Modern Optimization Methods For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Modern Optimization Methods For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Alexei A. Gaivoronski
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2023-10-06
Modern Optimization Methods For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Alexei A. Gaivoronski and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-06 with Computers categories.
The book comprises original articles on topical issues of risk theory, rational decision making, statistical decisions, and control of stochastic systems. The articles are the outcome of a series international projects involving the leading scholars in the field of modern stochastic optimization and decision making. The structure of stochastic optimization solvers is described. The solvers in general implement stochastic quasi-gradient methods for optimization and identification of complex nonlinear models. These models constitute an important methodology for finding optimal decisions under risk and uncertainty. While a large part of current approaches towards optimization under uncertainty stems from linear programming (LP) and often results in large LPs of special structure, stochastic quasi-gradient methods confront nonlinearities directly without need of linearization. This makes them an appropriate tool for solving complex nonlinear problems, concurrent optimization and simulation models, and equilibrium situations of different types, for instance, Nash or Stackelberg equilibrium situations. The solver finds the equilibrium solution when the optimization model describes the system with several actors. The solver is parallelizable, performing several simulation threads in parallel. It is capable of solving stochastic optimization problems, finding stochastic Nash equilibria, and of composite stochastic bilevel problems where each level may require the solution of stochastic optimization problem or finding Nash equilibrium. Several complex examples with applications to water resources management, energy markets, pricing of services on social networks are provided. In the case of power system, regulator makes decision on the final expansion plan, considering the strategic behavior of regulated companies and coordinating the interests of different economic entities. Such a plan can be an equilibrium − a planned decision where a company cannot increase its expected gain unilaterally.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty In Financial Markets
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Author : Jonas Ekblom
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2018-09-13
Decision Making Under Uncertainty In Financial Markets written by Jonas Ekblom and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-13 with categories.
This thesis addresses the topic of decision making under uncertainty, with particular focus on financial markets. The aim of this research is to support improved decisions in practice, and related to this, to advance our understanding of financial markets. Stochastic optimization provides the tools to determine optimal decisions in uncertain environments, and the optimality conditions of these models produce insights into how financial markets work. To be more concrete, a great deal of financial theory is based on optimality conditions derived from stochastic optimization models. Therefore, an important part of the development of financial theory is to study stochastic optimization models that step-by-step better capture the essence of reality. This is the motivation behind the focus of this thesis, which is to study methods that in relation to prevailing models that underlie financial theory allow additional real-world complexities to be properly modeled. The overall purpose of this thesis is to develop and evaluate stochastic optimization models that support improved decisions under uncertainty on financial markets. The research into stochastic optimization in financial literature has traditionally focused on problem formulations that allow closed-form or `exact' numerical solutions; typically through the application of dynamic programming or optimal control. The focus in this thesis is on two other optimization methods, namely stochastic programming and approximate dynamic programming, which open up opportunities to study new classes of financial problems. More specifically, these optimization methods allow additional and important aspects of many real-world problems to be captured. This thesis contributes with several insights that are relevant for both financial and stochastic optimization literature. First, we show that the modeling of several real-world aspects traditionally not considered in the literature are important components in a model which supports corporate hedging decisions. Specifically, we document the importance of modeling term premia, a rich asset universe and transaction costs. Secondly, we provide two methodological contributions to the stochastic programming literature by: (i) highlighting the challenges of realizing improved decisions through more stages in stochastic programming models; and (ii) developing an importance sampling method that can be used to produce high solution quality with few scenarios. Finally, we design an approximate dynamic programming model that gives close to optimal solutions to the classic, and thus far unsolved, portfolio choice problem with constant relative risk aversion preferences and transaction costs, given many risky assets and a large number of time periods.
Introduction To Optimization Based Decision Making
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Author : Joao Luis de Miranda
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2021-12-24
Introduction To Optimization Based Decision Making written by Joao Luis de Miranda and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-24 with Business & Economics categories.
The large and complex challenges the world is facing, the growing prevalence of huge data sets, and the new and developing ways for addressing them (artificial intelligence, data science, machine learning, etc.), means it is increasingly vital that academics and professionals from across disciplines have a basic understanding of the mathematical underpinnings of effective, optimized decision-making. Without it, decision makers risk being overtaken by those who better understand the models and methods, that can best inform strategic and tactical decisions. Introduction to Optimization-Based Decision-Making provides an elementary and self-contained introduction to the basic concepts involved in making decisions in an optimization-based environment. The mathematical level of the text is directed to the post-secondary reader, or university students in the initial years. The prerequisites are therefore minimal, and necessary mathematical tools are provided as needed. This lean approach is complemented with a problem-based orientation and a methodology of generalization/reduction. In this way, the book can be useful for students from STEM fields, economics and enterprise sciences, social sciences and humanities, as well as for the general reader interested in multi/trans-disciplinary approaches. Features Collects and discusses the ideas underpinning decision-making through optimization tools in a simple and straightforward manner Suitable for an undergraduate course in optimization-based decision-making, or as a supplementary resource for courses in operations research and management science Self-contained coverage of traditional and more modern optimization models, while not requiring a previous background in decision theory
Handbook On Decision Making
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Author : Jie Lu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-03-15
Handbook On Decision Making written by Jie Lu and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Multicriteria And Optimization Models For Risk Reliability And Maintenance Decision Analysis
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Author : Adiel Teixeira de Almeida
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Multicriteria And Optimization Models For Risk Reliability And Maintenance Decision Analysis written by Adiel Teixeira de Almeida and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This book considers a broad range of areas from decision making methods applied in the contexts of Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM). Intended primarily as an update of the 2015 book Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis, this edited work provides an integration of applied probability and decision making. Within applied probability, it primarily includes decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In decision making, it includes multicriteria decision making/aiding (MCDM/A) methods and optimization models. Within MCDM, in addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to mathematical programming areas are considered, such as multiobjective linear programming, multiobjective nonlinear programming, game theory and negotiations, and multiobjective optimization. Methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. In MCDA, several other methods are considered, such as outranking methods, rough sets and constructive approaches. The book addresses an innovative treatment of decision making in RRM, improving the integration of fundamental concepts from both areas of RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting current research developments in decision making on RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models on practical applications on RRM are discussed and new approaches for overcoming those drawbacks are presented.
Introduction To Optimization Based Decision Making
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Author : João Luis de Miranda
language : en
Publisher: Chapman & Hall/CRC
Release Date : 2021-12-19
Introduction To Optimization Based Decision Making written by João Luis de Miranda and has been published by Chapman & Hall/CRC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-19 with Business & Economics categories.
The large and complex challenges the world is facing, the growing prevalence of huge data sets, and the new and developing ways for addressing them (artificial intelligence, data science, machine learning, etc.), means it is increasingly vital that academics and professionals from across disciplines have a basic understanding of the mathematical underpinnings of effective, optimized decision-making. Without it, decision makers risk being overtaken by those who better understand the models and methods, that can best inform strategic and tactical decisions. Introduction to Optimization-Based Decision-Making provides an elementary and self-contained introduction to the basic concepts involved in making decisions in an optimization-based environment. The mathematical level of the text is directed to the post-secondary reader, or university students in the initial years. The prerequisites are therefore minimal, and necessary mathematical tools are provided as needed. This lean approach is complemented with a problem-based orientation and a methodology of generalization/reduction. In this way, the book can be useful for students from STEM fields, economics and enterprise sciences, social sciences and humanities, as well as for the general reader interested in multi/trans-disciplinary approaches. Features Collects and discusses the ideas underpinning decision-making through optimization tools in a simple and straightforward manner Suitable for an undergraduate course in optimization-based decision-making, or as a supplementary resource for courses in operations research and management science Self-contained coverage of traditional and more modern optimization models, while not requiring a previous background in decision theory
Algorithms For Worst Case Design And Applications To Risk Management
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Author : Berç Rustem
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2009-02-09
Algorithms For Worst Case Design And Applications To Risk Management written by Berç Rustem and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-02-09 with Mathematics categories.
Recognizing that robust decision making is vital in risk management, this book provides concepts and algorithms for computing the best decision in view of the worst-case scenario. The main tool used is minimax, which ensures robust policies with guaranteed optimal performance that will improve further if the worst case is not realized. The applications considered are drawn from finance, but the design and algorithms presented are equally applicable to problems of economic policy, engineering design, and other areas of decision making. Critically, worst-case design addresses not only Armageddon-type uncertainty. Indeed, the determination of the worst case becomes nontrivial when faced with numerous--possibly infinite--and reasonably likely rival scenarios. Optimality does not depend on any single scenario but on all the scenarios under consideration. Worst-case optimal decisions provide guaranteed optimal performance for systems operating within the specified scenario range indicating the uncertainty. The noninferiority of minimax solutions--which also offer the possibility of multiple maxima--ensures this optimality. Worst-case design is not intended to necessarily replace expected value optimization when the underlying uncertainty is stochastic. However, wise decision making requires the justification of policies based on expected value optimization in view of the worst-case scenario. Conversely, the cost of the assured performance provided by robust worst-case decision making needs to be evaluated relative to optimal expected values. Written for postgraduate students and researchers engaged in optimization, engineering design, economics, and finance, this book will also be invaluable to practitioners in risk management.
Advanced Models And Tools For Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Risk Contexts
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Author : González-Prida, Vicente
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2020-09-04
Advanced Models And Tools For Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Risk Contexts written by González-Prida, Vicente and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Business industries depend on advanced models and tools that provide an optimal and objective decision-making process, ultimately guaranteeing improved competitiveness, reducing risk, and eliminating uncertainty. Thanks in part to the digital era of the modern world, reducing these conditions has become much more manageable. Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts provides research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as industrial informatics, knowledge management, and production planning, this book is ideally designed for decision makers, researchers, engineers, academicians, and students.
Managing Safety Of Heterogeneous Systems
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Author : Yuri Ermoliev
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-01-31
Managing Safety Of Heterogeneous Systems written by Yuri Ermoliev and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments; yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional “deterministic predictions” analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using “synthetic” information derived by integration of “hard” elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with “soft” elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.
Methods Of Optimization And Systems Analysis For Problems Of Transcomputational Complexity
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Author : Ivan V. Sergienko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-07-27
Methods Of Optimization And Systems Analysis For Problems Of Transcomputational Complexity written by Ivan V. Sergienko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-27 with Mathematics categories.
This work presents lines of investigation and scientific achievements of the Ukrainian school of optimization theory and adjacent disciplines. These include the development of approaches to mathematical theories, methodologies, methods, and application systems for the solution of applied problems in economy, finances, energy saving, agriculture, biology, genetics, environmental protection, hardware and software engineering, information protection, decision making, pattern recognition, self-adapting control of complicated objects, personnel training, etc. The methods developed include sequential analysis of variants, nondifferential optimization, stochastic optimization, discrete optimization, mathematical modeling, econometric modeling, solution of extremum problems on graphs, construction of discrete images and combinatorial recognition, etc. Some of these methods became well known in the world's mathematical community and are now known as classic methods.