Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Author : Gabriel Di Bella
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-05
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Author : Gabriel Di Bella
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-05
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Growth Expectations Undue Optimism And Short Run Fluctuations
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Author : Zeno Enders
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Growth Expectations Undue Optimism And Short Run Fluctuations written by Zeno Enders and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a negative nowcast error, but simultaneously a positive short-run output response.
On The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Over Optimism
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Author : Paul Beaudry
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-30
On The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Over Optimism written by Paul Beaudry and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Capital Market Liberalization And Development
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Author : José Antonio Ocampo
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2008-05-01
Capital Market Liberalization And Development written by José Antonio Ocampo and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Capital market liberalization has been a key battle in the debate on globalization for much of the previous two decades. Many developing countries, often at the behest of international financial institutions such as the IMF, opened their capital accounts and liberalized their domestic financial markets as part of the wave of liberalization that characterized the 1980s and 1990s and in doing so exposed their economies to increased risk and volatility. Now with even the IMF acknowledging the risks inherent in capital market liberalization, the central intellectual battle over the effects of capital market liberalization has for the most part ended. Though this new understanding of the consequences of capital market liberalization is reshaping many policy discussions among academics and international institutions, ideological and vested interests remain. Critical policy debates also remain, such as how much government should intervene and what tools are available. Although capital market liberalization might not produce the promised benefits, many economists and policymakers still worry about the costs of intervention. Do these costs exceed the benefits? What are the best kinds of interventions, under what circumstances? To answer these questions, we have to understand why capital market liberalization has failed to enhance growth, why it has resulted in greater instability, why the poor appear to have borne the greatest burden, and why the advocates of capital market liberalization were so wrong. Bringing together some of the leading researchers and practitioners in the field, this volume provides an analysis of both the risks associated with capital market liberalization and the alternative policy options available to enhance macroeconomic management.
Stress Concepts Cognition Emotion And Behavior
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Author : George Fink
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2016-03-10
Stress Concepts Cognition Emotion And Behavior written by George Fink and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-10 with Science categories.
Stress: Concepts, Cognition, Emotion, and Behavior: Handbook in Stress Series, Volume 1, examines stress and its management in the workplace and is targeted at scientific and clinical researchers in biomedicine, psychology, and some aspects of the social sciences. The audience is appropriate faculty and graduate and undergraduate students interested in stress and its consequences. The format allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series. This makes the publication much more affordable than the previously published four volume Encyclopedia of Stress (Elsevier 2007) in which stress subsections were arranged alphabetically and therefore required purchase of the whole work. This feature will be of special significance for individual scientists and clinicians, as well as laboratories. In this first volume of the series, the primary focus will be on general stress concepts as well as the areas of cognition, emotion, and behavior. Offers chapters with impressive scope, covering topics including the interactions between stress, cognition, emotion and behaviour Features articles carefully selected by eminent stress researchers and prepared by contributors representing outstanding scholarship in the field Includes rich illustrations with explanatory figures and tables Includes boxed call out sections that serve to explain key concepts and methods Allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series
Invest Like A Fox Not Like A Hedgehog
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Author : Robert C. Carlson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2007-06-15
Invest Like A Fox Not Like A Hedgehog written by Robert C. Carlson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Proven techniques for leading-instead of following-fast-changing markets Investors, no matter what strategy they are using, can be placed into two categories. Single-minded, inflexible hedgehogs lock into one strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. Dynamic, adaptable foxes, on the other hand, are alert for changes, learn from experience, embrace new ideas, and make the most of new trends and technologies. The key lies in being flexible and realizing that markets are dynamic. Invest Like a Fox . . . Not Like a Hedgehog shows investors how being a hedgehog can reduce returns while increasing the risk of a portfolio, and how acquiring the cunning and adaptability of the fox will improve returns while reducing risk. It reveals the shortcomings of popular but hedgehog-like investment strategies and shows how a fox-like investor adjusts to new market realities. Readers learn how to use the renowned Bayesian Theory of Probability and other guideposts from outside the world of finance to adjust their strategies and react to new information.
Learned Optimism
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Author : Martin Seligman
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2018-04-19
Learned Optimism written by Martin Seligman and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-19 with Psychology categories.
From the bestselling author of Authentic Happiness Known as the father of the science of positive psychology, Martin E.P. Seligman draws on more than twenty years of clinical research to demonstrate how optimism enhances the quality of life, and how anyone can learn to practice it. Offering many simple techniques, Dr. Seligman explains how to break an 'I give up' habit, develop a more constructive explanatory style for interpreting your behaviour, and experience the benefits of a more positive interior dialogue. These skills can help break up depression, boost your immune system, better develop your potential, and make you happier. With generous additional advice on how to encourage optimistic behaviour at school, at work and in children, Learned Optimism is both profound and practical, making it highly valuable for every phase of life.
Post Walrasian Macroeconomics
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Author : David Colander
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2006-07-17
Post Walrasian Macroeconomics written by David Colander and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.
Economics For The Ib Diploma With Cd Rom
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Author : Ellie Tragakes
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-11-03
Economics For The Ib Diploma With Cd Rom written by Ellie Tragakes and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Arranged in four sections, provides review exercises and past examination questions for topics in microeconomics, macroeconomics, interantional economics, and development economics.