Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures
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Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures
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Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2015-12-01
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-01 with Political Science categories.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures
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Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Political Science categories.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
The Future Of Global Affairs
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Author : Christopher Ankersen
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-10-01
The Future Of Global Affairs written by Christopher Ankersen and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-01 with Political Science categories.
This book has two aims: first, to examines the evolving role of the state, and non-state actors, coupled with trends – including globalization, populism, post-truth, enlightened capitalism, feminist foreign policy, energy disruption, climate change, emerging cyber and other technologies, and the crisis in UN-centered multilateralism, to offer a prescient assessment of global affairs in the near future; and, second, to solidify the transdisciplinary nature of Global Affairs as a field of study that transcends the traditional conceptual silos.
The Future Of War
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Author : Lawrence Freedman
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2017-10-05
The Future Of War written by Lawrence Freedman and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-05 with History categories.
A new approach to ideas about war, from one of the UK's leading strategic thinkers In 1912 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote a short story about a war fought from underwater submersibles that included the sinking of passenger ships. It was dismissed by the British admirals of the day, not on the basis of technical feasibility, but because sinking civilian ships was not something that any civilised nation would do. The reality of war often contradicts expectations, less because of some fantastic technical or engineering dimension, but more because of some human, political, or moral threshold that we had never imagined would be crossed. As Lawrence Freedman shows, ideas about the causes of war and strategies for its conduct have rich and varied histories which shape predictions about the future. Freedman shows how looking at how the future of war was conceived about in the past (and why this was more often than not wrong) can put into perspective current thinking about future conflicts. The Future of War - which takes us from preparations for the world wars, through the nuclear age and the civil wars which became the focus for debate after the end of the Cold War, to present preoccupations with hybrid and cyber warfare - is filled with fascinating insights from one of the most brilliant military and strategic historians of his generation.
Assessing The Societal Implications Of Emerging Technologies
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Author : Evan S. Michelson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-05-12
Assessing The Societal Implications Of Emerging Technologies written by Evan S. Michelson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-12 with Business & Economics categories.
A growing problem of interest in the field of science and technology policy is that the next generation of innovations is arriving at an accelerating rate, and the governance system is struggling to catch up. Current approaches and institutions for effective technology assessment are ill suited and poorly designed to proactively address the multidimensional, interconnected societal impacts of science and technology advancements that are already taking place and expected to continue over the course of the 21st century. This book offers tangible insights into the strategies deployed by well-known, high-profile organizations involved in anticipating the various societal and policy implications of nanotechnology and synthetic biology. It focuses predominantly on an examination of the practices adopted by the often-cited and uniquely positioned Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies in the United States, as well as being informed by comparisons with a range of institutions also interested in embedding forward-looking perspectives in their respective area of innovation. The book lays out one of the first actionable roadmaps that other interested stakeholders can follow when working toward institutionalizing anticipatory governance practices throughout the policymaking process.
China S Economic Transition 1978 2000 An Alternative Institutional Analysis
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Author : Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
China S Economic Transition 1978 2000 An Alternative Institutional Analysis written by Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with categories.
Report Of Proceedings Town And Country Planning Summer School
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Author : Town and Country Planning Summer School
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Report Of Proceedings Town And Country Planning Summer School written by Town and Country Planning Summer School and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with City planning categories.
Project Interdependence
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Author : Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Project Interdependence written by Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Energy policy categories.
Global Trends 2030
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Author : National Intelligence Council
language : en
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Release Date : 2018-02-07
Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council and has been published by Cosimo Reports this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-07 with categories.
This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.
Reimagining Our Futures Together
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Author : International Commission on the Futures of Education
language : en
Publisher: UNESCO Publishing
Release Date : 2021-11-06
Reimagining Our Futures Together written by International Commission on the Futures of Education and has been published by UNESCO Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-06 with Political Science categories.
The interwoven futures of humanity and our planet are under threat. Urgent action, taken together, is needed to change course and reimagine our futures.