Phillips Curves Phillips Lines And The Unemplyment Costs Of Overheating
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Phillips Curves Phillips Lines And The Unemplyment Costs Of Overheating
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Author : Mr.Peter B. Clark
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-02-01
Phillips Curves Phillips Lines And The Unemplyment Costs Of Overheating written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.
Phillips Curves Phillips Lines And The Unemployment Costs Of Overheating
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Author : Peter Barton Clark
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Phillips Curves Phillips Lines And The Unemployment Costs Of Overheating written by Peter Barton Clark and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Economics categories.
Is The Phillips Curve Really A Curve Some Evidence For Canada The United Kingdom And The United States
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Author : Mr.Douglas Laxton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1996-10-01
Is The Phillips Curve Really A Curve Some Evidence For Canada The United Kingdom And The United States written by Mr.Douglas Laxton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.
Macroeconomics And The Real World Volume 2 Keynesian Economics Unemployment And Policy
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Author : Roger E. Backhouse
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2000-11-23
Macroeconomics And The Real World Volume 2 Keynesian Economics Unemployment And Policy written by Roger E. Backhouse and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Since the middle of twentieth century, economists have invested great resources into using statistical evidence to relate macroeconomic theories to the real world, and many new econometric techniques have been employed. In these two volumes, a distinguished group of economic theorists, econometricians, and economic methodologists examine how evidence has been used and how it should be used to understand the real world. Volume 1 focuses on the contribution of econometric techniques to understanding the macroeconomic world. It covers the use of evidence to understand the business cycle, the operation of monetary policy, and economic growth. A further section offers assessments of the overall impact of recent econometric techniques such as cointegration and unit roots. Volume 2 focuses on the labour market and economic policy, with sections covering the IS-LM model, the labour market, new Keynesian macroeconomics, and the use of macroeconomics in official documents (in both the USA and EU). These volumes will be valuable to advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and practitioners for their clear presentation of opposing perspectives on macroeconomics and how evidence should be used. The chapters are complemented by discussion sections revealing the perspectives of other contributors on the methodological issues raised.
What Is Keeping U S Core Inflation Low
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Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-07-05
What Is Keeping U S Core Inflation Low written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate Phillips curve and the bottom up approach give low root mean square errors. The latter, however, is more informative in tracing the effects of shocks and understanding the exact channels through which they affect aggregate inflation. Using scenario analysis—and given a relatively low sensitivity of core inflation to changes in slack, both at the aggregate Phillips curve and sub-components levels—we find that global pressures will likely keep core PCE inflation below 2 percent for the foreseeable future unless the dollar starts to depreciate markedly and the unemployment rate goes well below the natural rate. These results support the accommodative stance of monetary policy pursued thus far and, going forward, underscore the need for proceeding cautiously and very gradually in raising the federal funds rate.
World Economic Outlook
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-10-15
World Economic Outlook written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents an outlook for the world economy for 1997–98. With world output expected to expand by some 41⁄4 percent in both 1997 and 1998, the strongest pace in a decade, the global economy is enjoying the fourth episode of relatively rapid growth since the early 1970s. The expansion is underpinned by continued solid growth with low inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom; a strengthening recovery in Canada; a broadening of recovery across continental western Europe, notwithstanding persistent weakness in domestic demand in some of the largest countries.
Multimod Mark Iii
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Author : Mr.Hamid Faruqee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-05-21
Multimod Mark Iii written by Mr.Hamid Faruqee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-05-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations.
Imf Staff Papers
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-01-01
Imf Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Chilean pension reform of 1981, a shift from cm unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance. Positive growth effects allow, in principle, a Pareto-improving shift in pension financing. This paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the reform and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured reform effects on financial market developments, as well as the impact on total factor productivity. capital formation, and private saving. The empirical evidence is consistent with most but not all claims. In particular, the direct impact of the reform on saving was low, and initially even negative.
Japan
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-11-02
Japan written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-11-02 with Business & Economics categories.
A sustained decline in fertility rates underlies a rapid aging and decline of Japan's population. This will have profound social and economic implications. The paper illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. The findings of this paper indicate that there may be a role for foreign exchange interventions in providing stimulus at the current conjuncture. Deposit insurance reform is a central element in the government strategy to strengthen the Japanese banking system. The unemployment-deflation puzzle in Japan has been explained.
Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1999
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-01-01
Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1999 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.