Population Dynamics And Projection Methods
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Population Dynamics And Projection Methods
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Author : John Stillwell
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-02-15
Population Dynamics And Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-15 with Social Science categories.
Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
Population Dynamics In Variable Environments
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Author : Shripad Tuljapurkar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
Population Dynamics In Variable Environments written by Shripad Tuljapurkar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Science categories.
Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to readers interested in population the ory. (Readers looking for background or prerequisites will find much of it in Hal Caswell's Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and in terpretation (Sinauer 1989) ). This book is in essence a progress report and is deliberately brief; I hope that it is not mystifying. I have not attempted to be complete about either the history or the subject, although most sig nificant results and methods are presented.
Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2020-08-12
Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-12 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Demographic Methods
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Author : Andrew Hinde
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-05-12
Demographic Methods written by Andrew Hinde and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-12 with Science categories.
Demography is the study of population structure and change. As modern society becomes ever more complex, it becomes increasingly important to be able to measure accurately all aspects of change in the population, and estimate what its future size and composition might be. This book describes and explains the methods demographers use to analyse population data. Looking at mortality and fertility, population dynamics and population projection, nuptiality and migration, Hinde demonstrates that most demographic methods are applications of certain fundamental principles. This book covers material taught in introductory courses in population analysis, while also including more advanced topics such as parity progression ratios, survival analysis and birth interval analysis. Most chapters are followed by a range of exercises, and a comprehensive set of solutions to these exercises is provided at the end of the book. Quattro and Excel spreadsheet files containing data for all the numerical exercises, plus some additional files of data from recent census and surveys, are available via the Internet.
State And Local Population Projections
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Author : Stanley K. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2005-12-21
State And Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-12-21 with Social Science categories.
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Sensitivity Analysis Matrix Methods In Demography And Ecology
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Author : Hal Caswell
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-02
Sensitivity Analysis Matrix Methods In Demography And Ecology written by Hal Caswell and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-02 with Social Science categories.
This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.
Cities Transformed
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Author : Mark R. Montgomery
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-10-31
Cities Transformed written by Mark R. Montgomery and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-31 with Political Science categories.
Over the next 20 years, most low-income countries will, for the first time, become more urban than rural. Understanding demographic trends in the cities of the developing world is critical to those countries - their societies, economies, and environments. The benefits from urbanization cannot be overlooked, but the speed and sheer scale of this transformation presents many challenges. In this uniquely thorough and authoritative volume, 16 of the world's leading scholars on urban population and development have worked together to produce the most comprehensive and detailed analysis of the changes taking place in cities and their implications and impacts. They focus on population dynamics, social and economic differentiation, fertility and reproductive health, mortality and morbidity, labor force, and urban governance. As many national governments decentralize and devolve their functions, the nature of urban management and governance is undergoing fundamental transformation, with programs in poverty alleviation, health, education, and public services increasingly being deposited in the hands of untested municipal and regional governments. Cities Transformed identifies a new class of policy maker emerging to take up the growing responsibilities. Drawing from a wide variety of data sources, many of them previously inaccessible, this essential text will become the benchmark for all involved in city-level research, policy, planning, and investment decisions. The National Research Council is a private, non-profit institution based in Washington, DC, providing services to the US government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The editors are members of the Council's Panel on Urban Population Dynamics.
Inverse Projection Techniques
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Author : Elisabetta Barbi
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2004-03-23
Inverse Projection Techniques written by Elisabetta Barbi and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-03-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Inverse Projection is a method for estimating accurate demographic indicators of a population where vital registration data are available, but population censuses are lacking or unreliable. The book offers an overview of the present state of methodological development in the field of inverse projection techniques. In the various chapters of the book, leading experts in demography and related fields review the method, discuss recent extensions, test performances, and stress differences of the various procedures. The book is intended for all scientists who are interested in the reconstruction of demographic scenarios in particular situations, with specific kinds of data, as well as for statisticians and mathematicians who are attracted by this fascinating field of application.
A Practitioner S Guide To State And Local Population Projections
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Author : Stanley K. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-16
A Practitioner S Guide To State And Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-16 with Social Science categories.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Ecosystem Services For Well Being In Deltas
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Author : Robert J. Nicholls
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-05-29
Ecosystem Services For Well Being In Deltas written by Robert J. Nicholls and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-29 with Science categories.
This book answers key questions about environment, people and their shared future in deltas. It develops a systematic and holistic approach for policy-orientated analysis for the future of these regions. It does so by focusing on ecosystem services in the world’s largest, most populous and most iconic delta region, that of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. The book covers the conceptual basis, research approaches and challenges, while also providing a methodology for integration across multiple disciplines, offering a potential prototype for assessments of deltas worldwide. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas analyses changing ecosystem services in deltas; the health and well-being of people reliant on them; the continued central role of agriculture and fishing; and the implications of aquaculture in such environments.The analysis is brought together in an integrated and accessible way to examine the future of the Ganges Brahmaputra delta based on a near decade of research by a team of the world’s leading scientists on deltas and their human and environmental dimensions. This book is essential reading for students and academics within the fields of Environmental Geography, Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy focused on solving the world’s most critical challenges of balancing humans with their environments. This book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.