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Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators

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Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators

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Author : Mr.Marco Marini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-18

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators written by Mr.Marco Marini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-18 with Business & Economics categories.

Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or “nowcast”) low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators

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Author : Mr.Marco Marini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-23

A Three Frequency Dynamic Factor Model For Nowcasting Canadian Provincial Gdp Growth

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Author : Tony Chernis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017

A Three Frequency Dynamic Factor Model For Nowcasting Canadian Provincial Gdp Growth written by Tony Chernis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Econometric models categories.

"This paper estimates a three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). This necessitates a mixed-frequency approach that can process timely monthly data, the quarterly national accounts and the annual target variable. The model is estimated on a wide set of provincial, national and international data. We assess the extent to which these indicators can be used to nowcast annual provincial GDP in a pseudo real-time setting and construct indicators of unobserved monthly GDP for each province that can be used to assess the state of regional economies. The monthly activity indicators fit the data well in-sample, are able to track business-cycle turning points across the provinces, and showcase the significant regional heterogeneity that characterizes a large diverse country like Canada. They also provide more timely indications of business-cycle turning points and are able to pick up shorter periods of economic contraction that would not be observed in the annual average. In a pseudo real-time exercise, we find the model outperforms simple benchmarks and is competitive with more sophisticated mixed-frequency approaches such as MIDAS models"--Abstract, p. ii.

Overcoming Data Sparsity A Machine Learning Approach To Track The Real Time Impact Of Covid 19 In Sub Saharan Africa

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Author : Karim Barhoumi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-05-06

Overcoming Data Sparsity A Machine Learning Approach To Track The Real Time Impact Of Covid 19 In Sub Saharan Africa written by Karim Barhoumi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-06 with Business & Economics categories.

The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.

Imf Research Bulletin June 2016

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-06-17

Imf Research Bulletin June 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.

In the June 2016 issue of IMF Research Bulletin, Eugenio Cerutti interviews Lars E.O. Svensson. Lars, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, was a Visiting Scholar at the IMF. In the interview, he discusses monetary policy, financial stability, and life at the IMF. The Bulletin also features a listing of recent Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and key IMF publications. The table of contents from the latest issue of IMF Economic Review is also included.

The Changing Wealth Of Nations 2021

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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-12-18

The Changing Wealth Of Nations 2021 written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-18 with Science categories.

It is now clear that a narrow focus on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is insufficient to achieve humanity's aspirations for sustainable prosperity. Well-functioning ecosystems and educated populations are requisites for sustainable well-being. These and other too-often-neglected ingredients of national wealth must be addressed if the development path is to be sustainable. 'The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021: Managing Assets for the Future' provides the most comprehensive accounting of the wealth of nations, an in-depth analysis of the evolution of wealth, and pathways to build wealth for the future. This report--and the accompanying global database--firmly establishes comprehensive wealth as a measure of sustainability and a key component of country analytics. It expands the coverage of wealth accounts and improves our understanding of the quality of all assets, notably, natural capital. Wealth--the stock of produced, natural, and human capital--is measured as the sum of assets that yield a stream of benefits over time. Changes in the wealth of nations matter because they reflect the change in countries' assets that underpin future income. Countries regularly track GDP as an indicator of their economic progress, but not wealth, and national wealth has a more direct and long-term impact on people's lives. This report provides a new set of tools and analysis to help policy makers navigate risks and to guide collective action. Wealth accounts can be applied in macroeconomic analysis to areas of major policy concern such as climate change and natural resource management. This report can be used to look beyond GDP, to gauge nations' economic well-being, and to promote sustainable prosperity.

Data Science For Economics And Finance

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Author : Sergio Consoli
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021

Data Science For Economics And Finance written by Sergio Consoli and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Application software categories.

This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Handbook On Constructing Composite Indicators Methodology And User Guide

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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2008-08-22

Handbook On Constructing Composite Indicators Methodology And User Guide written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-22 with categories.

A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.

South Asia Economic Focus

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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021

South Asia Economic Focus written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Business & Economics categories.

South Asia region’s economies are beginning to recover, though unevenly: economic activity in industry and export sectors have recovered to pre-COVID levels but some labor-intensive services sectors and tourism have not. Inequality has worsened on many dimensions. The process of vaccinating South Asia’s population is underway, with India taking a leading role in production. The socioeconomic benefits of vaccinating most South Asians as soon as possible outweighs the cost by multiple times, and thus justifies having public sector financing. Cracks in the primary health care system became evident since the pandemic began, and the vaccine rollout is likely to have other additional challenges such as delays in production, bottlenecks in supply chain logistics and vaccine hesitancy from some groups (which could delay the process of herd immunity). There are also tradeoffs in the priorities that should be established in deciding who gets the vaccine first.

Empirical Macroeconomics And Statistical Uncertainty

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Author : Mateusz Pipień
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-08-06

Empirical Macroeconomics And Statistical Uncertainty written by Mateusz Pipień and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book addresses one of the most important research activities in empirical macroeconomics. It provides a course of advanced but intuitive methods and tools enabling the spatial and temporal disaggregation of basic macroeconomic variables and the assessment of the statistical uncertainty of the outcomes of disaggregation. The empirical analysis focuses mainly on GDP and its growth in the context of Poland. However, all of the methods discussed can be easily applied to other countries. The approach used in the book views spatial and temporal disaggregation as a special case of the estimation of missing observations (a topic on missing data analysis). The book presents an econometric course of models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The main advantage of using the SURE specification is to tackle the presented research problem so that it allows for the heterogeneity of the parameters describing relations between macroeconomic indicators. The book contains model specification, as well as descriptions of stochastic assumptions and resulting procedures of estimation and testing. The method also addresses uncertainty in the estimates produced. All of the necessary tests and assumptions are presented in detail. The results are designed to serve as a source of invaluable information making regional analyses more convenient and – more importantly – comparable. It will create a solid basis for making conclusions and recommendations concerning regional economic policy in Poland, particularly regarding the assessment of the economic situation. This is essential reading for academics, researchers, and economists with regional analysis as their field of expertise, as well as central bankers and policymakers.

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators

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