Potential Growth In Emerging Asia
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Potential Growth In Emerging Asia
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Author : Rahul Anand
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-13
Potential Growth In Emerging Asia written by Rahul Anand and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : Ms.Pritha Mitra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-03-20
Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia written by Ms.Pritha Mitra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by 3⁄4 of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
Potential Growth Of Australia And New Zealand In The Aftermath Of The Global Crisis
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Author : Mr.Yan Sun
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-05-01
Potential Growth Of Australia And New Zealand In The Aftermath Of The Global Crisis written by Mr.Yan Sun and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a production function method, this paper assesses the impact of the global crisis on the potential growth of Australia and New Zealand. The two countries have not been hit hard by the global crisis, but have large net external liabilities. The paper finds that the main negative impact of the global crisis is likely to come through higher costs of capital, offset partly by a higher return to capital from strong demand for commodities by emerging Asia. It estimates medium-term potential growth of about 3 percent for Australia and 2. percent for New Zealand, higher than that of many other advanced economies.
Asian Development Outlook 2016
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2016-03-01
Asian Development Outlook 2016 written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Global headwinds notwithstanding, developing Asia will continue to contribute 60% of world growth. Modest recovery in Southeast Asia and sustained growth in India will partly offset continued moderation in the People's Republic of China and associated spillover into neighboring economies. Risks to the growth outlook tilt to the downside: future US interest rate hikes that may intensify global financial volatility, a sharper-than-forecast growth slowdown in the People's Republic of China that would hurt regional exports and growth, emerging producer price deflation that may undermine growth in some economies, tepid prices for oil and other commodities, and El Niño. This edition highlights the need to invigorate developing Asia's potential growth, whose decline since its 2007 peak explains much of the region's growth slowdown since the global financial crisis. To ensure a healthy future for potential growth, Asia must employ the full range of policy responses to augment labor supply, improve labor productivity, enhance institutional quality, and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Emerging China
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Author : Sudhir T. Devare
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-03-21
Emerging China written by Sudhir T. Devare and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-21 with Political Science categories.
This volume seeks to examine the evolving contours of Asian multilateralism through emerging China and how it is likely to impact on the growth trajectories of Asian countries. From this perspective, it explores the prospects for ‘partnership’ in Asia, especially in terms of China’s engagement with its principal Asian neighbours, especially India. A substantial part of the volume is devoted to debating China–India relations, highlighting their mutual stakes through their economic and security cooperation as well as their engagement with other countries and regional forums. The book furthers the understanding of the rise of China from an Indian perspective while simultaneously locating China’s rise in the economic dynamics of an emerging Asia. The volume offers illuminating viewpoints, analyses and insights from multiple perspectives, mixed with academic rigour and up-to-date information. It will be of interest to those engaged in economics, politics, trade relations, Indo-China relations, foreign policy, area studies, public policy, and strategic studies.
Potential Growth In Asia And Its Determinants
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Author : Matteo Lanzafame
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Potential Growth In Asia And Its Determinants written by Matteo Lanzafame and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This paper contributes to the literature on growth in Asia in several respects. I provide estimates of potential growth for 21 Asian economies using an aggregate supply model with time-varying parameters and a Kalman filtering methodology. My estimates indicate that the actual growth slowdown experienced by many of these economies in the 2000s is associated with a falling trajectory in potential growth. Relying on Bayesian model averaging, I select robust determinants of potential growth and find that the latter is driven by the technology gap, trade, tertiary education, and institutional quality, as well as by working-age population growth. Effective reforms in these areas can help counterbalance declines in potential growth in Asia. I also investigate the relationship between business cycle features and potential growth, finding that higher volatility in actual growth has significantly negative effects on potential growth. Thus, stabilization policies can have beneficial effects on Asian economies' long-term growth performance.
Global Strategies For Emerging Asia
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Author : Anil K. Gupta
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-07-03
Global Strategies For Emerging Asia written by Anil K. Gupta and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The multinational corporate guide for thriving in the Asian marketplace Led by China and India, the rise of emerging Asia is transforming the structure of the global economy. By 2025, if not sooner, China will almost certainly overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest economy. By then, India is likely to have overtaken Japan to become the world's third largest economy, after China and the U.S. Besides China and India, Asia also includes other fast-growing economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Added together, by 2025, these developments are likely to make Asia's economy larger than those of the U.S. and Europe combined. It is clear that, for every large company, leadership in Asia is rapidly becoming critical for leadership globally. This important resource brings together the latest ideas and in-depth case analyses from leading academics and practitioners to provide a comprehensive guide to succeeding in Asia. Explores how to develop a strategy to benefit from new patterns of 21st century trade Explains how companies can fight and win against low-cost competition from Asian companies Shows how to transfer homegrown management practices to Asia Reveals how to safeguard the company's intellectual property in China Brings to light how to leverage India as a platform to revitalize the company's innovation capabilities A resource for competing in today's international market, this book offers executives and managers a guide for navigating the new global reality—that of Asia as the world's emerging center of gravity.
Demographic Transitions And Economic Miracles In Emerging Asia
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Author : David E. Bloom
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Demographic Transitions And Economic Miracles In Emerging Asia written by David E. Bloom and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Asia categories.
The demographic transition a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility has been more dramatic in East Asia during this century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this essay shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia's so-called economic miracle. The 'miracle' occurred in part because East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster pace than its dependent population during the period 1965-1990, thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occured because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate that population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working-age populations are growing at different rates. An important implication of these results is that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia.
The Economic And Political Growth Pattern Of Asiapacific
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Author : Lloyd R. Vasey
language : en
Publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian
Release Date : 1977
The Economic And Political Growth Pattern Of Asiapacific written by Lloyd R. Vasey and has been published by Institute of Southeast Asian this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Business & Economics categories.
The papers and proceedings of a a conference organized by the Institute and the Pacific Forum, Honolulu, on 7-10 July 1976. Contents include papers submitted by international bankers and other specialists under the following chapter headings: The Emerging Politico-Economic Setting, New Economic Patterns and Trends, Foreign Investment and the New Environment, The Emerging Non-Market Economies in Asia - China and Vietnam: Their Potential Impact on the Region. Additionally, Committee Reports - on the The Political Outlook and its Impact on Economic Progress, Emerging Economic Patterns and Policies and the Impact on Economic Development, and Investment Policies and Proposals - and two Conference Background Papers on 'Perceptions of Future Stability in Asia-Pacific' and 'Asia-Pacific and the Emerging Economic Order' are included. Contains a list of participants and a transcript of discussion sessions.
Asia And Pacific Small States Raising Potential Growth And Enhancing Resilience To Shocks
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-02-20
Asia And Pacific Small States Raising Potential Growth And Enhancing Resilience To Shocks written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards. These countries are particularly vulnerable because of their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, lack of economies of scale, limited access to international capital markets, exposure to shocks (including climate change), and heavy reliance on aid. In providing public services, they face higher fixed government costs relative to other states because public services must be provided regardless of their small population size. Low access to credit by the private sector is an impediment to inclusive growth. Capacity constraints are another key challenge. The small states also face more limited policy tools. Five out of 13 countries do not have a central bank and the scope for diversifying their economies is narrow. Given their large development needs, fiscal policies have been, at times, pro-cyclical. Within the Asia-Pacific small states group, the micro states are subject to more vulnerability and macroeconomic volatility than the rest of the Asia-Pacific small states.