Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Svetlana Boyarchenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-26
Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Svetlana Boyarchenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Here, two highly experienced authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems. The monograph will teach the reader to apply the technique to many problems in economics and finance, including new ones. From the technical point of view, the method can be characterized as option pricing via the Wiener-Hopf factorization.
Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : J.K. Sengupta
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty written by J.K. Sengupta and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The theory of optimal decisions in a stochastic environment has seen many new developments in recent years. The implications of such theory for empirical and policy applications are several. This book attempts to analyze some of the impor tant applied aspects of this theory and its recent developments. The stochastic environment is considered here in specific form, e.g., (a) linear programs (LP) with parameters subject to a probabilistic mechanism, (b) decision models with risk aversion, (c) resource allocation in a team, and (d) national economic planning. The book attempts to provide new research insights into several areas, e.g., (a) mixed strategy solutions and econometric tests of hypotheses of LP models, (b) the dual problems of efficient estimation and optimal regulation, (c) input-output planning under imperfect competition, and (d) linear programs viewed as constrained statistical games. Methods of optimal decision rules developed here for quadratic and linear decision problems are applicable in three broad areas: (a) applied economic models in resource allocation, planning and team decision, (b) operations research models in management decisions involving portfolio analysis and stochastic programming, and (c) systems science models in stochastic control and adaptive behavior. Some results reported here have been published in professional journals be-. fore, and I would like to thank the following journals in particular: Inter national Journal of Systems Science, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applica tions and Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty In Electricity Markets
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Author : Antonio J. Conejo
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-09-08
Decision Making Under Uncertainty In Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
Optimal Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Giorgio Consigli
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-10-17
Optimal Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Giorgio Consigli and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The scope of this volume is primarily to analyze from different methodological perspectives similar valuation and optimization problems arising in financial applications, aimed at facilitating a theoretical and computational integration between methods largely regarded as alternatives. Increasingly in recent years, financial management problems such as strategic asset allocation, asset-liability management, as well as asset pricing problems, have been presented in the literature adopting formulation and solution approaches rooted in stochastic programming, robust optimization, stochastic dynamic programming (including approximate SDP) methods, as well as policy rule optimization, heuristic approaches and others. The aim of the volume is to facilitate the comprehension of the modeling and methodological potentials of those methods, thus their common assumptions and peculiarities, relying on similar financial problems. The volume will address different valuation problems common in finance related to: asset pricing, optimal portfolio management, risk measurement, risk control and asset-liability management. The volume features chapters of theoretical and practical relevance clarifying recent advances in the associated applied field from different standpoints, relying on similar valuation problems and, as mentioned, facilitating a mutual and beneficial methodological and theoretical knowledge transfer. The distinctive aspects of the volume can be summarized as follows: Strong benchmarking philosophy, with contributors explicitly asked to underline current limits and desirable developments in their areas. Theoretical contributions, aimed at advancing the state-of-the-art in the given domain with a clear potential for applications The inclusion of an algorithmic-computational discussion of issues arising on similar valuation problems across different methods. Variety of applications: rarely is it possible within a single volume to consider and analyze different, and possibly competing, alternative optimization techniques applied to well-identified financial valuation problems. Clear definition of the current state-of-the-art in each methodological and applied area to facilitate future research directions.
Risk Choice And Uncertainty
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Author : George G. Szpiro
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2020-01-07
Risk Choice And Uncertainty written by George G. Szpiro and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-01-07 with Business & Economics categories.
At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Ian Jordaan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-04-07
Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-07 with Technology & Engineering categories.
To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.
Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Jatikumar Sengupta
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1981
Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Jatikumar Sengupta and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Decision-making categories.
Introduction To Applied Optimization
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Author : Urmila Diwekar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Introduction To Applied Optimization written by Urmila Diwekar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Mathematics categories.
Provides well-written self-contained chapters, including problem sets and exercises, making it ideal for the classroom setting; Introduces applied optimization to the hazardous waste blending problem; Explores linear programming, nonlinear programming, discrete optimization, global optimization, optimization under uncertainty, multi-objective optimization, optimal control and stochastic optimal control; Includes an extensive bibliography at the end of each chapter and an index; GAMS files of case studies for Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7 are linked to http://www.springer.com/math/book/978-0-387-76634-8; Solutions manual available upon adoptions. Introduction to Applied Optimization is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and will benefit scientists from diverse areas, including engineers.
Flexible Ac Transmission Systems Modelling And Control
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Author : Xiao-Ping Zhang
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-02-24
Flexible Ac Transmission Systems Modelling And Control written by Xiao-Ping Zhang and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-24 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The extended and revised second edition of this successful monograph presents advanced modeling, analysis and control techniques of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS). The book covers comprehensively a range of power-system control problems: from steady-state voltage and power flow control, to voltage and reactive power control, to voltage stability control, to small signal stability control using FACTS controllers. In the six years since the first edition of the book has been published research on the FACTS has continued to flourish while renewable energy has developed into a mature and booming global green business. The second edition reflects the new developments in converter configuration, smart grid technologies, super power grid developments worldwide, new approaches for FACTS control design, new controllers for distribution system control, and power electronic controllers in wind generation operation and control. The latest trends of VSC-HVDC with multilevel architecture have been included and four completely new chapters have been added devoted to Multi-Agent Systems for Coordinated Control of FACTS-devices, Power System Stability Control using FACTS with Multiple Operating Points, Control of a Looping Device in a Distribution System, and Power Electronic Control for Wind Generation.