Perspectives On Warm Conveyor Belts Sensitivities To Ensemble Configuration And The Role For Forecast Error

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Perspectives On Warm Conveyor Belts Sensitivities To Ensemble Configuration And The Role For Forecast Error

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Author : Pickl, Moritz
language : en
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
Release Date : 2023-03-30

Perspectives On Warm Conveyor Belts Sensitivities To Ensemble Configuration And The Role For Forecast Error written by Pickl, Moritz and has been published by KIT Scientific Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-30 with Science categories.

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.

Representation Of Warm Conveyor Belts In Sub Seasonal Forecast Models And The Link To Atlantic European Weather Regimes

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Author : Wandel, Jan Lucas
language : en
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
Release Date : 2023-05-25

Representation Of Warm Conveyor Belts In Sub Seasonal Forecast Models And The Link To Atlantic European Weather Regimes written by Wandel, Jan Lucas and has been published by KIT Scientific Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-25 with Science categories.

This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.

Objective Identification And Climatology Of Mesoscale High Wind Features Within Extratropical Cyclones

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Author : Eisenstein, Lea Andrea
language : en
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
Release Date : 2024-10-01

Objective Identification And Climatology Of Mesoscale High Wind Features Within Extratropical Cyclones written by Eisenstein, Lea Andrea and has been published by KIT Scientific Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-01 with categories.

Strong winds accompanying extratropical cyclones are commonly associated with various mesoscale features. This work introduces RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based Mesoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective and flexible identification approach based on key surface characteristics to distinguish these features. RAMEFI is further applied to compile a climatology over Europe, offering a comprehensive analysis of feature frequency, distribution, and characteristics.

Verification Of Warm Conveyor Belt Ensemble Forecasts

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Author : Natalie Kuster
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

Verification Of Warm Conveyor Belt Ensemble Forecasts written by Natalie Kuster and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.