Mr Taylor And The Central Bank Two Inference Exercises
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Mr Taylor And The Central Bank Two Inference Exercises
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Author : Francesco Luna
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-15
Mr Taylor And The Central Bank Two Inference Exercises written by Francesco Luna and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.
The Handbook Of Global Shadow Banking Volume I
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Author : Luc Nijs
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-06-30
The Handbook Of Global Shadow Banking Volume I written by Luc Nijs and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.
Central Bank Independence And Inflation In Latin America Through The Lens Of History
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Author : Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-16
Central Bank Independence And Inflation In Latin America Through The Lens Of History written by Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-16 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based on Latin America’s experience over the past 100 years. We present a novel historical dataset of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries and recount the rocky journey traveled by Latin America to achieve central bank independence and price stability. After their creation as independent institutions, central bank independence was eroded in the 1930s at the time of the Great Depression and following the abandonement of the gold exchange standard. Then, by the 1940s, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social discontent, to grant central banks political and operational independence to focus on fighting inflation starting in the 1990s. The empirical evidence confirms the strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation and finds that improvements in independence result in a steady decline in inflation. It also shows that high levels of central bank independence are associated with reductions in the likelihood of high inflation episodes, especially when accompanied by reductions in central bank financing to the central government.
Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate Inference From Profitability
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Author : Mr.Damiano Sandri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-12
Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate Inference From Profitability written by Mr.Damiano Sandri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
Credit Growth And Economic Recovery In Europe After The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Sergei Antoshin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-17
Credit Growth And Economic Recovery In Europe After The Global Financial Crisis written by Sergei Antoshin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have been weaker than previous recoveries, with the “double-dip” recessions in 2011–12 in many countries and the worldwide reach of the GFC explaining the underperformance. Bank lending has been subdued as well, but this appears to have only held back the recovery relatively moderately. A 10 percent increase in bank credit to the private sector is associated with a rise of 0.6–1 percent in real GDP and 2–21⁄2 percent in real private investment. These relationships have not changed significantly during and after the GFC. Loan quality, customer deposits, bank equity price index, and bank capital appear to be closely linked to bank lending. As expected, bank profitability is positively and significantly influenced by credit growth, but this relationship has weakened after the GFC.
Opening Up Capital Flows And Financial Sector Dynamics In Low Income Developing Countries
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Author : Sebastian Horn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-24
Opening Up Capital Flows And Financial Sector Dynamics In Low Income Developing Countries written by Sebastian Horn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, many low-income developing countries have substantially increased openness towards external financing and have received large capital inflows. Using bank-level micro data, this paper finds that capital inflows have been associated with financial deepening through increases in bank loans, deposits, and wholesale funding. Domestic banks increase loans more than foreign banks. There are only modest signs of a build-up in financial vulnerabilities. Causality is examined through an instrumental variable approach and an augmented inverse-probability weighting estimator. These approaches indicate only limited evidence for global push effects, pointing towards the importance of domestic pull factors.
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Gustavo Adler
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-23
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Policy Uncertainty written by Gustavo Adler and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-23 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
Monetary Policy And Relative Price Shocks In South Africa And Other Inflation Targeters
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Author : Secil Topak
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-12-01
Monetary Policy And Relative Price Shocks In South Africa And Other Inflation Targeters written by Secil Topak and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
When faced with a relative price shock, monetary authorities often aim to contain its second round effects on inflation while accepting first round effects. We analyze the experience of South Africa and other inflation targeters to explore whether and when this policy prescription implies changing the monetary policy stance. Inflation targeting central banks differ on how aggressively they typically react to relative price shocks, reflecting differences in resilience of underlying inflation to such shocks. An examination of individual policy decisions reveals the importance of the broader economic context in framing the responses to relative price shocks.
Sessional Papers Printed By Order Of The House Of Lords Minutes Of Proceedings Public Bills Reports From Committees Miscellaneous
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Author : Great Britain. Parliament. House of Lords
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
Sessional Papers Printed By Order Of The House Of Lords Minutes Of Proceedings Public Bills Reports From Committees Miscellaneous written by Great Britain. Parliament. House of Lords and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Great Britain categories.
Includes lists of orders, rules, bills etc.
Who S Driving Whom Analyzing External And Intra Regional Linkages In The Americas
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Author : Mr.Jeronimo Zettelmeyer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-10-09
Who S Driving Whom Analyzing External And Intra Regional Linkages In The Americas written by Mr.Jeronimo Zettelmeyer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
In a global economy beset by concerns over a growth recession, financial volatility, and rising inflation, countries in the Western Hemisphere have been among the few bright spots in recent years. This has not come as a surprise to those following the significant progress achieved by many countries in recent years, both in macroeconomic management and on the structural and institutional front. Hence, there can be little doubt, as this book argues, that economic and financial linkages between Latin America, the United States, and other important regions of the world economy have undergone profound change.