Notes On Economic Time Series Analysis System Theoretic Perspectives
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Notes On Economic Time Series Analysis System Theoretic Perspectives
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Author : Masanao Aoki
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Notes On Economic Time Series Analysis System Theoretic Perspectives written by Masanao Aoki and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of what I deem to be important but not readily available, or accessible to economists. For this reason I have excluded from the notes many results on various estimation methods or their statistical properties because they are amply discussed in many standard texts on time series or on statistics.
Dynamics Of Macrosystems
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Author : Jean-P. Aubin
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-14
Dynamics Of Macrosystems written by Jean-P. Aubin and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Input Output Modeling
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Author : Anatoli Smyshlyaev
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-11
Input Output Modeling written by Anatoli Smyshlyaev and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Input-output modeling has, through the years, provided a consistent and unifying focus for IIASA's economic research. Scientists working in the Institute, first in the economic modeling task of the System and Decision Sciences area and later within the Economic Structural Change project, have cooperated extensively with colleagues throughout the world in advancing and contributing to input-output work. Perhaps the most notable aspect of these efforts has been the joint work with the INFORUM Project to develop linked systems of national models. Experience gained from the INFORUM-IIASA studies has been of great benefit to other members of the I/O community, but this is by no means the end of the story. Contributors not connected with INFORUM have also brought their own very valuable insights and knowledge to bear on the subject, and input-output modeling has moved progressively away from being a purely academic specialization. A number of the methods developed have direct application to economic analysis and policy formulation, and I/O techniques have achieved widespread use in both governmental and commercial environments. This volume presents the results of the fifth in a series of meetings organized by IIASA to promote methodological advances in the subject and to draw on a pool of I/O expertise so as to further the aims of the Institute's in-house economic research.
Empirical Modeling Of Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Empirical Modeling Of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Estimation Of Simultaneous Equation Models With Error Components Structure
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Author : Jayalakshmi Krishnakumar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Estimation Of Simultaneous Equation Models With Error Components Structure written by Jayalakshmi Krishnakumar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Economists can rarely perform controlled experiments to generate data. Existing information in the form of real-life observations simply has to be utilized in the best possible way. Given this, it is advantageous to make use of the increasing availability and accessibility of combinations of time-series and cross-sectional data in the estimation of economic models. But such data call for a new methodology of estimation and hence for the development of new econometric models. This book proposes one such new model which introduces error components in a system of simultaneous equations to take into account the temporal and cross-sectional heterogeneity of panel data. After a substantial survey of panel data models, the newly proposed model is presented in detail and indirect estimations, full information and limited information estimations, and estimations with and without the assumption of normal distribution errors. These estimation methods are then applied using a computer to estimate a model of residential electricity demand using data on American households. The results are analysed both from an economic and from a statistical point of view.
Combining Fuzzy Imprecision With Probabilistic Uncertainty In Decision Making
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Author : Mario Fedrizzi
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Combining Fuzzy Imprecision With Probabilistic Uncertainty In Decision Making written by Mario Fedrizzi and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
In the literature of decision analysis it is traditional to rely on the tools provided by probability theory to deal with problems in which uncertainty plays a substantive role. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that uncertainty is a mul tifaceted concept in which some of the important facets do not lend themselves to analysis by probability-based methods. One such facet is that of fuzzy imprecision, which is associated with the use of fuzzy predicates exemplified by small, large, fast, near, likely, etc. To be more specific, consider a proposition such as "It is very unlikely that the price of oil will decline sharply in the near future," in which the italicized words play the role of fuzzy predicates. The question is: How can one express the mean ing of this proposition through the use of probability-based methods? If this cannot be done effectively in a probabilistic framework, then how can one employ the information provided by the proposition in question to bear on a decision relating to an investment in a company engaged in exploration and marketing of oil? As another example, consider a collection of rules of the form "If X is Ai then Y is B,," j = 1, . . . , n, in which X and Yare real-valued variables and Ai and Bi are fuzzy numbers exemplified by small, large, not very small, close to 5, etc.
Arbitrage Pricing Of Contingent Claims
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Author : Sigrid Müller
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-13
Arbitrage Pricing Of Contingent Claims written by Sigrid Müller and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-13 with Law categories.
Simplicial Algorithms On The Simplotope
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Author : Timothy M. Doup
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Simplicial Algorithms On The Simplotope written by Timothy M. Doup and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
1.1. Introduction Solving systems of nonlinear equations has since long been of great interest to researchers in the field of economics, mathematics, en gineering, and many other professions. Many problems such as finding an equilibrium, a zero point, or a fixed point, can be formulated as the problem of finding a solution to a system of nonlinear equations. There are many methods to solve the nonlinear system such as Newton's method, the homotopy method, and the simplicial method. In this monograph we mainly consider the simplicial method. Traditionally, the zero point and fixed point problem have been solved by iterative methods such as Newton's method and modifications thereof. Among the difficulties which may cause an iterative method to perform inefficiently or even fail are: the lack of good starting points, slow convergence, and the lack of smoothness of the underlying function. These difficulties have been partly overcome by the introduction of homo topy methods.
Bounded Rational Behavior In Experimental Games And Markets
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Author : Reinhard Tietz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Bounded Rational Behavior In Experimental Games And Markets written by Reinhard Tietz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The book reports on recent experimental research on expectations and decision making in bargaining, markets, auctions, or coalition formation situations. The investi- gated topics deliver building stones for a bounded rational theory as an approach to explain behavior and interpersonal interactions in economic and social relationships.
A Static Microeconomic Model Of Pure Competition
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Author : Christoph Klein
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
A Static Microeconomic Model Of Pure Competition written by Christoph Klein and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This book studies a large economy. It deals with a static microeconomic model of an exchange market with pure competition. Instead of the sigma-additive theory, the finitely additive theory, the general Jordan content and the general Riemann integration are used respectively. By a specialized probability model, the author obtains a precise interpretation strictly based on microeconomic methods of measurement. In particular, the meaning of an agent and of a coalition is explained and the Core-Walras equivalence is deduced. The author elaborates an elementary representation by broken continuous functions and the classical Riemann integral. A conjecture concerning the reduction of the dynamical case onto generalized differential equations is added.