Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Dynamics In A Behavioral Open Economy Model
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Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Dynamics In A Behavioral Open Economy Model
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Author : Marcin Kolasa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-03
Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Dynamics In A Behavioral Open Economy Model written by Marcin Kolasa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-03 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model in which agents are boundedly rational à la Gabaix (2020). Our setup nests rational expectations (RE) as a special case and it can successfully mitigate many “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates. Since the model implies an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition featuring behavioral expectations, our results are also consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that several UIP puzzles vanish when actual exchange rate expectations are used (instead of realizations implicitly coupled with the RE assumption). We find that cognitive discounting dampens the effects of current monetary shocks and lowers the efficacy of forward guidance (FG), but its relative importance in mitigating the so-called FG puzzle is decreasing in openness. Finally, we show that accounting for myopia exacerbates the small open economy unit-root problem, makes positive monetary spillovers more likely, and increases the persistence of net foreign assets and the real exchange rate.
Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Martin D. D. Evans
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2011-03-14
Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Exchange Rate Economics
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Author : Paul de Grauwe
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2005
Exchange Rate Economics written by Paul de Grauwe and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Discussions of the different theoretical and empirical paradigms for setting and predicting exchange rates.
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Behavioural Macroeconomics
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Author : Paul De Grauwe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Behavioural Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Business & Economics categories.
Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.
The Asean Way
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Author : Ms.Ana Corbacho
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-02
The Asean Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
Lectures On Behavioral Macroeconomics
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Author : Paul De Grauwe
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-10-14
Lectures On Behavioral Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.
6.2 Introducing Asset Prices in the Behavioral Model -- 6.3 Simulating the Model -- 6.4 Should the Central Bank Care about Stock Prices? -- 6.5 Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability -- 6.6 The Trade-off between Output and Inflation Variability -- 6.7 Conclusion -- 7 Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.1 Fundamentalists Are Biased -- 7.2 Shocks and Trade-offs -- 7.3 Further Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8 Empirical Issues -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Correlation of Output Movements and Animal Spirits -- 8.3 Model Predictions: Higher Moments -- 8.4 Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index
Monetary Policy With Uncertain Inflation Persistence
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Author : Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Monetary Policy With Uncertain Inflation Persistence written by Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
When uncertain about inflation persistence, central banks are well-advised to adopt a robust strategy when setting interest rates. This robust approach, characterized by a "better safe than sorry" philosophy, entails incurring a modest cost to safeguard against a protracted period of deviating inflation. Applied to the post-pandemic period of exceptional uncertainty and elevated inflation, this strategy would have called for a tightening bias. Specifically, a high level of uncertainty surrounding wage, profit, and price dynamics requires a more front-loaded increase in interest rates compared to a baseline scenario which the policymaker fully understands how shocks to those variables are transmitted to inflation and output. This paper provides empirical evidence of such uncertainty and estimates a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the euro area to derive a robust interest rate path for the ECB which serves to illustrate the case for insuring against inflation turning out to have greater persistence.
Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Jean-OIiver Hairault
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2003-12-18
Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Jean-OIiver Hairault and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-12-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This important new book builds upon the seminal work by Obsfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics and aims at providing a coherent and modern framework for thinking about exchange rate dynamics. With a wide range of contributions, this book is likely to be welcomed by the macroeconomics and financial community.
Flexible Exchange Rates For A Stable World Economy
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Author : Joseph E. Gagnon
language : en
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Release Date : 2011
Flexible Exchange Rates For A Stable World Economy written by Joseph E. Gagnon and has been published by Peterson Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.
Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.