Nowcasting Business Cycle Dating And The Interpretation Of New Information When Real Time Data Are Available
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Nowcasting Business Cycle Dating And The Interpretation Of New Information When Real Time Data Are Available
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Nowcasting Business Cycle Dating And The Interpretation Of New Information When Real Time Data Are Available written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business cycles categories.
A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with 'conventional' models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. It is argued that conventional models are misspecified and misinterpret news. However, neither diagnostic tests applied to the conventional models nor typical impulse response analysis will be able to expose these deficiencies clearly. This is demonstrated through an analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1. However, estimated real time models considerably improve out-of-sample forecasting performance, provide more accurate 'nowcasts' of the current state of the macroeconomy and provide more timely indicators of the business cycle. The point is illustrated through an analysis of the US recessions of 1990q3--1991q2 and 2001q--2001q4.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2011-06-29
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Nowcasting The Business Cycle
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Author : James Picerno
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-04
Nowcasting The Business Cycle written by James Picerno and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: OUP USA
Release Date : 2011-07-08
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by OUP USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Dating New Zealand Business Cycles
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Author : Kunhong Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Dating New Zealand Business Cycles written by Kunhong Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business cycles categories.
Dynamic Factor Models
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2016-01-08
Dynamic Factor Models written by and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Pacific Rim Business Cycle Analysis
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Author : Viv B. Hall
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
Pacific Rim Business Cycle Analysis written by Viv B. Hall and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business cycles categories.
Handbook Of Us Consumer Economics
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Author : Andrew Haughwout
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2019-08-12
Handbook Of Us Consumer Economics written by Andrew Haughwout and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Handbook of U.S. Consumer Economics presents a deep understanding on key, current topics and a primer on the landscape of contemporary research on the U.S. consumer. This volume reveals new insights into household decision-making on consumption and saving, borrowing and investing, portfolio allocation, demand of professional advice, and retirement choices. Nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product is devoted to consumption, making an understanding of the consumer a first order issue in macroeconomics. After all, understanding how households played an important role in the boom and bust cycle that led to the financial crisis and recent great recession is a key metric. Introduces household finance by examining consumption and borrowing choices Tackles macro-problems by observing new, original micro-data Looks into the future of consumer spending by using data, not questionnaires
Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Policies
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Author : Edouard Challe
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2023-09-19
Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Policies written by Edouard Challe and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-19 with Business & Economics categories.
The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Guidelines On Producing Leading Composite And Sentiment Indicators
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Author : United Nations
language : en
Publisher: United Nations
Release Date : 2019-12-18
Guidelines On Producing Leading Composite And Sentiment Indicators written by United Nations and has been published by United Nations this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-18 with Political Science categories.
Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.