Possibility For Decision
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Decision Probability And Utility
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Author : Peter Gärdenfors
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1988-04-29
Decision Probability And Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.
Possibility For Decision
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Author : Christer Carlsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2011-08-27
Possibility For Decision written by Christer Carlsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-27 with Computers categories.
This book starts with the basic concepts of fuzzy sets and progresses through a normative view on possibility distributions and OWA operators in multiple criteria decisions. Five applications (that all build on experience from solving complex real world problems) of possibility distributions to strategic decisions about closing/not closing a production plant using fuzzy real options, portfolio selection with imprecise future data, predictive probabilities and possibilities for risk assessment in grid computing, fuzzy ontologies for process industry, and design (and implementation) of mobile value services are presented and carefully discussed. It can be useful for researchers and students working in soft computing, real options, fuzzy decision making, grid computing, knowledge mobilization and mobile value services.
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Author : Dirk Wendt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 1975-12-31
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by Dirk Wendt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975-12-31 with Social Science categories.
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Possibility For Decision
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Author : Christer Carlsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-07-25
Possibility For Decision written by Christer Carlsson and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-25 with Computers categories.
This book starts with the basic concepts of fuzzy sets and progresses through a normative view on possibility distributions and OWA operators in multiple criteria decisions. Five applications (that all build on experience from solving complex real world problems) of possibility distributions to strategic decisions about closing/not closing a production plant using fuzzy real options, portfolio selection with imprecise future data, predictive probabilities and possibilities for risk assessment in grid computing, fuzzy ontologies for process industry, and design (and implementation) of mobile value services are presented and carefully discussed. It can be useful for researchers and students working in soft computing, real options, fuzzy decision making, grid computing, knowledge mobilization and mobile value services.
Elementary Decision Theory
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Author : Herman Chernoff
language : en
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Release Date : 2012-04-26
Elementary Decision Theory written by Herman Chernoff and has been published by Courier Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-26 with Mathematics categories.
"The text is very clearly written [with] many illustrative examples and exercises [and] should be considered by those instructors who would like to introduce a more modern (and a more logical) approach in a basic course in statistics." —Journal of the American Statistical Association This volume is a well-known, well-respected introduction to a lively area of statistics. Professors Chernoff and Moses bring years of professional expertise as classroom teachers to this straightforward approach to statistical problems. And happily, for beginning students, they have by-passed involved computational reasonings which would only confuse the mathematical novice. Developed from nine years of teaching statistics at Stanford, the book furnishes a simple and clear-cut method of exhibiting the fundamental aspects of a statistical problem. Beginners will find this book a motivating introduction to important mathematical notions such as set, function and convexity. Examples and exercises throughout introduce new topics and ideas. The first seven chapters are recommended for beginning courses in the basic ideas of statistics and require only a knowledge of high school math. These sections include material on data processing, probability and random variables, utility and descriptive statistics, uncertainty due to ignorance of the state of nature, computing Bayes strategies and an introduction to classical statistics. The last three chapters review mathematical models and summarize terminology and methods of testing hypotheses. Tables and appendixes provide information on notation, shortcut computational formulas, axioms of probability, properties of expectations, likelihood ratio test, game theory, and utility functions. Authoritative, yet elementary in its approach to statistics and statistical theory, this work is also concise, well-indexed and abundantly equipped with exercise material. Ideal for a beginning course, this modestly priced edition will be especially valuable to those interested in the principles of statistics and scientific method.
Statistics And Probability Theory
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Author : Michael Havbro Faber
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-03-23
Statistics And Probability Theory written by Michael Havbro Faber and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-23 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book provides the reader with the basic skills and tools of statistics and probability in the context of engineering modeling and analysis. The emphasis is on the application and the reasoning behind the application of these skills and tools for the purpose of enhancing decision making in engineering. The purpose of the book is to ensure that the reader will acquire the required theoretical basis and technical skills such as to feel comfortable with the theory of basic statistics and probability. Moreover, in this book, as opposed to many standard books on the same subject, the perspective is to focus on the use of the theory for the purpose of engineering model building and decision making. This work is suitable for readers with little or no prior knowledge on the subject of statistics and probability.
Probability In Decision Making
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Author : Matthew Evanoff
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019-11-08
Probability In Decision Making written by Matthew Evanoff and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-08 with categories.
Probability In Decision Making explores the ways by and reasons for which we make decisions, and how probability affects each factor. If the decisions we make define who we are, then every decision is an important one even if it doesn't seem like it.
Making Decisions
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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985
Making Decisions written by Dennis V. Lindley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Business & Economics categories.
Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index
The Logic Of Decision
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Author : Richard C. Jeffrey
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1965
The Logic Of Decision written by Richard C. Jeffrey and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1965 with Statistical decision categories.
Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets And Possibility Theory
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Author : J. Kacprzyk
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets And Possibility Theory written by J. Kacprzyk and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.