National Defense Intelligence College Paper Intelligence Analysis In Theater Joint Intelligence Centers An Experiment In Applying Structured Methods Involving Various Scenarios And Two Tailed Tests
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National Defense Intelligence College Paper Intelligence Analysis In Theater Joint Intelligence Centers An Experiment In Applying Structured Methods Involving Various Scenarios And Two Tailed Tests
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Author : Department of Defense
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-01-15
National Defense Intelligence College Paper Intelligence Analysis In Theater Joint Intelligence Centers An Experiment In Applying Structured Methods Involving Various Scenarios And Two Tailed Tests written by Department of Defense and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-15 with categories.
This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. In clear, articulate, unmistakable language, Master Sergeant Folker's learned thesis sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The controversy is largely one-sided, because proponents of intuitive analysis see no purpose in debating the issue, as they are completely satisfied with the status quo. It is only the structuring enthusiasts who see a need for drastic change in the way analysis is conducted. Because, as Folker points out, supporters of the status quo include not only most analysts but most commanders as well, the structuring enthusiasts have never made progress in reforming the other side. And they won't make any progress until the superiority of structured analysis over intuitive analysis is proved, which Folker has taken a first giant step in doing. And it is precisely on this point that Folker challenges the Intelligence Community-- indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well--to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive. Given the wide range of available structuring techniques, each one should be tested in competition with intuition. There are many myths prevalent in the analytic community, public and private, concerning structured analysis: It is time-consuming and overly complicated; it eliminates the indispensable role of intuition; it involves numbers and arcane formulae that render analysis mechanical and devoid of creative solutions; and so on. Tests like Folker's will surely dispose of these myths and demonstrate the immense value and power of structuring.His thesis, moreover, should encourage students to undertake research experiments that challenge long-held beliefs and test new theories of military interest. JMIC students are especially well placed to conduct thoughtful, creative research because they bring to this scholarly environment a rich mixture of background and viewpoints, and because they remain vitally involved in the business of wringing meaning from a great variety of intelligence information.Topics and subjects include: qualitative analysis, structured methodologies, case studies, scenarios, two-tailed tests.
Intelligence Analysis In Theater Joint Intelligence Centers
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Author : Robert D. Folker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Intelligence Analysis In Theater Joint Intelligence Centers written by Robert D. Folker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Intelligence service categories.
A growing number of JMIC students have began to incorporate replicable research design into their theses. This distillation of Master Sergeant Folker's theses shows how fruitful this approach can be. By taking advantage of on-site research funds available from the College, he managed, in brief visits to four Unified Command Joint Intelligence Centers, to carry out a controlled experiment to measure the impact of analyst familiarity with and use of one structured analytic technique hypothesis testing. His findings, if corroborated by follow-on studies, could have a substantial impact on Intelligence Community analytical practices, and even some influence on how senior policy officials react to analytical products. Managers of analytical personnel might also note that structured methods would appear, from this study of non-specialized joint intelligence center analysts, to be useful to specialized analysts who may be required to move beyond their areas of deep expertise to cover new or unfamiliar assignments.
Cases In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-04-28
Cases In Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-28 with Political Science categories.
In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.
Policy Analysis In National Security Affairs New Methods For A New Era
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Author : Richard Kugler
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2012-07-18
Policy Analysis In National Security Affairs New Methods For A New Era written by Richard Kugler and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-18 with categories.
This book is intended to help fill a void in the literature while making a contribution to public awareness. Most books on national security affairs focus on substantive issues, such as nuclear proliferation, arguing in favor of one policy or another. This book addresses something more basic: how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It illuminates how key methods of analysis can be employed, by experts and nonexperts, to focus widely, address small details, or do both at the same time. To my knowledge, there is no other book quite like it.
Portfolio Analysis Methods For Assessing Capability Options
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008-02-19
Portfolio Analysis Methods For Assessing Capability Options written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-19 with Political Science categories.
An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.
Artificial Intelligence And Games
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Author : Georgios N. Yannakakis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-02-17
Artificial Intelligence And Games written by Georgios N. Yannakakis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-17 with Computers categories.
This is the first textbook dedicated to explaining how artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be used in and for games. After introductory chapters that explain the background and key techniques in AI and games, the authors explain how to use AI to play games, to generate content for games and to model players. The book will be suitable for undergraduate and graduate courses in games, artificial intelligence, design, human-computer interaction, and computational intelligence, and also for self-study by industrial game developers and practitioners. The authors have developed a website (http://www.gameaibook.org) that complements the material covered in the book with up-to-date exercises, lecture slides and reading.
The Chinese Navy
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Author : Institute for National Strategic Studies
language : en
Publisher: Government Printing Office
Release Date : 2011-12-27
The Chinese Navy written by Institute for National Strategic Studies and has been published by Government Printing Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-27 with History categories.
Tells the story of the growing Chinese Navy - The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) - and its expanding capabilities, evolving roles and military implications for the USA. Divided into four thematic sections, this special collection of essays surveys and analyzes the most important aspects of China's navel modernization.
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-05-28
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-28 with Political Science categories.
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Strategic Theory For The 21st Century The Little Book On Big Strategy
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Author : Harry R. Yarger
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2006
Strategic Theory For The 21st Century The Little Book On Big Strategy written by Harry R. Yarger and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Military doctrine categories.
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1959-02
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1959-02 with categories.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.