Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-03-28
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-16
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-16 with Social Science categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Mortality categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-10-08
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-08 with Social Science categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries
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Author : E. Tabeau
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001-02-28
Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-28
Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Federico Girosi
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2008-08-24
Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-24 with Social Science categories.
Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Mortality And The Provision Of Retirement Income
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2023-02-02
Mortality And The Provision Of Retirement Income written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-02 with categories.
This report analyses the development of mortality assumptions to build mortality tables to better protect retirement income provision. Mortality assumptions are necessary to ensure the sustainability of lifetime incomes.
The Demographic Dividend
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Author : David Bloom
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2003-02-13
The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-02-13 with Social Science categories.
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Aging And The Macroeconomy
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2013-01-10
Aging And The Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-10 with Social Science categories.
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.