Optimization Based Models For Measuring And Hedging Risk In Fixed Income Markets

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Optimization Based Models For Measuring And Hedging Risk In Fixed Income Markets

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Author : Johan Hagenbjörk
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2019-12-09

Optimization Based Models For Measuring And Hedging Risk In Fixed Income Markets written by Johan Hagenbjörk and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-09 with categories.

The global fixed income market is an enormous financial market whose value by far exceeds that of the public stock markets. The interbank market consists of interest rate derivatives, whose primary purpose is to manage interest rate risk. The credit market primarily consists of the bond market, which links investors to companies, institutions, and governments with borrowing needs. This dissertation takes an optimization perspective upon modeling both these areas of the fixed-income market. Legislators on the national markets require financial actors to value their financial assets in accordance with market prices. Thus, prices of many assets, which are not publicly traded, must be determined mathematically. The financial quantities needed for pricing are not directly observable but must be measured through solving inverse optimization problems. These measurements are based on the available market prices, which are observed with various degrees of measurement noise. For the interbank market, the relevant financial quantities consist of term structures of interest rates, which are curves displaying the market rates for different maturities. For the bond market, credit risk is an additional factor that can be modeled through default intensity curves and term structures of recovery rates in case of default. By formulating suitable optimization models, the different underlying financial quantities can be measured in accordance with observable market prices, while conditions for economic realism are imposed. Measuring and managing risk is closely connected to the measurement of the underlying financial quantities. Through a data-driven method, we can show that six systematic risk factors can be used to explain almost all variance in the interest rate curves. By modeling the dynamics of these six risk factors, possible outcomes can be simulated in the form of term structure scenarios. For short-term simulation horizons, this results in a representation of the portfolio value distribution that is consistent with the realized outcomes from historically observed term structures. This enables more accurate measurements of interest rate risk, where our proposed method exhibits both lower risk and lower pricing errors compared to traditional models. We propose a method for decomposing changes in portfolio values for an arbitrary portfolio into the risk factors that affect the value of each instrument. By demonstrating the method for the six systematic risk factors identified for the interbank market, we show that almost all changes in portfolio value and portfolio variance can be attributed to these risk factors. Additional risk factors and approximation errors are gathered into two terms, which can be studied to ensure the quality of the performance attribution, and possibly improve it. To eliminate undesired risk within trading books, banks use hedging. Traditional methods do not take transaction costs into account. We, therefore, propose a method for managing the risks in the interbank market through a stochastic optimization model that considers transaction costs. This method is based on a scenario approximation of the optimization problem where the six systematic risk factors are simulated, and the portfolio variance is weighted against the transaction costs. This results in a method that is preferred over the traditional methods for all risk-averse investors. For the credit market, we use data from the bond market in combination with the interbank market to make accurate measurements of the financial quantities. We address the notoriously difficult problem of separating default risk from recovery risk. In addition to the previous identified six systematic risk factors for risk-free interests, we identify four risk factors that explain almost all variance in default intensities, while a single risk factor seems sufficient to model the recovery risk. Overall, this is a higher number of risk factors than is usually found in the literature. Through a simple model, we can measure the variance in bond prices in terms of these systematic risk factors, and through performance attribution, we relate these values to the empirically realized variances from the quoted bond prices. De globala ränte- och kreditmarknaderna är enorma finansiella marknader vars sammanlagda värden vida överstiger de publika aktiemarknadernas. Räntemarknaden består av räntederivat vars främsta användningsområde är hantering av ränterisker. Kreditmarknaden utgörs i första hand av obligationsmarknaden som syftar till att förmedla pengar från investerare till företag, institutioner och stater med upplåningsbehov. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att utifrån ett optimeringsperspektiv modellera både ränte- och obligationsmarknaden. Lagstiftarna på de nationella marknaderna kräver att de finansiella aktörerna värderar sina finansiella tillgångar i enlighet med marknadspriser. Därmed måste priserna på många instrument, som inte handlas publikt, beräknas matematiskt. De finansiella storheter som krävs för denna prissättning är inte direkt observerbara, utan måste mätas genom att lösa inversa optimeringsproblem. Dessa mätningar görs utifrån tillgängliga marknadspriser, som observeras med varierande grad av mätbrus. För räntemarknaden utgörs de relevanta finansiella storheterna av räntekurvor som åskådliggör marknadsräntorna för olika löptider. För obligationsmarknaden utgör kreditrisken en ytterligare faktor som modelleras via fallissemangsintensitetskurvor och kurvor kopplade till förväntat återvunnet kapital vid eventuellt fallissemang. Genom att formulera lämpliga optimeringsmodeller kan de olika underliggande finansiella storheterna mätas i enlighet med observerbara marknadspriser samtidigt som ekonomisk realism eftersträvas. Mätning och hantering av risker är nära kopplat till mätningen av de underliggande finansiella storheterna. Genom en datadriven metod kan vi visa att sex systematiska riskfaktorer kan användas för att förklara nästan all varians i räntekurvorna. Genom att modellera dynamiken i dessa sex riskfaktorer kan tänkbara utfall för räntekurvor simuleras. För kortsiktiga simuleringshorisonter resulterar detta i en representation av fördelningen av portföljvärden som väl överensstämmer med de realiserade utfallen från historiskt observerade räntekurvor. Detta möjliggör noggrannare mätningar av ränterisk där vår föreslagna metod uppvisar såväl lägre risk som mindre prissättningsfel jämfört med traditionella modeller. Vi föreslår en metod för att dekomponera portföljutvecklingen för en godtycklig portfölj till de riskfaktorer som påverkar värdet för respektive instrument. Genom att demonstrera metoden för de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna som identifierats för räntemarknaden visar vi att nästan all portföljutveckling och portföljvarians kan härledas till dessa riskfaktorer. Övriga riskfaktorer och approximationsfel samlas i två termer, vilka kan användas för att säkerställa och eventuellt förbättra kvaliteten i prestationshärledningen. För att eliminera oönskad risk i sina tradingböcker använder banker sig av hedging. Traditionella metoder tar ingen hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Vi föreslår därför en metod för att hantera riskerna på räntemarknaden genom en stokastisk optimeringsmodell som också tar hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Denna metod bygger på en scenarioapproximation av optimeringsproblemet där de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna simuleras och portföljvariansen vägs mot transaktionskostnaderna. Detta resulterar i en metod som, för alla riskaverta investerare, är att föredra framför de traditionella metoderna. På kreditmarknaden använder vi data från obligationsmarknaden i kombination räntemarknaden för att göra noggranna mätningar av de finansiella storheterna. Vi angriper det erkänt svåra problemet att separera fallissemangsrisk från återvinningsrisk. Förutom de tidigare sex systematiska riskfaktorerna för riskfri ränta, identifierar vi fyra riskfaktorer som förklarar nästan all varians i fallissemangsintensiteter, medan en enda riskfaktor tycks räcka för att modellera återvinningsrisken. Sammanlagt är detta ett större antal riskfaktorer än vad som brukar användas i litteraturen. Via en enkel modell kan vi mäta variansen i obligationspriser i termer av dessa systematiska riskfaktorer och genom prestationshärledningen relatera dessa värden till de empiriskt realiserade varianserna från kvoterade obligationspriser.

Blackrock S Guide To Fixed Income Risk Management

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Author : BlackRock, Inc.
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2023-10-31

Blackrock S Guide To Fixed Income Risk Management written by BlackRock, Inc. and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.

An irreplaceable roadmap to modern risk management from renowned experts on the subject Edited by a co-founder and the former Chief Risk Officer of BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager—BlackRock’s Guide to Fixed-Income Risk Management delivers an insightful blueprint to the implementation of a comprehensive investment risk management framework for buy-side firms. Leveraging the unprecedented academic and professional experience of current and former senior leaders in BlackRock’s risk and portfolio management functions, as well as trading, financial modeling, and analytics experts, the book serves a practitioner’s guide to investment risk management, leveraging BlackRock’s risk management framework. The included chapters combine to provide chief investment officers, risk managers, portfolio managers, researchers, and compliance professionals an approach to investment risk management well-suited for today's and tomorrow's markets. The book also presents: Critical elements that underpin a strong risk management program and culture Fixed income risk management concepts and theories that can be applied to other asset classes Lessons learned from financial crises and the COVID-19 Pandemic Ideal for undergraduate students and students and scholars of business, finance, and risk management, BlackRock’s Guide to Fixed-Income Risk Management is a one-of-a-kind combination of modern theory with proven, practical risk management strategies.

Investment Risk And Uncertainty

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Author : Steven P. Greiner
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-03-14

Investment Risk And Uncertainty written by Steven P. Greiner and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.

Valuable insights on the major methods used in today's asset and risk management arena Risk management has moved to the forefront of asset management since the credit crisis. However, most coverage of this subject is overly complicated, misunderstood, and extremely hard to apply. That's why Steven Greiner—a financial professional with over twenty years of quantitative and modeling experience—has written Investment Risk and Uncertainty. With this book, he skillfully reduces the complexity of risk management methodologies applied across many asset classes through practical examples of when to use what. Along the way, Greiner explores how particular methods can lower risk and mitigate losses. He also discusses how to stress test your portfolio and remove the exposure to regular risks and those from "Black Swan" events. More than just an explanation of specific risk issues, this reliable resource provides practical "off-the-shelf" applications that will allow the intelligent investor to understand their risks, their sources, and how to hedge those risks. Covers modern methods applied in risk management for many different asset classes Details the risk measurements of truly multi-asset class portfolios, while bridging the gap for managers in various disciplines—from equity and fixed income investors to currency and commodity investors Examines risk management algorithms for multi-asset class managers as well as risk managers, addressing new compliance issues and how to meet them The theory of risk management is hardly ever spelled out in practical applications that portfolio managers, pension fund advisors, and consultants can make use of. This book fills that void and will put you in a better position to confidently face the investment risks and uncertainties found in today's dynamic markets.

Portfolio Theory And Performance Analysis

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Author : Noel Amenc
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2005-01-21

Portfolio Theory And Performance Analysis written by Noel Amenc and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.

For many years asset management was considered to be a marginal activity, but today, it is central to the development of financial industry throughout the world. Asset management's transition from an "art and craft" to an industry has inevitably called integrated business models into question, favouring specialisation strategies based on cost optimisation and learning curve objectives. This book connects each of these major categories of techniques and practices to the unifying and seminal conceptual developments of modern portfolio theory. In these bear market times, performance evaluation of portfolio managers is of central focus. This book will be one of very few on the market and is by a respected member of the profession. Allows the professionals, whether managers or investors, to take a step back and clearly separate true innovations from mere improvements to well-known, existing techniques Puts into context the importance of innovations with regard to the fundamental portfolio management questions, which are the evolution of the investment management process, risk analysis and performance measurement Takes the explicit or implicit assumptions contained in the promoted tools into account and, by so doing, evaluate the inherent interpretative or practical limits

Risk Management Of Supply And Cash Flows In Supply Chains

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Author : Jian Li
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-09-15

Risk Management Of Supply And Cash Flows In Supply Chains written by Jian Li and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-15 with Business & Economics categories.

Risk management has become an essential issue in supply chain management, from the modeling of the decision maker's risk preference, and the studies on uncertain elements such as demand, supply, price, lead time, etc., to the consideration of more practical background including cash flow constraints, inventory financing and delayed cash payment. In this new volume, the authors provide a framework to study the interaction of various factors related to risk and their influence on supply chain management. The scope of areas covered includes operations management, decision analysis, and business administration. This book focuses on several key issues of risk management in supply chains. Specifically, an analysis framework is presented for studying the supplier selection problem and identifying the optimal sourcing strategy in a one-retailer two-suppliers supply chain with random yields. The optimal sourcing strategy of a retailer and the pricing strategies of two suppliers under an environment of supply disruption are investigated. Besides, the authors study the dynamic inventory control problems with cash flow constraints, financing decisions as well as delayed cash payment. In addition, originating from the annual international iron ore price negotiation, the authors model the bargaining process to deal with the risk of wholesale price in the game analysis context. Within the three perspectives of risk management in supply chains, the modeling of decision maker's risk preference has been extensively studied and many results have been obtained to guide the practice. However, the analysis on the other two kinds of topics is still in its infancy, and needs more efforts from academia. It is thus the ambition and innovation for this book to contribute on risk management in supply chains in the following ways: (1) characterizing the explicit sourcing strategy (i.e., single sourcing or dual sourcing) to deal with supply disruption risk; (2)introducing the concepts of financial risk measurement by incorporating cash flow constraints, inventory financing and delayed cash payment into inventory management models; and (3) providing insights for the iron ore price negotiation to help steel manufacturers handle the risk of price increase.

Fixed Income Quant

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Author : William Johnson
language : en
Publisher: HiTeX Press
Release Date : 2024-10-16

Fixed Income Quant written by William Johnson and has been published by HiTeX Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-16 with Business & Economics categories.

"Fixed Income Quant: Strategies for Modeling Bonds and Interest Rates" offers a comprehensive guide to the world of fixed income securities, blending theoretical insights with practical approaches to modeling and analysis. This book delves into the fundamental components of fixed income markets, providing readers with essential knowledge on bond pricing, interest rate structures, and yield curves. By mastering these foundational topics, investors and financial professionals gain the tools necessary to navigate the complex landscape of fixed income investments with confidence and precision. Through detailed exploration of risk and return, duration and convexity, and credit risk analysis, this book equips readers with a robust framework for managing and optimizing fixed income portfolios. Advanced topics such as interest rate models, fixed income derivatives, and algorithmic trading underscore the integration of quantitative methods and technology in modern financial strategies. With insights into global fixed income markets and machine learning applications, "Fixed Income Quant" serves as both a comprehensive reference and a forward-looking guide, empowering readers to achieve strategic financial goals in an ever-evolving market environment.

Pathwise Estimation And Inference For Diffusion Market Models

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Author : Nikolai Dokuchaev
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-03-26

Pathwise Estimation And Inference For Diffusion Market Models written by Nikolai Dokuchaev and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-26 with Mathematics categories.

Pathwise estimation and inference for diffusion market models discusses contemporary techniques for inferring, from options and bond prices, the market participants' aggregate view on important financial parameters such as implied volatility, discount rate, future interest rate, and their uncertainty thereof. The focus is on the pathwise inference methods that are applicable to a sole path of the observed prices and do not require the observation of an ensemble of such paths. This book is pitched at the level of senior undergraduate students undertaking research at honors year, and postgraduate candidates undertaking Master’s or PhD degree by research. From a research perspective, this book reaches out to academic researchers from backgrounds as diverse as mathematics and probability, econometrics and statistics, and computational mathematics and optimization whose interest lie in analysis and modelling of financial market data from a multi-disciplinary approach. Additionally, this book is also aimed at financial market practitioners participating in capital market facing businesses who seek to keep abreast with and draw inspiration from novel approaches in market data analysis. The first two chapters of the book contains introductory material on stochastic analysis and the classical diffusion stock market models. The remaining chapters discuss more special stock and bond market models and special methods of pathwise inference for market parameter for different models. The final chapter describes applications of numerical methods of inference of bond market parameters to forecasting of short rate. Nikolai Dokuchaev is an associate professor in Mathematics and Statistics at Curtin University. His research interests include mathematical and statistical finance, stochastic analysis, PDEs, control, and signal processing. Lin Yee Hin is a practitioner in the capital market facing industry. His research interests include econometrics, non-parametric regression, and scientific computing.

Handbook Of Asset And Liability Management

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Author : Alexandre Adam
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-03-11

Handbook Of Asset And Liability Management written by Alexandre Adam and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-03-11 with Business & Economics categories.

In the Handbook of Asset and Liability Management: From Models to Optimal Return Strategies, Alexandre Adam presents a comprehensive guide to Asset and Liability Management. Written from a quantitative perspective with economic explanations, this book will appeal to both mathematicians and non-mathematicians alike as it gives an operational view on the business. Well structured, this book includes essential information on Balance Sheet Items and Products Modeling, Tools for Asset and Liability Managers, as well as Optimal Returns Strategies. Explaining, in detail, all the written and unwritten rules of Asset Liability Management, using up-to-date models and the latest findings, the Handbook of Asset and Liability Management is an essential tool for Asset and Liability Managers both for the present day and the future.

Advanced Bond Portfolio Management

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Author : Frank J. Fabozzi
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-03-08

Advanced Bond Portfolio Management written by Frank J. Fabozzi and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.

In order to effectively employ portfolio strategies that can control interest rate risk and/or enhance returns, you must understand the forces that drive bond markets, as well as the valuation and risk management practices of these complex securities. In Advanced Bond Portfolio Management, Frank Fabozzi, Lionel Martellini, and Philippe Priaulet have brought together more than thirty experienced bond market professionals to help you do just that. Divided into six comprehensive parts, Advanced Bond Portfolio Management will guide you through the state-of-the-art techniques used in the analysis of bonds and bond portfolio management. Topics covered include: General background information on fixed-income markets and bond portfolio strategies The design of a strategy benchmark Various aspects of fixed-income modeling that will provide key ingredients in the implementation of an efficient portfolio and risk management process Interest rate risk and credit risk management Risk factors involved in the management of an international bond portfolio Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Advanced Bond Portfolio Management is a valuable resource for anyone involved or interested in this important industry.

Scalar And Vector Risk In The General Framework Of Portfolio Theory

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Author : Stanislaus Maier-Paape
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-09-01

Scalar And Vector Risk In The General Framework Of Portfolio Theory written by Stanislaus Maier-Paape and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-01 with Mathematics categories.

This book is the culmination of the authors’ industry-academic collaboration in the past several years. The investigation is largely motivated by bank balance sheet management problems. The main difference between a bank balance sheet management problem and a typical portfolio optimization problem is that the former involves multiple risks. The related theoretical investigation leads to a significant extension of the scope of portfolio theories. The book combines practitioners’ perspectives and mathematical rigor. For example, to guide the bank managers to trade off different Pareto efficient points, the topological structure of the Pareto efficient set is carefully analyzed. Moreover, on top of computing solutions, the authors focus the investigation on the qualitative properties of those solutions and their financial meanings. These relations, such as the role of duality, are most useful in helping bank managers to communicate their decisions to the different stakeholders. Finally, bank balance sheet management problems of varying levels of complexity are discussed to illustrate how to apply the central mathematical results. Although the primary motivation and application examples in this book are focused in the area of bank balance sheet management problems, the range of applications of the general portfolio theory is much wider. As a matter of fact, most financial problems involve multiple types of risks. Thus, the book is a good reference for financial practitioners in general and students who are interested in financial applications. This book can also serve as a nice example of a case study for applied mathematicians who are interested in engaging in industry-academic collaboration.