a number of approaches to financial modelling and risk management. It examines both theoretical and practical issues. Theoretically, financial risks models are models of a real and a financial “uncertainty”, based on both common and private information and economic theories defining the rules that financial markets comply to. Financial models are thus challenged by their definitions and by a changing financial system fueled by globalization, technology growth, complexity, regulation and the many factors that contribute to rendering financial processes to be continuously questioned and re-assessed. The underlying mathematical foundations of financial risks models provide future guidelines for risk modeling. The book’s chapters provide selective insights and developments that can contribute to better understand the complexity of financial modelling and its ability to bridge financial theories and their practice. Future Perspectives in Risk Models and Finance begins with an extensive outline by Alain Bensoussan et al. of GLM estimation techniques combined with proofs of fundamental results. Applications to static and dynamic models provide a unified approach to the estimation of nonlinear risk models. A second section is concerned with the definition of risks and their management. In particular, Guegan and Hassani review a number of risk models definition emphasizing the importance of bi-modal distributions for financial regulation. An additional chapter provides a review of stress testing and their implications. Nassim Taleb and Sandis provide an anti-fragility approach based on “skin in the game”. To conclude, Raphael Douady discusses the noncyclical CAR (Capital Adequacy Rule) and their effects of aversion of systemic risks. A third section emphasizes analytic financial modelling approaches and techniques. Tapiero and Vallois provide an overview of mathematical systems and their use in financial modeling. These systems span the fundamental Arrow-Debreu framework underlying financial models of complete markets and subsequently, mathematical systems departing from this framework but yet generalizing their approach to dynamic financial models. Explicitly, models based on fractional calculus, on persistence (short memory) and on entropy-based non-extensiveness. Applications of these models are used to define a modeling approach to incomplete financial models and their potential use as a “measure of incompleteness”. Subsequently Bianchi and Pianese provide an extensive overview of multi-fractional models and their important applications to Asset price modeling. Finally, Tapiero and Jinquyi consider the binomial pricing model by discussing the effects of memory on the pricing of asset prices.
Fundamental Aspects Of Operational Risk And Insurance Analytics
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Author : Marcelo G. Cruz
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-01-20
Fundamental Aspects Of Operational Risk And Insurance Analytics written by Marcelo G. Cruz and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-20 with Mathematics categories.
A one-stop guide for the theories, applications, and statistical methodologies essential to operational risk Providing a complete overview of operational risk modeling and relevant insurance analytics, Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk offers a systematic approach that covers the wide range of topics in this area. Written by a team of leading experts in the field, the handbook presents detailed coverage of the theories, applications, and models inherent in any discussion of the fundamentals of operational risk, with a primary focus on Basel II/III regulation, modeling dependence, estimation of risk models, and modeling the data elements. Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk begins with coverage on the four data elements used in operational risk framework as well as processing risk taxonomy. The book then goes further in-depth into the key topics in operational risk measurement and insurance, for example diverse methods to estimate frequency and severity models. Finally, the book ends with sections on specific topics, such as scenario analysis; multifactor modeling; and dependence modeling. A unique companion with Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk, the handbook also features: Discussions on internal loss data and key risk indicators, which are both fundamental for developing a risk-sensitive framework Guidelines for how operational risk can be inserted into a firm’s strategic decisions A model for stress tests of operational risk under the United States Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program A valuable reference for financial engineers, quantitative analysts, risk managers, and large-scale consultancy groups advising banks on their internal systems, the handbook is also useful for academics teaching postgraduate courses on the methodology of operational risk.
Multivariate Estimation For Operational Risk With Judicious Use Of Extreme Value Theory
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Author : Mahmoud El-Gamal
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Multivariate Estimation For Operational Risk With Judicious Use Of Extreme Value Theory written by Mahmoud El-Gamal and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Extreme value theory categories.